408
FXUS64 KLCH 040404
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1104 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Muggy conditions will continue to support diurnally driven
  showers as high temperatures gradually increase through the
  remainder of the work week

- Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires will waft in and out of the
  forecast area over the next couple of days

- Unsettled weather next week will lean 40-50% above normal with
  respect to precipitation

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Moderate high pressure currently centers off the Carolina coast
this afternoon with low level ridging extending into the central
Gulf as noted on the 18Z sounding. Concurrently an upper level
closed low pressure is slow moving across the Florida peninsula.
This trough will undergo some modification across the SECONUS with
some retrograde evolution along the western Florida panhandle. As
this occurs through Wednesday afternoon a secondary orphaned frontal
pattern while downstream shortwave races east across the Canadian
Maritimes. Locally, this pattern will facilitate pop-up shower /
thunderstorms, generally on an isolated scale through Thursday
evening. Highs will trend around par for climatological norms in the
upper 80`s to around 90F. Meanwhile a slight warming trend in lows
will take place as low level moisture advection continues from the
Gulf waters.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

By Friday, an upper level ridge will have strengthened across Mexico
with the stronger confluent flow extending from North Texas across
the Ohio Valley. Windshear aloft increases leading to convergence
along the coastal zones. This shifts the more favorable regions for
isolated to scattered precip to occur toward Acadiana and SELA.
Again, much of this activity is associated with typical summertime
weather where little synoptic forcing is in place. Worth noting,
temperatures are forecast to increase into the weekend as pressure
subsidence increases due to the upper level ridge building over
Mexico.

The pattern becomes further unsettled upon the start of the upcoming
work week, Monday. The pattern remains fairly active across the
northern CONUS. A shortwave trough is forecast to shift over the
Great Lakes region and likely undergo some modification on the
southern fringe. While some guidance is very excited to bring up the
PoPs during this time, it`s very suspect to see robust frontogenesis
develop toward the Gulf Coast while trending further into
meteorological summer. For now, precipitation is kept in the
forecast during the early week ahead, but will caution potential
changes toward drier conditions. At the very least precipitation
will often be conditional on instability or dry layers likely to
persist in the mid-level as per course of the ridge pattern to our
SW. That said, CPC keeps roughly a 40% chance of above normal
precipitation during this period and further through the 12th,
beyond the scope of this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period, however
brief MVFR ceilings and br may occur around or just after sunrise
at KAEX. Winds will be light and southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Light to occasionally modest southeast to south winds will
continue through Friday, becoming more south to southwesterly over
the weekend. This will allow for continuous low seas generally
from 1-3 feet. In addition, there will be a daily chance of mainly
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms beginning Wednesday through
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  90  71  92 /   0  10   0  20
LCH  73  88  74  90 /   0  20   0  20
LFT  72  89  73  90 /   0  40   0  40
BPT  74  90  75  91 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14