783
FXUS64 KLCH 181751
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1251 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Onshore flow will slowly filter Gulf moisture inland through
  this evening. There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe
  weather as scattered storms move through the area today.


- A frontal boundary will shift winds offshore overnight into
  tomorrow leading to mild highs followed by cool lows Sunday
  night.


- Mild and mainly dry weather can be expected throughout the work
  week ahead as a high pressure is forecast to build and remain in
  just east of the region.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

As of 18Z (1 PM CT), widely isolated showers and storms continue
to stream northward into the region, with most of the activity
concentrated in areas along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Convection is expected to ramp up a bit before we see a lull in
activity later in the evening.

There is a shortwave over the Midwest with an attached cold front
stretched south through there into parts of Central TX. A line of
showers and storms exists ahead of that, which is expected to move
into the CWA this evening. Most model guidance depicts the line
moving into our interior SETX zones by 03Z, then clearing Lower
Acadiana sometime after 09Z. Some of these storms will have the
potential of being severe, hence the Marginal (1/5) to Slight
(2/5) Risk for severe storms outlined by SPC. The primary threat
remains damaging wind gusts, with a non-zero chance for tornadoes.
There is also a Marginal (1/4) Risk for excessive rainfall.

Once the front passes, we will see cooler and drier air rush in. A
high pressure will descend into the region; however, before it
makes it atop the CWA, breezy northerly winds can be expected.
MaxTs through the short term will be a few degrees above climo
norms; however, we will have one day of cooler than average
overnight temps Sunday night into early Monday morning as a result
of CAA and radiational cooling. The high pressure will shift off
to the east on Monday, with warmer conditions and southerly flow
returning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

By the early to midweek timeframe, southerly flow will be
established, with Gulf moisture streaming into the region. We can
expect PWATs to be in or around the 75th percentile. All of this
is ahead of another frontal boundary that will quickly sweep
through. Despite that, rain chances remain minimal, with only
isolated to lowend scattered convection likely. A high pressure
will move into the region midweek then off to the east a bit going
into the end of the work week. We could see isolated PoPs return;
however, that will be highly dependent on the positioning of the
surface high and how much moisture we can manage to get into the
region near the end of the week or early weekend.

With the exception of post fropa temps at the very beginning of
the long term that are expected to be nearly 10 degrees above
climo norms, both min and max Ts are expected to only hover at or
within 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Showers and isolated storms are continuing to stream north into
the area along with a line of storms across Central TX that is
expected to reach the area later this evening. Some of these
storms could be severe, with strong, damaging wind gusts and heavy
rain leading to reduced VIS. Conditions will improve post frontal
passage, with winds becoming northwesterly to northerly. Tomorrow
morning through afternoon, elevated and gusty NNW winds can be
expected as the high pressure system moves closer to the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025


Onshore winds are forecast to pickup this morning with gusts
around 15-18 kts by the afternoon. Now through the weekend, waves
will build 2 - 4 ft. Rain chances will continue until the passage
of a cold front early Sunday. Brief, but enhanced, offshore flow
will take place Sunday morning to evening, hence the issuance of a
SCY and SCS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Onshore flow and moisture advection will keep RH above 60% through
this afternoon. Isolated convection is ongoing, with a lull in
activity expected before a line moves through ahead of the front
this evening into early tomorrow morning. Winds are forecast to
shift out of the north early Sunday morning and remain breezy
through the evening. Onshore flow will gradually reestablish
Monday. Currently, multiple parishes have burn bans in place
across Acadiana along with counties in southeast Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  63  77  46 /  70  80   0   0
LCH  86  69  83  54 /  70  40   0   0
LFT  85  69  82  51 /  70  60  10   0
BPT  87  69  84  56 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ450-452-
     470-472.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87