Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
999 FXUS64 KLCH 212326 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 626 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A trough will move into the forecast area today and linger into Friday bringing a decent chance for thunderstorms. With the expected high moisture content of the atmosphere, heavy rainfall will be possible. - A building high pressure system over the Mountain West is expected to bring a dry northwest flow into the forecast area over the weekend with lower rain chances and less humid conditions. - Another weak cold front may enter the area by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A shortwave trough extending from Appalachia into central Texas will sink southward toward the Gulf Coast tonight and stall for couple days before diminishing just offshore. This pattern will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Friday night. Taking a deeper dive, a weak surface trough is developing offshore TX/LA Gulf Coast which is leading to relatively high observed PWATs within the 75th-90th percentile. Though sfc-3km shear is expected to remain low, around 25kts or less, weak perturbations aloft along with sufficient MLCAPE around 1500-2500J/kg will help develop scattered activity this afternoon and Friday with appreciable chances of precipitation. Highs will trend toward the upper 80`s to lower 90`s under this humid airmass. By Saturday, the stalled frontal system / coastal troughing will meander further offshore. However, as this feature lingers, PoPs do trend a higher gradient of chances south of the I-10 corridor. Here, land / seabreeze interactions will likely result in more activity in this region compared to further north over CenLA where chances are much lower. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Trending into the long range, a longwave trough will deepen over Southern Canada into the Midwest. Day time highs wills warm further into the mid 90`s once again. Smaller shortwave troughs embedded within the feature will amplify further south as the closed upper level low rotates south of the Hudson Bay(Canada) into next week. Locally, drier conditions will initially take place ahead of the boundary Sunday and Monday with the exception of a few isolated showers / storms that develop during the afternoons. As this boundary also slows toward the coast, precipitation pattern becomes a little more unsettled with moderate chances of showers and storms. The upper level trough will begin to shift east of the Mississippi by Wednesday night as the boundary attempts to move toward the coast. Guidance is somewhat fuzzy on how much cooler air infiltrates toward the coast. Though, the general idea is that light northerly breezes will help mix dry and cooler air in from the north and may offer a brief repreive from the heat. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Periods of lower vis and ceiling can be anticipated through sunset as numerous showers and storms develop and dissipate. Additional convection is expected Friday afternoon, however overnight and through early morning mostly VFR conditions are anticipated. Winds will be generally light and north, but gusty winds will be possible in storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A trough will move toward the coast from the north on Thursday stalling along the coast on Friday. This trough will help bring an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms during any time of day through Friday. More typical scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly late night and early morning, and again in the afternoon will be in the forecast over the weekend as troughing remains offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A weak frontal boundary will move into the region this afternoon. Moisture will increase further as this trough moves into the region with minimum relative humidity values over 60 percent and the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of the storms may produce torrential downpours. With continued shower / storm activity, minimum RH will generally remain above 50% through Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 90 69 94 / 30 40 10 10 LCH 75 89 74 91 / 60 80 50 50 LFT 74 90 74 90 / 50 80 30 50 BPT 74 88 73 91 / 60 80 60 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...05