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FXUS64 KLCH 300543
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot conditions will persist today underneath a high
  pressure ridge.

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of the region today
  where maximum Heat Indices will range 105F to 111F.

- Starting this afternoon through the end of the week, increasing
  rain chances are expected as a weak trough arrives and lingers
  within an airmass of deep tropical moisture over the northern
  Gulf thus prompting a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A coastal trough currently rests over south central Alabama this
morning while gradually migrating east over the lower Mississippi
Valley. Meanwhile, broad ridging extends across the vast majority
of the Southern Plains and was still evident on last nights 00Z
upper air sounding. Satellite water vapor analysis shows
increasing low to mid level moisture advecting westward.
Concurrently, a heat advisory is in effect for portions of the
Acadiana area where heat indices may reach toward 111F during the
early afternoon hours.

That said, guidance has trended more favorably toward afternoon
shower / thunderstorms developing along the Mississippi River and
building SW across the forecast area through the evening hours. With
very warm surface temperatures and dewpoints, it is possible for
these cells to cluster into an MCS like feature into the early
evening hours before precipitation shifts offshore. While severe
risks remain low, potential for torrential downpours will yield a
Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall- meaning flash flooding is
possible.

Weak mid-upper level troughing extending across the NW Gulf will
allow for this baroclinic atmosphere to stick around through
Thursday and Friday. Thus Marginal Risks for excessive rainfall that
could lead to flash flooding remain through the work week. Outside
of, or in lieu of storm activity, high temperatures stand decent
chances to climb toward the mid-upper 90`s over interior location
while lower 90`s keep along the immediate coast.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

By Saturday, the subtropical jet shows signs sinking latitude across
the central CONUS with significant subsidence developing over the
Upper Mississippi Valley / Midwest. This dry continental air will
help drive a frontal boundary south of the ARKLATEX region. While
we`re not expected a notable cool down, a slight 5 reprieve from
the mid- upper 90`s is likely Saturday. There remains an element
of uncertainty how much moisture convergence will take place.
Nevertheless, opportunities for pockets of heavy rainfall are on
the table through the weekend. Hereafter, guidance is suggestive
of the boundary stalling or potentially diminishing along the
coast. This would lead to continued rain chances leading into the
start of the following work week for portions of the forecast
area.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Conditions forecast to remain VFR through the remainder of the
nocturnal hours. There is the potential, however, for VCTS across
ARA / LFT possible with deepening coastal trough to the east.
Increased RA / TSRA expected trending through the afternoon hours
Wednesday is expected before easing offshore after dusk.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Hot and dry conditions to continue through early Wednesday under
high pressure influence. High begins breaking down from east to
west on Wednesday afternoon allowing for moisture and rain chances
to return from the east. Elevated daytime rain chances will
continue thereafter.

Seas should remain relatively low through the period, however with
short wave periods, waters out to the south of central Louisiana
may become rather choppy later in the week.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Very hot conditions will persist today with increasing rain
chances during the afternoon as high pressure ridge breaks down.
Hereafter through the end of the week, daily opportunities for
appreciable showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  97  75 /  60  20  40  10
LCH  96  77  95  78 /  60  60  50  10
LFT  95  77  93  78 /  70  30  70  10
BPT  96  77  95  77 /  30  50  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ028-029-031>033-143.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30