804
FXUS64 KLCH 081124
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
524 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With stable conditions and an increase in low level moisture fog
  will likely become an issue again tonight.

- A sharp Canadian cold front will push through Sunday bringing
  unseasonably cold temperatures early next week. Portions of the
  region may receive their first freeze.

- Gale watch in effect for outer coastal waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

We are still on track for the first freeze of the year as a
robust cold front moves across the region Saturday night and into
Sunday.

Tonight we are looking at another round of dense fog as a
combination of clear skies, high dew points, and light winds all
point to a high probability of another dense fog advisory. Most of
Saturday will be hot as south winds continue to pump warm, moist
Gulf air into the region. Dew points will touch the 70s while
afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s. We could see temperatures
go into the upper 80s due to compressional heating ahead of the
front. Saturday night we will see the cold front sweep across the
CWA. Unfortunately, rain chances look to be less than 20% with
rainfall totals less than a tenth of an inch. Behind the front
will be the first touch of winter as temperatures will plummet 10
to 15 degrees. Sunday will also see an elevated risk for fire
weather as the cold, dry air moves south. A Red Flag Watch may
need to be issued for the entire CWA as ongoing drought conditions
when combined with the gusty winds will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Minimum temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s and there is a
decent chance (~30%) we will see the first freeze of the year.
Overnight Monday and going into Tuesday the cold air advection
will drop temperatures below 32 in central Louisiana and southeast
Texas. Down to the coast, temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 30s with daytime highs in the 50s and 60s. In addition to
the cold, very dry air will drop our dew points into the 20s with
minimum RH values around 20% across the region.

Behind the front, high pressure will build to our east. This will
cause our winds to be from the south and will lead to steadily
rising temperatures. By Wednesday our highs will be back in the
mid to upper 70s and into the 80s by Thursday. Overnight lows will
also rise quickly and will be in the 60s until the end of the
week. Aloft we will be in a stable zonal pattern with the next
chance of rain coming on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of fog, some which has become dense, will continue through
the next couple of hours, burning off within the 14/15Z time
frame. Light mainly SW winds and VFR conditions will then prevail
through the remainder of the day into this evening. Tonight, winds
initially continue to relax, which will allow for another round of
fog to form. As we approach 12Z tomorrow, a cold front will sweep
through the area turning wind to the north and causing them to
quickly strengthen and become gusty. This should allow for any
ongoing fog to burn off quickly, likely prior to sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  53  67  33 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  83  59  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  84  59  69  37 /  10  10   0   0
BPT  85  58  72  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...17