Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
522 FXUS64 KLCH 052330 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 630 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level disturbance will combine with tropical moisture to produce widespread (70-90% chance) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with storms diminishing around sunset. - Fewer storms are expected Sunday afternoon as upper level ridging builds across the northwestern gulf coast. - Scattered daily afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day from Labor day through the week within a very tropical airmass. Temperatures will remain near climatological normals. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 The radar is gradually becoming infected with another round of meteorological measles this afternoon as the convective temp is reached and initiation gets underway. Aiding in this development is an upper level wave extending across much of the northern gulf coast. KLCH 00Z RAOB from yesterday evening observed a PWAT of 2.1 with guidance in good agreement on this deep tropical airmass sticking around. As such, any of this afternoons storms will be capable of producing high rainfall rates leading to isolated areas of nuisance street flooding. Areas that saw significant rainfall from tropical storm Edouard including parts of Tyler, Hardin and Jefferson counties, will be particularly susceptible to heavy rain this afternoon with a marked difference noted in flash flood guidance values. The upper level support is progged to wash out by this evening, which, combined with the loss of daytime heating, will spell the demise of all, but the most tenacious storms. Precipitation chances will be much lower (20-30%) Sunday as persistent upper level ridging which has been sitting just north of the region since last week edges south offering some suppression. The more extensive sunshine will push afternoon highs back into the low to mid 90s. The region will remain on the southern periphery of the upper ridge from Labor day through the upcoming week with small perturbations intermittently allowing it to strengthen and weaken across the area. The tropical airmass will remain entrenched allowing for daily scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon with temperatures near climatological norms. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to move westward across lower CenLA at this hour. Storms today have been the result of a slug of tropical moisture as well as a weak wave moving overhead. This cluster should be the last of this convective activity as sundown will cut off majority of the energy available. Another wave of weak but active convection may try to develop along the Atchafalaya in the hours just after sunrise, the final hurrah of this wave, which could see impacts to the Lower Acadiana terminals. Due to the possibility, prob30 groups were included at LFT and ARA for -TSRA through 2Z. Otherwise, conditions will move towards calm and muggy with areas of patchy radiation fog possible across the region tonight. High pressure will ridge overhead in the overnight hours owing to the calm conditions thru sunrise and then to a quieter day on Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable away from convective activity in response to the upper ridge. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Light and variable winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend, becoming predominantly SE to S by next week. Scattered convection is expected each day with more isolated nocturnal thunderstorms developing overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and have the potential to produce high rainfall rates. Storms will diminish around sunset. Fewer storms expected Sunday afternoon although there will be some development. Daily afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the upcoming week. Away from storms, light southerly winds will prevail. Rain from tropical storm Edouard has provided significant drought relief over parts of southeast Texas but much of western and central Louisiana remain in ongoing drought. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...11