Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
329 FXUS64 KLCH 101125 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 625 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak disturbance will move across the forecast area today with a probability of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. - Lower rain chances are expected from the middle into the upcoming weekend along with an increase in heat risk as an upper level high pressure ridge builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Slack high pressure will give way to a weak coastal trough moving inland along the TX / LA coastline through this afternoon and evening before dissipating overnight. This feature will offer periods of greater cloud coverage, particularly for south central Louisiana and moderate chances for rainfall. Chances decrease north of HWY 190 considerably. Much of the short term guidance quickly initiates convection mid morning before waning during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will top out in the low 90s and combined with the added humidity, conditions will feel quite muggy. The pattern begins to shift Tuesday as drier air from the Plains works its way south and east. Separation between the easterly trades over the tropics and the active Jet across the northern 48, will produce a region of subsidence over the forecast area. Isolated chances of stray shower / storm cannot be fully ruled out, but as the ridge builds in through the afternoon they continue to decrease. By Wednesday compressional heating from the ridge and light south winds lift temperatures into mid 90s north of I-10. Dry weather is forecast Wednesday through the start of the following weekend. Temperatures will build further toward the mid and upper 90s for interior locations. These conditions may lead to heat headlines for portions of the area depending how surface dewpoints evolve into the latter half of the work week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Showers and thunderstorms will begin to form around 14Z. Conditions near storms will be poor with chaotic and gusty winds along with low ceilings and visibility. Outside of convection conditons will be VFR with high overcast skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 Mainly light south to southeasterly winds with low seas are expected to continue into at least the middle of this week as a surface high pressure system ridge develops across the northern Gulf. Daily chance for showers and thunderstorms through Tues as a weak coastal trough skirts along the northern Gulf waters. The best chance of seeing activity is favored closer to shore during the afternoon hours. Dry conditions return Wednesday and beyond. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026 A brief surge in moisture and a weak disturbance will bring the possibility of widespread rainfall today with minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the 60 to 70 percent range. Tuesday onward, significant rainfall is not expected and this will likely allow the overall antecedent conditions to become drier with an increase in the KBDI through the end of this work week. That said, with low level Gulf moisture from mainly southerly winds, minimum afternoon relative humidity values are expected to range from 50 to 60 percent through Thursday before further decreasing into the following weekend. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...14