309
FXUS64 KLCH 220437
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1137 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory tomorrow as dry and hot weather is forecast over
  the next few days with heat indices ranging up to 108F during
  the mid afternoons across the region.

- Heat will continue to build across the region through the middle
  of the week with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

- Rain chances increase toward the end of work week into this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Mid to upper-level ridging is centered over the Gulf Coast and
will be the main weather feature for the short-term forecast. Heat
is the main concern, with dangerous heat on Tuesday and likely
Wednesday. A heat advisory will be in effect for all of the region
including down to the coast, with heat index values expected to
climb above 105F while actual temperatures reach the mid to upper
90s. In addition, several locations in central Louisiana and
southeast Texas could break into the triple digits, with multiple
locations having a low probability (20%) of reaching the century
mark. Beyond just the temperature on the thermometer, Wet Bulb
Globe Temp (WBGT) and Apparent Temperatures are highlighting noon
to 5 pm as the hottest parts of the day. If you do need to be
outside during that timeframe, make sure to take heat precautions
and know the signs of heat illness! The hot weather will continue
into Wednesday, with the Heat Risk matrix showing major impacts
across the area. Additional heat advisories will be possible on
Wednesday.

Rain will be limited over the next two days as the upper-level
ridge will limit any convection that does try to form. Forecast
soundings show our mid-levels are dry, with mid-RH values around
30 to 40%. PoPs will be kept on the low end, around 10%, with the
sea-breeze providing the best chance for any convection to form.

Our weather pattern will start to change on Wednesday as a surge
of moisture moves from the northern Gulf into our area. This
change will be rapid, with Ensemble tables showing our PWAT values
going from the 10th percentile to the 99th percentile in around 12
hours, very much a bust to boom scenario. The WPC has placed a
Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding over our area, and
we will watch this setup closely, especially in the long-term
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Overcast skies and widespread rain will limit the heat on Thursday
and Friday as a surge of tropical moisture pushes our PWATs above
2 inches across the region. This setup will be very similar to the
rain event last week when 93L impacted the Gulf Coast. The NHC has
not placed a new invest area on the coast, but we still expect
widespread heavy rain across Southeast Texas and Southwest
Louisiana. This will be a system we will monitor closely as the
WPC has placed the CWA under a marginal risk for flash flooding on
both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Latest upper air analysis places high pressure ridge right
overtop Louisiana. This has resulted in nearly-clear and calming
conditions. Under clear skies overnight and with little to no
mixing, areas of patchy fog may develop across portions of the
area. Those sites with greatest chance are AEX, LFT and ARA where
moisture is better pooled, thus TEMPO groups mention 4 to 5 SM VIS
at these sites from 12 to 14Z. Any fog will mix out after
sunrise.

High pressure will continue meandering over the region into
Tuesday, largely diminishing any rainfall threat. Scattered cloud
cover in the 3500 to 4000 ft range are expected throughout daytime
hours.
A few isolated showers may develop near LFT and ARA again today,
but with the low confidence, this concern was capped at a Prob30
chance.

Conditions will then improve after sundown once more.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

High pressure will keep conditions calm across the Gulf for the
first half of the week. Waves will remain between 1 and 3 feet
with winds from the south-southwest around 10 knots. A tropical
disturbance will bring increased rain starting Wednesday night and
lasting through Friday. No impacts are expected from this system,
and the NHC does not have an invest area over the Gulf at this
time. As this system approaches, we will continue to refine the
forecast and make updates as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Dry weather for the next few days will be tempered by high RH
values, with minimum RH staying above 50%. Temperatures will
increase into the upper 90s through Wednesday before another surge
of tropical moisture brings more widespread soaking rain across
the entire region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  77  94  76  95 /   0  10   0  10
LFT  77  94  76  95 /   0  20   0  20
BPT  76  94  75  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11