Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
114 FXUS64 KLCH 191130 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 630 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure will meander over the nw Gulf through Monday before strengthening further into the middle of next week. Nil rain chances, and increasing temps / heat risk are expected. - Afternoon highs will increase by a degree or two each day, hitting the mid to upper 90s Mon - Thu. Heat indices will range from 105 to 112+F this week and Heat Advisories will likely be issued. - Notable rain chances not likely to return until next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Who needs a weather surface analysis map? It`s the time of year we can all take 2 steps outside and instantly picture the oppressive high pressure dome parked overhead. A slight haze from the Texas EML advecting overhead to reinforce the convection oven effect; dust acting to sop up some of this rich Louisiana humidity. The human experience is all too real during the north Gulf summer. For those truly visual-observers, surface maps, mesoanalysis, satellite derived PWAT plumes and RAOBs all paint the same imagery. While the upper high isn`t the all-consuming high pressure "dome" eclipsing the central US like we normally see, the weak upper high and subsequent surface high are enough to keep conditions hot and free of rainfall across the northwest Gulf. Anticyclonic flow driven by sfc high is also keeping a rich fetch of dry continental air spread overhead, further eating away low level moisture. These features will be the driving force for the forecast over the coming days. Flow will largely be dominated by this continental airmass as well, keeping moisture from surging back inland and thus allowing high temps to increase further from today through majority of this coming work week. Temps will top out in the mid to upper 90s each day, but the "upper 90s" metric will expand to more areas by Tuesday and Wednesday. These temps will very likely drive daytime heat indices into the 108 to 112F range through the midweek and heat advisories would be needed. Heat Risk is especially pertinent this week as these temps can and will impact most individuals negatively. This is the first time seeing these dangerous heat indices this Summer, so now is the time to prepare. There is an area of disturbed weather developing in the east Gulf which could see gradual development along the north Gulf in the coming days. High pressure and fetch of dry air should shield the northwest Gulf from any westward march of this system. Don`t count on it to break this heat wave, but it is another feature we are closely monitoring! Once again, no impacts to the forecast are are anticipated at this time. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Patchy, shallow ground fog has developed across the region this morning. This fog likely only extends a few feet off the ground in most locations. This fog may intermittently drop visibility observations to around 2 SM for the next hour or so with all fog expected to be dissipated by 13Z. High pressure both at the surface and aloft with maintain VFR conditions thereafter with scattered high clouds. Winds will remain light out of the west to southwest through the day becoming calm again overnight. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 High pressure will continue its stay over the northwest Gulf through the first part of the week. Low to breezy westerlies, dry conditions and low to occasionally elevated seas can be expected. Outside of the northwest Gulf, an area of broad low pressure is developing in the east Gulf. Gradual development is forecast as it moves to the north Gulf early this week. Not anticipating any impacts to northwest Gulf waters, however, winds and seas could see a localized increase from west to east in response to the tightening pressure gradient. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Increasingly hot and dry conditions are anticipated over the coming days as high pressure is in control of the forecast. West winds bringing in dry air from Texas is also acting to squash any rain chances and limit moisture return. Daytime minimum RH values will range from 30 to 50 percent through Tuesday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...11 AVIATION...66