631
FXUS64 KLCH 010528
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazy skies forecast this afternoon into tomorrow with diurnally
  driven convection expected through the work week and into the
  weekend.

- An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid
  conditions.

- No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

An upper-level ridge is centered over the Four Corners region of
the U.S. and will be the dominant feature in the short term
forecast. This ridge will continue to strengthen overhead, with
500 mb heights remaining above 590 dm as we move into the work
week. Temperatures will rise as rain chances decrease. During the
first half of the week, PoPs will drop into the 2030% range,
with higher chances in Acadiana. Convection will peak in the
afternoon, with the sea breeze serving as the primary trigger for
storm development. Throughout the week, PWAT values will remain
near 2 inches, supporting convection and the potential for locally
heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will be the main forecast concern in both the short
and long term, rising into the mid-90s along the coast and the
upper 90s in interior of southeast Texas and central Louisiana by
midweek. Heat index values will reach the triple digits each day,
although probabilities for exceeding the 105F threshold for a
heat advisory remain low (>10%). Nevertheless, this will be a very
hot and humid week, and staying cool should be a priority.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Heat will remain the primary concern heading into the holiday
weekend, as temperatures continue to rise. NBM probabilities
indicate a low chance (25%) for high temperatures to reach the
triple digits in Alexandria on Independence Day, with better
chances later in the weekend (40%). Across the rest of the region,
the likelihood of triple-digit temperatures remains lower less
than 20%, but temperatures reaching 95F are likely, with
probabilities around 80% along and north of the I-10 corridor.
Still, we can`t rule out the potential for a Heat Advisory over
the weekend. Be sure to stay cool and hydrated!

Showers and thunderstorms will remain isolated, with afternoon
chances ranging from 20% to 40%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions will persist overnight with ceilings staying
broken above FL250. Winds will remain light and primarily from the
south as high pressure builds overhead. The forecast brings VCTS
back tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Surface high pressure remains located in the Gulf causing light
winds and calm seas. Current buoy readings show seas around 2 to 3
feet with ASCAT showing winds around 5 to 15 knots from the
south. Conditions will remain on the calm side with through most
of the week. The NHC has placed a 20% invest area in the eastern
Gulf but no impacts are expected in the next 5 days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Rain chances will decrease over the next few days as an upper-
level ridge builds overhead. Surface high pressure will continue
to push moisture north with minimum RH values staying near 50%.
KBDI values have risen over the past few weeks now reaching the
400-500 range across much of Louisiana with high values in central
Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  73  94  73 /  50  20  30  10
LCH  93  77  93  76 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  92  76  91  75 /  30  20  60  20
BPT  93  75  94  75 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14