Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
185 FXUS64 KLCH 311136 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 636 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat continues through Saturday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and maximum heat indices of 102-109F. - A weak frontal boundary will move through the region Saturday night into Sunday bringing a 30-70% chance of rain. Some slightly drier air may work into the region Sunday, but both high and low temperatures will remain largely unchanged. - A few, diurnally driven, afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop each day next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Maximum heat index values Thursday afternoon ranged from 100-109. This justified the heat advisory although the majority of locations remained below the threshold. With afternoon highs and dewpoints expected to be very similar this afternoon, a repeat of max heat indices in that range is expected with the majority of the region remaining just below heat advisory criteria. The broad upper level ridge, part of the synoptic scale "omega" block pattern is expected to retrograde west into central and west Texas Friday night into Saturday morning as a somewhat unseasonable upper trough digs south through the central conus with guidance becoming more consistent in a weak frontal boundary making it all the way to the coast. Being the first week of August, it would be too much to ask for any cooler air to make it this far south. However, the boundary will develop some cloud cover along with some showers and thunderstorms as it moves through late Saturday night into Sunday morning. QPF totals are not very impressive, but it will be the first appreciable chance of precip the area has seen in over a week. It does look like the area will see a northwesterly wind shift behind the front Sunday which may drop dewpoints into the lower 70s or possibly even some upper 60s which is about as good as it gets in this part of the world in August. This won`t translate into any actual change in temperatures, but the air may feel a bit less oppressively hot Sunday afternoon. Any reprieve will be short lived as the front washes out over the northern gulf Monday with winds turning back out of the south. The region will spend much of next week on the eastern periphery of the sprawling upper level ridge that will remain entrenched across the southwestern conus. This is expected to allow a few, diurnally driven storms, to develop each afternoon although the coverage will likely be lower than typical owing to the proximity of the ridge as well as limited moisture aloft. Afternoon highs will continue to range in the low to mid 90s each day. Jones && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Moisture is on its return with upper level high pressure starting to relax. This is going to allow for low level cloud cover to return to the forecast period and for some rain chances to begin creeping in after this TAF period. Winds will prevail from the southwest and will mix down to a breeze of around 10 knots with a brief period of gusts to 15 knots possible in the afternoon. Expect VFR CIGs to develop from late morning to early evening within the moist airmass now moving into the region. Otherwise, as the pattern changes and convection develops to the northeast, high clouds will begin invading today. 11 && .MARINE... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Light southwesterly winds and low seas will continue through Saturday. A weak boundary will move through the coastal waters early Sunday which will increase west northwesterly winds to 15-20 knots. The boundary will also increase thunderstorm chances. Light southerly flow becomes reestablished Monday through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hot and humid conditions will continue through Saturday. Rain chances will increase Saturday night into Sunday as an upper level trough and weak frontal boundary approach the area. A brief period of northwesterly winds are expected Sunday bringing some slightly drier air into the region. Minimum RH`s Sunday afternoon are expected to be in the 35-50% range. Winds will turn back out of the south Sunday night into Monday. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day next week. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...11