575
FXUS64 KLCH 080552
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1252 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Daily scattered to numerous (30-80%) showers and thunderstorms
  are expected each afternoon Tuesday through next weekend as a
  weak upper level low meanders across the northern Gulf.

- While still hot, afternoon highs this week will be tempered by
  cloud cover and thunderstorms enough to remain below heat
  advisory criteria.

- Isolated areas of flash flooding may become possible by the end
  of the week into the weekend. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
  excessive rainfall is in effect for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Surface analysis this evening depicts high pressure centered over
the northern Gulf, putting southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas
in a region of light southerly flow. Aloft, the pattern is dominated
by an expansive 500 mb ridge centered over the Oklahoma-Kansas
border, with an easterly wave analyzed over the northeast Gulf and
Florida peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms from earlier tonight have all but
dissipated, with skies expected to continue clearing overnight. This
will set the stage for the potential for some patchy ground fog to
develop late tonight, particularly for any locations that saw rain
during the day Monday. This fog is not expected to be dense and
will rapidly dissipate with sunrise.

The Southern Plains ridge will begin to expand eastward across the
Deep South tomorrow, as the northeast Gulf easterly wave begins to
move slowly westward along the coast. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are thus expected once again across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, more likely towards the coast where
subsidence from the ridge will be lesser. The environment will be
characterized by strong instability (REFS mean SBCAPE approaching
3000 J/kg) and anomalous, deep moisture (PWAT near 2.1 inches,
around climatological 80th percentile for early September). With
very little deep layer shear to speak of, storm mode will be pulse
convection dominated by mesoscale features such as the sea breeze
and outflow boundaries. Convective allowing model soundings
depict around 1000 J/kg DCAPE and 0-3 km theta-e differences
around 30 K, which suggest at least an isolated wet microburst
wind risk with any stronger updrafts that are able to develop. In
addition to the gusty winds, any storms will be capable of heavy
downpours and frequent lightning.

Temperatures Tuesday will be a few degrees lower than Monday,
owing to the expansion of afternoon cloud cover and rain chances.
Afternoon highs will generally be in the mid 90s, with heat index
values reaching the mid 100s. This is just below heat advisory
criteria, but is still plenty hot, and heat safety precautions are
urged for anyone working or spending time outside.

The upper ridge begins to lift to the north on Wednesday, and
ensemble guidance is in agreement that the ridge will continue to
break down overhead through the end of the week. This will result
in increasing coverage of convection each day, aided by a few
weak shortwave disturbances set to push through. LREF mean PWATs
remain in the 2.0-2.1 inch range, near climatological 75th
percentile, throughout the period. This would favor heavy rainfall
and a threat of some flash flooding concerns, but for most of our
CWA the flooding threat will be limited by dry antecedent
conditions, and thus the latter half of the forecast period is
more likely to be a period of beneficial, much-needed rainfall for
most areas. This is particularly the case for our Louisiana
parishes, which generally did not see much rainfall from Edouard
last week. That being said, an isolated flash flooding risk will
likely exist, mainly for typically prone urban and poorly drained
areas, as well as parts of southeast Texas saturated from
Edouard`s rains. WPC carries a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall for our Louisiana parishes Thursday and then
our entire CWA Friday to address this potential.

The weakening ridge and increased convective activity will bring
temperatures down to levels near mid-September climatological
normals for the latter half of this week into the weekend. This
still means afternoon highs around 90 along the coast and low to
mid 90s inland, but it is a slight cooling trend nonetheless.

64/Silas

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Light and variable winds across the area tonight as skies continue
to clear. Patchy ground fog may reduce visibility to MVFR at times
after 10Z and is most likely for sites that received rainfall
Monday. Any fog will dissipate with sunrise by 13Z. Scattered
cumulus should form during the morning hours. A few showers and
thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon, particularly for
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, but at this time confidence in areal coverage is
too low to mention in TAFs.

Silas

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

High pressure centered over the northern Gulf will bring light
southerly winds and low seas to area waters. A series of
disturbances moving east to west along the Gulf Coast will bring
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A moist airmass will bring a continued threat of afternoon
thunderstorms each day this week as an easterly wave tracks through
the area. Afternoon RH minima each day will range from 50-60 percent
inland to 65-75 percent near the coast. Fire weather concerns should
be minimal through the period, and this rainfall should help put a
dent in ongoing drought conditions across much of the area.

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...64
AVIATION...64