618
FXUS64 KLCH 031808
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1208 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slightly drier airmass with overcast skies moves into the
   region this afternoon, but temps won`t lower much until the
   full cool airmass arrives tonight.

-  High temps ranging in the 70s return Monday through Friday
   with potential for nocturnal fog as onshore flow resumes.

-  Low end rain chances return late Wednesday or early Thursday
   with a disturbance developing in central Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

A cold front has pushed south, moving offshore of southern Louisiana
this afternoon. Winds out of the north will remain moderate into the
overnight hours. Lows will be noticeably cooler by early Sunday
morning, falling into the 40s. While the shortwave continues to
deepen downstream over the SE CONUS, winds will begin to ease
throughout the day, becoming southeasterly overnight into Monday.
Thus, this will be a short-lived period of near-seasonable
temperatures. With onshore flow returning Monday night, chances of
fog will increase across the forecast area leading into Tuesday
morning.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

On Tuesday, temperatures will rebound into the low 70s with
established southerly winds persisting through the remainder of the
long-range forecast. A subtropical ridge of high pressure that has
been consistent in the forecast is set to buckle north into the
Mississippi Valley by midweek. Ridging and south winds will help
further hedge temperatures into the mid-to-upper 70s. By this time,
a large surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will build
along the East Coast, increasing relative humidity locally.
Conditions will remain dry through Thursday morning in this pattern.

Zooming out to the synoptic pattern over the rest of the CONUS, a
shortwave trough is developing over the Pacific NW. This wave is
forecast to deepen southeast across the Heartland with broad but
expansive low pressure developing into the Central Plains.
Naturally, this evolution will force a tightening of the pressure
gradient Thursday and Friday, with isolated to scattered showers
developing through Friday morning. At this time, very little
rainfall accumulation is expected through the work week. It is worth
noting this shortwave has some element of uncertainty with respect
to how it will evolve during the end of the forecast period leading
into the following weekend. Newer guidance shows some expected
discontinuities among global models regarding the orientation and
acceleration of the system as it nears SETX and LA. For now, the
forecast calls for generally mild and mainly rain-free
conditionsaside from a few showers late in the upcoming work week.

 Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

A bank of MVFR OVC ceiling is pushing south across the forecast
area this afternoon toward the coast. Most TAF sites will prevail
MVFR through the evening hours. Winds will increase out of the
north with occasional gusts 15-20kt, but likely not prevailing.
Winds remain out of the north through Sunday morning while easing.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Enhanced low tide cycle will keep Low Water concerns and advisories
in effect through the weekend.

Cold front is now moving offshore this afternoon. Hazardous seas
will remain enhanced through the afternoon until north regime helps
swells abate. This period of elevated offshore winds will keep seas
elevated for southeast waters until sundown. Additionally such a
reverse in flow could lead to choppy conditions overnight into
Sunday while falling under advisory criteria.

Winds remain offshore until late Sunday when high pressure moves
east and onshore winds can resume. Potential for inland fog bleeding
into coastal waterways and lakes does increase early in the week
with said return of onshore flow.

30

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Low clouds are pushing south from central portions of LA toward the
coast. These will mix out into Sunday. A much cooler airmass will
arrive by early Sunday with north winds in place through Sunday
evening. High pressure remains in control of the forecast through
the midweek which will result in a warming and increasingly humid
forecast from Monday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  41  65  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  46  67  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  66  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  47  67  49  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ430-432.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ455-
     472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30