Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
103 FXUS64 KLCH 221119 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 619 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak frontal boundary will linger in the area or just offshore into next week. The boundary combined with a very moist airmass will create an elevated chance for rain today and Saturday, especially near the coast. - A building high pressure system over the Mountain West is expected to bring a dry northwest flow into the forecast area over the weekend with lower rain chances and less humid conditions Sunday into next week. - Another weak cold front may enter the area by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Patchy light rain and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the region early this morning. While a weak frontal boundary acts as a focus and interacts with a soupy airmass, convection will continue. Hi-res guidance indicates thunderstorms may continue in the coastal waters and along the coast tonight into mid morning. Diurnal heating today will allow convection to spread back inland. Storm motion is expected to be slow once again, and this along with storms capable of producing torrential downpours will produce a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. A weak frontal boundary is analyzed inland across the northern gulf coast. This weak front is expected to slowly ooze south to the coast today. An upper ridge is centered over the SW states which is producing a light northerly flow locally which is driving the weak front south. The north flow will slowly push in a drier airmass this weekend. While today scattered to numerous storms are anticipated area wide, Saturday convection will be mainly concentrated along and south of I-10. Convection will decrease farther on Sunday as PWATs fall to around 1". && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 An upper trough will dig into the eastern CONUS next week and keep a general northerly flow in place. Pops will be fairly low early next week and temperatures will be near climo normals as a slightly drier airmass lingers in the region. By mid week a weak cold front may drift into the area. While temperatures are forecast to remain near climo normals, or perhaps a degree or two below, the main effect may be lower dewpoints and slightly lower morning lows for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Will be starting at with VFR conditions at all terminals. With daytime heating, a lingering frontal boundary, and abundant Gulf moisture, shower activity is expected to develop later this morning and especially this afternoon. The better chance to see thunderstorms will be over lower southeast Texas and southern Louisiana so will have PROB groups after 22/20z to account for this. Away from the convection, VFR with light winds will prevail, however, IFR conditions with some gusty and erratic winds will occur if a thunderstorm moves over a terminal. Thunderstorm activity is expected to decrease after 23/02z. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A trough will stall along the coast today. This trough will help bring an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms during any time of day through Friday. More typical scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly late night and early morning, and again in the afternoon will be in the forecast over the weekend as the weak front remains offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A weak frontal boundary will stall near the coast today. Scattered to numerous storms are expected by afternoon. A slightly drier airmass will filter in during the weekend with lessening rain chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 91 70 93 69 / 50 10 10 0 LCH 89 74 92 73 / 80 50 60 20 LFT 89 74 91 73 / 80 30 50 20 BPT 89 74 91 73 / 80 60 60 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...07