Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
286 FXUS64 KLCH 151724 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level trough will support shower and thunderstorm development again today, but overall coverage will be lower than earlier this week. Cloud cover will keep afternoon highs a few degrees below normal. - High pressure builds into the region Thursday through early next week which will keep precipitation chances negligible while lifting afternoon highs into the mid to upper 90s with afternoon heat indices between 102-110. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Surface analysis shows weak high pressure overhead while a stationary front is situated across the Ark-La-Tex. Aloft, an inverted shortwave trough is situated over Texas, with the forecast area on its eastern periphery. Area radar shows isolated convection offshore/near the coast, while more widespread activity is further west near Houston, associated with the upper level trough. The convection near Houston will continue to shift eastward through the afternoon, making its way into our SE TX counties through the next couple of hours. Some of these storms will likely hold together beyond the TX border however, coverage will likely begin to decrease with the loss of additional upper level support. Otherwise, widespread overcast cloud cover will hang around through the afternoon hours, holding temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees for afternoon highs. Tomorrow, the aforementioned upper trough continues to shift off to the west allowing ridging to build overhead in its wake. At the surface, high pressure becomes well established across the northern Gulf Coast through the end of the week/weekend. The combination of high pressure at the surface and aloft will effectively bring an end to the wet pattern and shifting us towards a period of hot and dry weather that will persist through the end of the forecast period. Thursday and Friday, highs range from the low to mid 90s, with max heat indices in the 100-106 degree range. Saturday and beyond, temps climb further, with highs in the mid to upper 90s (possibly approaching 100 across CENLA by Mon/Tues) and max heat indices in the 101-112 range. Remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outdoors for extended periods. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Light and variable winds along with broken to overcast high cloud cover will persist throughout the forecast period. An area of convection east of Houston will continue to spread east through this afternoon, possibly affecting BPT and LCH later today. Otherwise, no concerns expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Light southerly flow and low seas are expected to continue through the week as weak surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. Today will be the last day with scattered showers and thunderstorms as dry conditions begin to prevail tomorrow through the end of the forecast period as high pressure builds overhead. Winds and seas will be higher near thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Light southerly winds will prevail through the week and weekend keeping dewpoints in the 70s and minimum relative humidity in the 60 to 70 percent range. Ridging will build across the northern gulf Thursday through early next week dropping precipitation chances to near zero. No significant fire weather concerns are expected. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...17 AVIATION...17