010
FXUS64 KLCH 232334
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
534 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

A beautiful and seasonal afternoon is ongoing across the Gulf
Coast, as surface high pressure centered over MS dominates the
forecast for a bit longer. Clear skies and light winds have
allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s once
again this afternoon, while dewpoints range from the mid 30s to
mid 40s. Temps may warm another degree or two through the next
hour or so, before steadily falling as we approach sunset and
beyond.

Tonight, slow and steady moisture returns begins as surface high
pressure slides east and winds turn southeasterly overhead.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the mid 40s to low 50s
across most of the region, which is near seasonal norms, with the
exception being lower SE TX and coastal SW LA. Across these area,
moisture return looks to pick up fairly quickly with dewpoints
rising into the mid to upper 50s by sunrise, therefore temps will
only be allowed to fall to a similar degree.

Tomorrow moisture return ramps up quite a bit as onshore flow
becomes well established at the surface and the flow aloft becomes
zonal overhead. Dewpoints are forecasted to rise quickly through
the day, which will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 70s to
low 80s tomorrow afternoon. In addition, overnight lows tomorrow
will only fall into the 60s, which is generally around 15 degrees
above seasonal norms. Precip wise, dry conditions will continue
tomorrow so if you don`t mind a little extra humidity it should
still be a good day to get outside.

A similar pattern continue through Monday, with just slightly
warmer temps and a bit more cloud cover. However, late Monday into
Tuesday rain chances return to the forecast ahead of an
approaching cold front that will make its way into the region
overnight. The better forcing with this front will exist further
to our NE which should keep thunderstorms to a minimum overhead however,
with plenty of moisture available to work with scattered shower
activity is likely overnight into Tuesday morning.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The long term begins with a cold front draped overhead or just off
the coast, with potentially a few showers still ongoing over
lower Acadiana Tuesday morning. Any lingering convection should
come to an end through the morning giving way to a rather nice day
area-wide. The frontal passage will bring a small shot of drier
and cooler air that will allow for mostly sunny skies and highs in
the upper 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday. Dry air will be most
apparent inland and across SE TX, with moisture still lingering a
bit across Acadiana.

Just as quickly as this shot of seasonal weather arrives, it will
vanish, as onshore flow returns overnight Tuesday into early
Wednesday and allows moisture to quickly increase once again.
Wednesday morning will bring a mixed bag of low temps, with inland
areas falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s. On the other hand,
areas along and south of I-10 will likely only fall into the mid
50s to lower 60s due to increasing dewpoints. Dewpoints then rise
quickly area-wide post sunrise Wednesday, with afternoon highs
again topping out in the mid 70s to upper 80s. Cloud cover will
also likely fill in through the day however, showers should hold
off for a bit longer until the arrival of the next cold front on
Thursday.

To say next week`s weather will give you whiplash might be
putting it lightly, with the second half of the week bringing a
significant shot of colder air in the wake of a Thanksgiving Day
cold front. Guidance has moved the arrival of this front up a bit,
with the boundary now expected to swing through during Thursday
afternoon being accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Rain
chances remain slightly elevated through much of Thursday, before
gradually tapering off Thursday evening into Thursday night. This
is when the much colder and drier air will arrive with Fri morning
lows expected to fall into the 40s area-wide. Strong cold air
advection will then bring below normal temps from Friday into next
weekend, with NBM currently painting highs in the upper 50s to
mid 60s for both days. These temps will be accompanied by ample
sunshine and low dewpoints, making for a very nice end to the
Thanksgiving holiday week.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

High pressure resting along the central Gulf Coast will remain in
place and broaden through Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, VFR
conditions to remain in place through the nocturnal hours.
Guidance is suggestive of slight VIS reduction for interior
locations. However, with very dry air aloft, any BR would be
patchy and temporary. VFR conditions to remain after sunrise
through Sun afternoon.

30


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Onshore flow will become well established overnight into tomorrow,
as high pressure departs to our east. A cold front late Monday
into Tuesday will produce a brief wind shift, but southerly winds
will re-develop and strengthen by Wednesday ahead of another front
that will arrive late in the week. Dry conditions are expected
through Monday, with small rain chances returning by early
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  75  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  51  78  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  48  76  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  57  81  66  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30