561
FXUS64 KLCH 082319
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
619 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Typical summertime conditions will continue through Saturday
  with higher rain chances in lower Acadiana.

- Rain chances increase areawide Sunday through early next week as
  a disturbance moves across the northern Gulf Coast and moisture
  pools overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Friday morning surface analysis shows high pressure extending from
New England across the Appalachians and into the NW Gulf, providing
light and variable winds and mostly sunny skies across the CWA.
Aloft, ridging is over the desert SW/west TX, while a trough is
noted near the Carolinas. This trough is helping to induce a
weakness over the NE Gulf today before it retreats off towards the
Atlantic this afternoon/evening. Moisture has begun to pool overhead
through the last day or so, and a further increase in moisture is
expected through the weekend as the weakness in the NE Gulf begins
to slide westward towards the forecast area. At the same time,
surface high pressure will retreat to the NE a bit,
gradually loosening its hold of the CWA.

For today and tomorrow, expect warm and humid conditions with
isolated afternoon showers and storms. Most of this convection will
be south of I-10 into the coastal waters, with minimal rain chances
further inland. Rain chances will of course be best each afternoon,
during peak heating hours. By late Saturday into Sunday, the
disturbance aloft will be moving to our south and into south TX,
developing into a weak trough feature that will extend back towards
the Ark-La-Mis on Sunday. This will provide additional support for
convection across the forecast area throughout Sunday, with
scattered to widespread convection expected. Storms will likely
begin to initialize by mid/late morning, expanding in coverage
through peak heating hours.  With higher rain chances and more cloud
cover, temperatures are expected to be near or just slightly below
normal on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Moving into the work week, the upper level trough/weakness continues
to meander westward into TX. A trough moving out of the northern
Rockies into the Plains Sunday into Monday will likely absorb the
disturbance, with a weakness developing over the Plains through the
first half of the work week as a result. At the same time, guidance
shows a surge of moisture moving into the forecast area from the
east/southeast. The highest moisture looks to linger over SE
LA/MS/AL however, some of this could reach the Atchafalaya
Basin/lower Acadiana by Tues/Wed. With a nearby weakness aloft and
ample moisture overhead rain chances remain elevated throughout the
long term. Highest rain chances look to set up along and south of I-
10 and over Acadiana each day, but inland areas should see at least
isolated to scattered activity each day. For now, WPC has included
parts of lower Acadiana in a Day 5 Marginal Risk for Excessive
Rainfall, and I wouldn`t be surprised to see that expanded a bit in
the coming days. With higher rain chances and more cloud cover
temperatures are forecasted to warm into the lower 90s each day,
while dewpoints remain elevated making for a rather muggy week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Widely isolated showers and storms persist on radar this evening,
with convection slowly coming to an end. Otherwise we can look
forward to more of the same: light patchy fog in the overnight /
predawn hours and diurnal convection popping back up tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Light and variable winds and low seas will continue into tonight,
along with isolated convection. A light to moderate E to SE flow
will develop through the weekend as a weak disturbance aloft passes
across the northern Gulf. Coverage of showers and storms will
become more scattered to widespread Sunday into next week as
moisture increases and an upper level weakness lingers nearby.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Moisture has begin to return to the forecast area and will
continue to do so slowly through the weekend. MinRH values in the
50-70 percent range are expected through the weekend (highest near
the coast) Rain chances will be higher along and south of the
I-10 corridor each day as well, especially over the Acadiana
region. Moisture increases further Monday through early next week,
along with a continuous of elevated rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  95  72  93 /   0  10   0  40
LCH  76  93  75  92 /  10  40  30  70
LFT  75  92  75  92 /  10  30  20  80
BPT  76  92  75  92 /  10  30  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87