Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
118 FXUS64 KLCH 160530 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense possible into early this morning and again on Monday morning. - Persistent weather pattern will continue into early next week with above normal temperatures and humidity. - Precipitation chances return Wednesday ahead of the next cold front that will move through the area late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Surface high looks to continue during the period centered off to the east around the northeast Gulf. Low level flow off of the Gulf bringing in warm and humid Gulf air will be noted over the forecast area. Meanwhile, enough upper level ridging will be noted, and this should keep drier air in the mid levels and helping to provide an atmospheric cap over the region. All this will help maintain the unseasonably warm and humid conditions with no chance for significant rainfall. Fog potential during the late night and early morning hours will be the main concern. Some high level clouds moving in tonight may help a little bit, however, temperatures should fall down to near or below what the afternoon dewpoint was, that will help in fog formation. Any dense fog should remain more in patches than widespread, and locations that have residual smoke from earlier burnings, will have the lower visibility. For the next couple of nights, fog probabilities are a little lower as winds above the surface may be a little higher along with increasing high level cloudiness. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 There is still some consistency in the guidance in bringing Pacific energy across the Rockies during the middle to latter part of next week and the upper level ridging over the region breaking down. This will allow for a rather strong upper level low and trough to push a Pacific cold front across the forecast area during the late Thursday into early Friday period at this time. Low level jet brings in copious amounts of Gulf moisture with PWAT values by Thursday around 2 inches, which is over the 90th percentile of climo and near the daily moving max, with mean layer relative humidity values above 80 percent. As the front and upper level trough move across atmosphere potentially could be of a low CAPE high shear one. Therefore, some strong storms and heavy rainfall may be possible, although still too early for specific details. As we get into next weekend, the forecast is of a low confidence as there are differences between the frontal system either clearing the forecast area leaving drier and cooler conditions or moisture hanging around with some chance for rain. Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Currently fog has developed at KLCH with IFR to LIFR conditions. With mainly clear skies and light southerly winds expect widespread fog to form, with some patchy dense, especially over southwest Louisiana and Acadiana. Therefore, conditions will become MVFR at remaining terminals, with IFR to LIFR at times after 16/09z. With daytime heating and an increase in surface winds, fog will mix out by 16/14z, with VFR conditions for the remainder of Sunday. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1127 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 High pressure centered over the northeastern gulf will ridge into the coastal waters into early next week. This will keep mainly light onshore winds and low seas. Onshore flow will increase somewhat by the middle part of next week as low pressure forms over the Southern Plains. The next chance for any significant shower activity will be Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Southerly winds off the Gulf will keep warm and humid conditions in place into early next week. An upper level high over the region will keep any significant rain chance out of the forecast through early next week. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be over 50 percent. Areas of fog being patchy dense, especially near locations with residual smoke will be possible at night and during the early morning hours into Monday morning. The next chance for any significant rainfall will be during the middle to latter part of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 81 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 79 62 82 63 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 80 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 82 62 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07