497
FXUS64 KLCH 050418
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1118 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of Severe Weather has been
  expanded southward to the I-10 corridor for Saturday afternoon
  and Saturday night. All modes of severe thunderstorms are
  possible.

- Windy conditions will continue this afternoon through Saturday
  until a cold front moves through late Saturday. A Wind Advisory
  is in effect through this evening, and again Saturday.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory will continue for the coastal parishes
  and counties through 7 PM Saturday.

- A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday night,
  with much cooler and drier air expected behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)

Wx map shows a large surface trough over the Midwest into Texas,
with a warm front advancing northward across the ArkLaTex.
Further east, a strong surface high ridging across the Gulf.
Between these two systems, a tight pressure gradient is producing
strong south to southeast winds around 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45
mph common across the area for the third day in a row now, easily
verifying the Wind Advisories. Very warm temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s, possibly touching 90 in a few locations before the
afternoon is over.

For tonight into early Saturday, winds will subside just a little,
but expected to remain 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts after
sunset through the evening and overnight hours. Winds will begin
picking up above 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph for the coastal
parishes/counties by 4 AM Saturday, and the I-10/U.S. 190 corridor
by 9 AM, where a Wind Advisory has been issued for Saturday as
well.

For Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, gusty southerly winds
will continue, along with increasing chances of thunderstorms
across Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana. SPC has expanded the
Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of Severe Weather southward to the
I-10 corridor for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. All modes
of severe thunderstorms are possible. For Saturday afternoon and
evening in particular, they expanded 10% tornado probabilities
farther south to the U.S. 190 corridor is for the possibility of
discrete supercells, ahead of the cold frontal development of the
squall line, which will likely bring the highest damaging winds
threat.

For the flooding rain threat, preliminary rainfall totals of 1.5
to 2.0 inches can be expected. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of
excessive rainfall continues over most of the area.

The continuous onshore flow has continued tidal levels of 1.0 to
1.5 feet MHHW during high tides today across the coastal parishes
and counties. Expect tides of 1.5 to 2.0 feet MHHW during the
times of high tide on Saturday, with the Coastal Flood Advisory
continuing from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

Once the cold front moves through the area overnight into Sunday
morning, precipitation expected to gradually end behind the front,
with much colder temperatures in the 50s and drier air to filter
across the area.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)

A deep layer mid to upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. will
keep a dry northwest flow aloft over the region, with no
precipitation expected. Rather cool conditions expected Monday
and Tuesday mornings with lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s as
cool high pressure settles over the area. A gradual warming trend
expected Wednesday and Thursday as the surface high moves east.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Only minor changes to the previous aviation forecast, mainly to
the timing of the arrival of showers and thunderstorms.

MVFR ceilings will continue through the rest of the TAF period.
Prevailing winds will remain from the south between 15 and 20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind gusts will decrease over
night before increasing again with the sunrise.

After sunrise convection will increase first in southeast Texas
then expand to the east. Periods of heavy rain will reduce
ceilings and visibility down to IFR or LIFR levels. Near
thunderstorms winds will be chaotic and stronger than the
background winds. After the convection begins showers and
thunderstorms will impact the region through the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong south to southeast winds will continue through Saturday
afternoon. A strong cold front will push through the coastal
waters Saturday evening through the overnight hours, accompanied
by a squall line with strong to severe thunderstorms possible.
Hazards possible include damaging winds, large hail, waterspouts,
frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Behind the cold front, moderate offshore winds will prevail early
Sunday and Sunday night, gradually diminishing on Monday. The
residual high swells and wave heights from the south meeting
these north winds will create very short wave periods, resulting
in steep seas after the frontal passage for most of the day
Sunday. Winds and seas will gradually subside Monday as the
surface high settles over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  84  56  64 /  10  90  90  20
LCH  74  81  57  66 /   0  70  90  10
LFT  75  84  62  69 /   0  40 100  30
BPT  75  82  54  64 /  10  70  80  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029>033-044-
     045-141>143.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ055-073-074-
     152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ073-
     074-241-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ201-261-262-
     515-516.

     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ615-
     616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ430-432-435-
     436-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14