483
FXUS64 KLCH 040553
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Maximum heat indices top out in the 100 to 105F range through
  the weekend. Gradual increase in heat next work week.

- Weakness aloft may bring about scattered to numerous showers
  and thunderstorms during the holiday afternoon and evening.

- No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The big topic... will Fourth of July celebrations be rained /
stormed out? Guidance up to this evening painted a scenario very
similar to today: scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the area Friday afternoon and evening. However now, it
looks like only scattered showers through the morning and
afternoon before everything clears out in the early evening.

Not sure what has caused this sharp turn in guidance. Perhaps
models now hold onto the ridge a bit longer today causing storm
suppression.

I`m not ready to bite on the scenario that things remain dry.
Shortwave moving across north central Texas, falling heights and
pooling moisture should all be in place today which give
indication of at least scattered convection during the afternoon
and early evening. It`s best to prepare for thunder when a
largely-outdoor holiday is about to unfold, then celebrate if the
drier outcome reigns supreme.

Further increases in PoPs are expected Saturday and Sunday with
low pressure moving over the northeast Gulf and weakness
developing aloft. Expect at least scattered rain chances both of
these days. The good thing? Cloud cover keeping high temps in
check. Highs should top out in the lower/mid 90s today, then mid
90s Sat and Sun.
Maximum Heat Indices will range in the 100 to 105F through the
short term period.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Upper level weakness meandering over the region Monday into the
early work week will allow for a return to the Summertime
Special: hot, humid and daily pop-up showers/storms / seabreeze
activity.

Temperatures appear to hold in check in the mid 90s, close to
climo normals, for Monday thru Wednesday. Later in the period,
high pressure attempts to ridge over the western Gulf/southeast
Texas. This shutoff of cloud cover and waning rain chances would
result in highs nudging back into the mid to upper 90s.

Heat indices appear to remain in the 100 to 105F range on Monday.
However, as high pressure attempts to build in, we could see a
gradual increase in maximum HIs to widespread 105F and above by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No changes since the previous TAF package, with a rather quiet
period on tap. Light to calm winds and high clouds will continue
through the remainder of the overnight hours. Areas of patchy fog
will be possible at AEX near sunrise, similarly to the last
several days. Light winds mainly out of the south and broken to
overcast high clouds continue throughout the daytime hours. Areas
of scattered convection will be possibly through the midday into
the late afternoon hours, with the best chance for precip still
expected to be across Acadiana.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure area situated over the northern Gulf, while weak and
meandering at times, will result in light, variable winds and low
seas through the start of next week. During the same time frame,
expansive low over the Florida peninsula expands into the
northeast Gulf. This feature will result in general weakness
aloft and a return to typical summertime pattern of onshore flow
and low seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Weakness developing overhead will bring about the return of
scattered showers and thunderstorms from today through the start
of next work week. Moisture has worked down from aloft, degrading
the dry airmass recently in place. Outside of thunderstorm
activity, minimum RH values in the 50 to 60 percent range can be
expected today with overall light flow.
Weak ridging moves overhead Saturday and Sunday resulting in
daytime RH minimums in the 40 to 50 percent range and only
scattered chances for thunderstorms.

Warmth and typical summertime pattern return for much of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
LCH  92  75  95  75 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  90  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
BPT  93  75  94  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...17