030
FXUS64 KLCH 172338
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
638 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Flash Flood Watch has been extended and now includes most of
  southwest Louisiana Thursday through Saturday.

- Heavy rainfall from a tropical disturbance will have the
  potential to produce rainfall totals of 1-6 inches Thursday
  through Saturday with amounts of up to 12 inches possible in a
  few locations across south central Louisiana.

- Heat returns to the region in the middle of next week with highs
  in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The elongated center of a tropical disturbance is roughly
stretched from the mouth of the Mississippi River into southern
Mississippi and is moving west. The chances for farther tropical
development is rapidly decreasing as the system moves into
Louisiana. However, the threat for heavy rain will remain.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 6 inches remain POSSIBLE with isolated
locations receiving near one foot. Radar estimates between Pierre
Part in Ascension Parish and Stephensville in Lower Saint Martin
Parish is already over 6 inches with more to come.

The high PWAT associated with the disturbance will move west and
northwest tonight into Friday then lift north Saturday. Forecast
PWAT values of around 2.5" will be around the max recorded for
tonight into Friday. Very efficient rainfall producing storms can
be anticipated, as typical for this type of tropical airmass.
Urban flooding is almost a given if any convection lingers.
Isolated locations may receive 6 to 12 inches, however areal
averages this afternoon through Saturday will be generally between
2 to 6 inches. The higher amounts will generally remain in
Acadiana.

Chances for rain will decrease Saturday evening as the moisture
associated with the disturbance lifts north and daytime heating is
lost.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Weak ridging will build back in by Sunday and linger through mid
week. This will decrease rain chances and increase temperatures.
Apparent temperatures across areas away from the coast will climb
into the 103-108 range with actual temps in the mid to upper 90s
Monday to Wednesday. This may prompt the need for heat advisories
over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to impact the area
with low CIGs and VIS. Near thunderstorms conditions are IFR to
LIFR with gusty winds up to 30 knots. Away from thunderstorms
persistent rainfall and low ceilings are leading to long term
MVFR to marginal VFR conditions. The active weather will continue
for most of the night at AEX, LCH, and BPT while LFT and ARA will
be on the dry side of the system in the next several hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The tropical disturbance is not expected to produce much in the
way of wind, and sustained winds are expected to stay below the
20-knot threshold for a Small Craft Advisory. Exercise caution
headlines may be needed, but even that looks marginal right now.
Scattered thunderstorms and reduced visibility due to heavy
rainfall will be the main threats to mariners through the weekend.
Near thunderstorms winds and waves will be locally higher.
Background wave heights will be between 2 and 4 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Soaking rain is expected area-wide Thursday through Saturday, with
widespread 2 to 6 inches of rainfall. Minimum RH values will
remain in the 40 to 60% range with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  88  73  90 /  40  80  30  60
LCH  75  86  76  90 /  70  80  40  60
LFT  75  85  75  89 /  70  90  30  70
BPT  73  86  75  90 /  70  80  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ030>033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14