Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
341 FXUS64 KLCH 142322 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure centered over the northern gulf coast will limit daily thunderstorm potential (20-30%) this week. - Some drier air will move into the region Thursday and Friday which will lower heat indices and make conditions feel more comfortable. - Precipitation chances increase Sunday into early next week as an area of low pressure moves across the northeastern gulf. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Upper level ridging aloft and broad high pressure at the surface will dominate the weather pattern through much of the week, the subsidence from which will keep precipitation chances below normal (20-30%) and and afternoon highs above. There will be an upward bump in PoPs Wednesday afternoon as a weak wave carrying some deeper moisture transits the region from east to west around the periphery of the ridging aloft. This disturbance will act as something of a "backdoor" cold front advecting in some drier air Thursday and Friday both at the surface and aloft. With dewpoints expected to fall back into the low to mid 60s away from the immediate coastline, the change in airmass will be noticeable in the form of a distinct drop in heat index even if afternoon highs continue to climb into the low to mid 90s. Not prepared to call it a first taste of autumn yet, but any break in the oppressive conditions will be most welcome. A somewhat unusual pattern is expected to set up by next weekend although guidance has been consistent in its development for the last couple of days. A deep upper level low is progged to cross the Florida peninsula into the eastern gulf before continuing into southeast Louisiana late Saturday into Sunday. This is a nontropical feature with no real surface reflection so tropical development isn`t expected, but it will increase rain chances markedly from Sunday into early next week which will help keep temperatures in check. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 VFR conditions and light winds expected through the evening at all sites with just some convective debris high clouds. Some weak convection is ongoing over the lower Atchafalaya Basin but this is expected to dissipate before it reaches LFT/ARA. Patchy light fog/mist may lower vis to MVFR at times late tonight. A few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon, but with low confidence and expected spotty coverage, have left out of TAFs for now. 64/Silas && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 High pressure over the northern gulf will keep conditions calm, with seas around 1 foot and winds between 5 and 10 knots today and Tuesday. By Wednesday, a disturbance will traverse the northern gulf from east to west with a strong fetch developing along the coast. Winds of 20-25 knots will develop increasing wave heights to up to 8 feet Wednesday night and Thursday. Mariners should expect Small Craft Advisories or similar headlines starting on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Precipitation chances will remain low (20-30%) through the week with the highest probabilities coming on Wednesday associated with a weak disturbance transiting the region. Otherwise, light southerly winds will prevail today and Tuesday before turning easterly through the second half of the week. Drier air will push into the region Thursday and Friday which will push afternoon RH values down into the 30-50% range with winds in the 5-10 MPH range. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...64