489
FXUS64 KLCH 072022
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
322 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Skies will clear today as dry air filters in from the northwest.
  Expect slightly warmer temps each day with beautiful weather
  all week.

- Dry cool front passage at the end of the week. No appreciable
  precipitation chances expected today through the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Wx map illustrates broad high pressure overhead with increasing
subsidence aloft as reflected in the 12Z upper air sounding.
Satellite analysis indicates the heavier persisting mid-level clouds
and associated light precip have shifted east of the Mississippi.
However, cool low level temperatures and weak lift have allowed
stratocumulus to hang into this afternoon in broken patches. Thus,
afternoon high temperatures have been lowered to reflect the lack of
heating from the sun. As the gradient broadens tonight, winds will
lighten throughout the overnight into the early AM hour Tuesday. The
forecast is for radiational cooling to allow for the coolest
temperatures this late in this season as the climatological guidance
ahead shows a warming trend through the middle of April. With soils
still moist and increasing transpiration from Spring Vegitation,
radiational cooling overnight will allow for patchy fog to form
provided winds aloft do ease into dawn. That said, even light
winds are likely to keep the coverage and density limited.

Tuesday, northerly winds will be easing throughout the daylight
hours accompanying a gradual rebound in daytime highs in the low
70`s. Despite NW winds persisting aloft through the mid-week
surface, winds at the surface will be returning onshore by early
Wednesday. Further increase in daytime highs are expected with clear
skies.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Thursday, a shortwave trough will transit from the Midwest across
the Ohio Valley with little forcing extending south of the TN
Valley. Guidance shows confidence in keeping the Southern Plains to
the coast clear with a dry cool front laying down / diminishing
along the central Gulf Coast. This pattern will allow a brief wind
shift offshore into Friday. Hereafter, guidance is suggestive of
high pressure descending SE across the Plains into the SECONUS and
likely consolidate, bringing winds onshore again by late Saturday
while temperatures continue trend toward the upper 70`s and 80`s
this weekend.

Kowalski / 30


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Mid level clouds associated with the cold front to the east have
now shifted across the Mississippi river leaving BKN stratocumulus decks
around 3000ft with a few areas of MVFR CIGs. These will continue
to erode and lift becoming SCT and VFR during the remaining
afternoon hours. NW winds will continue with gusts 15-23kts before
easing toward the evening hours as high pressure broadens
overhead. Skies expected to clear tonight leaving all terminals
VFR by nightfall. Potential exist for some radiational fog with
unseasonably cool temperatures forecast overnight and clear
skies. Limiting factor for fog formation will be the persisting
NNW breezes, albeit much lighter through the dawn hours.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Southerlies swell have now abating with NW wind driven seas
becoming dominate sets across the nearshore waters. That said,
forecast still calls for enhanced seas through this evening in the
20-60NM waters until the NW regime gradually broadens during the
overnight hours. Still believe these conditions to fall below SCA
criteria by tonight. Hereafter onshore flow will return overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  45  72  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  45  72  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  45  74  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ470-472-
     475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30