Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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750 FXUS64 KLCH 220304 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 904 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Wx map shows cold surface high pressure ridge across the Central U.S. from Canada to Texas, keeping light northwest winds across the area. Satellite imagery shows clear skies within a 400-500 mile radius of the area. Clear skies and light northwest winds around 5 mph or less with temperatures expected to fall in the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak north of I-10, mid to upper 40s further south. Ongoing forecast on track with no updates needed at this time. 08/DML && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Enjoy another day of picture perfect weather with clear skies, apart from the occasional marsh fire plumes visible even from satellite this afternoon. Temperatures will remain below average, thanks to a reinforcing cold front currently marching south through N LA. As it sweeps across our area, a cooler high pressure will move in then settle overhead by tomorrow night. This is when the atmospheric thermostat takes a sharp dip, bringing the coldest temperatures we`ve seen so far this November. Parts of CenLA have a 50 to 90% chance of seeing freezing temperatures. Elsewhere, expect a chilly night with lows in the mid 30s to 40s across the CWA. Unfortunately, your complimentary fall/winter trial wraps up there. Starting Saturday, a warming trend will begin, gradually pulling temperatures back up as we head into the weekend. The high pressure system will shift offshore near the MS/AL Gulf Coast, allowing southerly winds to become reestablished. Daytime highs will remain near seasonal norms, but Saturday night temperatures will take a modest step up, only falling to the 40s to 50s inland and the lower 60s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 After several cool and pleasant days, warm and humid weather returns on Sunday as onshore flow strengthens between surface high pressure near FL and low pressure in the central Plains. Temperatures top out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees Sun afternoon, amid sunny skies and increasing dewpoints. Moisture return starts out somewhat slow on Sunday, with PWATs expected to remain around average for this time of year however, moisture return starts to ramp up on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. By Monday evening, the front will be near our door step, and PWATs will be closer to the 75th percentile. Overnight Monday into early Tuesday, a small chance of showers is possible area-wide, as the boundary moves into the region and provides support for convection. By sunrise Tuesday this front is expected to be overhead, potentially bisecting the forecast area, as it becomes increasingly slowed down due to lack of upper level support. Very small rain chances continue through Tuesday, generally less than 20%, as this boundary meanders nearby, while a combination of light variable winds and partly cloudy skies will bring a mixed bag of temperatures. Northern areas will likely warm into the low to mid 70s, while along I-10 and near the coast highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s once again. Slightly drier air may filter down into CENLA and interior SE TX, but most of the region will remain within this more humid/moist pattern. Wednesday through the later half of the week, models diverge a bit, with the general consensus being the front lifts back north of the area, opening the door for more moisture return, before potentially sliding south again later in the week in response to an approaching upper level shortwave. It doesn`t look like any drier air will arrive until beyond the end of the long term period, while temperatures will continue to run above seasonal norms through at least Thanksgiving. 17 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Clear skies and light Northerly winds will prevail through the taf period as high pressure becomes centered nearly overhead. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 The high pressure is settling over the region today, causing winds and seas to diminish. Flow turns more southerly by Saturday as high pressure moves east of the region. Winds and seas will slightly elevate again late in the weekend as the next weather system begins taking shape in the central US. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 37 62 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 44 66 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 42 64 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 44 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...66