Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
793 FXUS64 KLCH 061954 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 254 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated rain chances can be expected over the weekend with a very moist air mass in place and an upper level disturbance. Showers and storms that develop will have the potential to produce high rain rates in a short period of time with nuisance flooding of urban poor drainage areas the main concern. - An upper level ridge will build in next week to help reduce shower activity to the more typical isolated to scattered during the afternoon. - Conditions will become even hotter and humid next week with afternoon heat index values reaching between 100 and 105 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Another day of tropical moisture lingering over the area, as it will tomorrow. Southerly flow will prevail and maintain the moisture rich airmass over the region. PWAT values remain above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Aloft, an area of low pressure over WTX will eventually move into the Central Plains over this weekend. Rain chances and a continued threat for localized minor flooding are expected as a result. The latest WPC ERO for today places much of this area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall with exception to all of the Golden Triangle and portions of the neighboring counties and parishes. That said, any location that experiences repeated (or even one heavy) showers or thunderstorms could see brief periods of excessive rainfall leading to flooding given the anomalously high moisture content. Similar to the past few days, storms should remain fairly progressive, limiting the duration of heavy rainfall at any one location. Heading into the work week, the weakness aloft will gradually be absorbed into the broader flow as an upper level ridge centered over the eastern Gulf expands westward across the Gulf Coast region. A more typical summertime pattern is then expected to develop, characterized by slightly above normal temps and mainly diurnally driven showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with exception to terminals in the vicinity of or directly impacted by showers and/or thunderstorms. Conditions may rapidly deteriorate due to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and brief reductions in ceilings and visibility. Activity will gradually diminish after sunset, with improving conditions expected through the remainder of the evening and overnight period. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 A broad area of high pressure over most of the southeastern US will ridge into the coastal waters through the middle part of next week. This will bring a persistent modest southerly flow along with low to moderate seas. A very moist air mass and a weakness aloft will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Shower activity is expected to decrease next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026 A moist air mass will remain over the region this weekend and will keep humid conditions in place with afternoon minimum relative humidity values over 60 percent. A weakness aloft will keep high chances for rain, mainly during the afternoon hours, that will bring wetting rains to a majority of the area to keep the fire danger in check. The main issue will be frequent cloud to ground lightning with some of the stronger storms. Rain chances will decrease on Monday into early next week with minimum afternoon relative humidity values ranging between 50 and 60 percent. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...87 AVIATION...87