107
FXUS64 KLCH 081749
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Looks like a wet pattern through the period with a trof
approaching from the west. In addition, Rafael will be meandering
in the gulf. Some of the moisture with Rafael may get pulled
north into the trof as it gets torn apart by shear and drier air.

WPC has the western half of the forecast area in a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall (1 out of 4) today and a slight risk (2 of
4) for much of the area Saturday. Temperatures will continue to be
above normal through the period as well.

With brisk easterly winds and 10 to 13 second wave periods
propagating from Rafael in the coastal waters, tide levels will
gradually increase and a coastal flood advisory will be needed
tonight and some areas may need a warning tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

The new work week will begin with a weak, dry frontal passage Monday
courtesy of a quickly ejecting shortwave moving through the Great
Lakes into Canada. This fropa will have the dual benefit of
advecting some much anticipated lower dewpoints into the region
while also keeping whatever remains of Rafael away from the region.
Afternoon highs will continue to climb into the lower 80s both
Monday and Tuesday, but the drier airmass will allow overnight lows
to fall into the mid to upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

A second, much more progressive shortwave is progged to move quickly
out of the Pacific Northwest across the conus pushing a much
stronger frontal boundary through the region Wednesday. There is a
fairly large spread in guidance regarding how much moisture will be
available for this boundary to tap into to produce convection, but
the majority is leaning drier at present so maintained the NBM
isolated PoPs mention Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
The airmass in the wake of this fropa will quickly bring
temperatures back in line with seasonal normals with afternoon highs
in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s
to upper 50s.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Mostly MVFR BKN/OVC CIGs ongoing and expected to prevail.
Intermittent VCSH/TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon with an
increase in PCPN overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by late today into
the weekend. In addition, winds and seas will begin to ramp up
today, remaining elevated through at least Sun morning and likely
requiring an extended period of small craft advisories. Hurricane
Rafael in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move slowly
over the south central GoM over this weekend and early next week.
For the latest information, visit the National Hurricane Center
website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  67  77  67 /  40  60  70  80
LCH  85  72  80  70 /  30  50  70  60
LFT  86  73  83  72 /  20  30  60  70
BPT  85  72  81  70 /  30  70  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Saturday for LAZ073-074-241-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Saturday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...87