987
FXUS64 KLCH 121753
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Enough of a weakness still exists overhead to allow for
 scattered afternoon thunderstorms with little day to day change
 in temperatures.

-The upper ridge will strengthen early next week. This should
 decrease rain chances while increasing the heat. Potential for
 heat advisory criteria as early as Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Widely isolated convection has developed this afternoon,
supported by a persistent upper level weakness over the region.
The upper trough has not lifted northward as quickly as previously
forecast, with its base remaining over E TX and a general
weakness aloft extending across much of the forecast area.
Additionally, the upper ridge positioned off the FL Gulf Coast is
contributing to enhanced moisture transport. This combination has
provided a favorable environment for diurnally driven convection,
as currently evident on radar.

On Sunday, the aforementioned ridge is expected to expand westward
over the Gulf. However, the lingering weakness should continue to
support convection, similar to today. That said, the NBM appears
to carry a wet bias through the period, likely underrepresenting
the influence of the building heights. Thus, PoPs were trimmed
slightly for both Sunday and Monday, particularly across areas
where subsidence may begin to dominate.

Temperatures will remain near climatological normals through the
short term. However, elevated dewpoints will result in heat
indices approaching or exceeding the 100 mark. Regardless of
official heat hazard criteria being met, heat safety precautions
should be exercised during prolonged outdoor exposure.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025


The upper ridge is expected to further strengthen and exert
greater control over the region by early to midweek, leading to a
drier and warmer pattern. The NBM`s wet bias appears to diminish
during this period, with only isolated convection expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday under increasing subsidence.

Forecast confidence decreases toward the latter half of the week
due to increasing model divergence regarding the positioning of
the upper ridge and the potential development of a weak low in the
north central Gulf. Should this low materialize and drift
westward, it could result in a notable uptick in PoPs,
particularly across S CenLA on Thursday, with precipitation
spreading across the broader forecast area by Friday.

Temperatures during the early to midweek period will likely climb
as cloud coverage diminishes and subsidence increases. Heat
indices could potentially reach the 105 to 110F due to continued
high dewpoints. If rain chances increase as currently suggested
late in the week, daytime highs may trend downward accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Isolated convection has developed across the western half of the
area this afternoon, driven by an upper level weakness. Brief
gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing VIS, and frequent lightning
are possible near storms. Convection should diminish this evening,
with VFR conditions expected overnight. Patchy fog may develop in
typical low lying areas but is not expected to significantly
impact aviation. Any fog that does form will quickly dissipate
after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

High pressure extending across the northern Gulf will maintain
light onshore winds and low seas through late next week. Daily
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the coastal
waters through Monday with lower rain chances Tuesday through the
end of the week as upper level ridging builds across the northern
gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Light southerly winds will maintain dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s through next week. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values
are expected to range from 50 - 70%. Daily thunderstorms will
develop from late morning through early evening through Monday.
An upper level ridge building into the region will lower daily
rain chances Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  72  93  73 /  40  20  60   0
LCH  91  77  90  76 /  60  20  60  10
LFT  91  75  90  75 /  50  10  60  10
BPT  90  76  91  76 /  70  20  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87