973
FXUS64 KLCH 110511
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1211 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mild and very dry forecast is anticipated through most of the
  coming week.

- With low afternoon relative humidity, there will be an elevated
  risk for grass and marsh fires through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A surface ridge stretches from the Ohio Valley into Texas this
morning while a ridge aloft is centered over SW TX and northern
Mexico. The front that passed through the region a couple days ago
has pushed well south to around the Yucatan Peninsula and south
Florida.

Not much change is anticipated through the short term. The surface
ridge is forecast to shift slowly east which will turn the flow
back east to southeast by Sunday, and an area of low pressure
will move north along the frontal boundary over Florida to near
the Carolina coast. As the surface low lifts north the northerly
flow over the SE states will continue to push a drier airmass into
the northern gulf coast and into the gulf waters. Although the
winds will become more onshore by Sunday, dewpoints will be slow
to moderate into the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The upper ridge currently centered over SW TX will shift overhead
and strengthen early next week. High temps will remain well above
normal as this occurs. Thankfully a drier airmass will continue to
be driven south around a mid Atlantic low into the northern gulf
coast. While highs will generally be in the 90s, humidity will be on
the lower side. Morning lows will be in the 60s.

The pattern will be slow to change late in the extended period, and
low end rain chances may finally return by Friday and Saturday. The
ridge over the area is forecast to slowly shift east and weaken as
a short wave moves into the Rockies. Another weaker upper
disturbance may affect the local area late in the week possibly
allowing for at least isolated convection.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions with light northeast winds during the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

High pressure will remain in control of the forecast through at
least the middle of next work week resulting in a prolonged period
of low winds and seas and dry, clear skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Expect dry with warm temperatures but persistent light northeast
winds to prevail over the weekend between upper ridge developing
in east central Texas and upper trough developing to the east.
Temps will top out in the upper 80s to low 90s each day through
the mid week as high pressure sits right overhead.

No notable Gulf fetch expected to return until perhaps the middle
of next week. This will result in a prolonged period of low
humidities each day. Minimum RH values 25 to 35 percent can be
expected. Overnight maximum RH values from 75 to 95 percent give
indication that moisture will not rebound completely each night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  57  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  86  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  85  60  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  86  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05