346
FXUS64 KLCH 081734
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level high and dry air aloft will prevail across the
  region for the bulk of the forecast period, keeping any
  significant shower activity form developing.

- A surface cold front will move across early tomorrow bringing a
  drier air mass into the region that will linger into the
  weekend. The result will be lower humidity and cooler night time
  lows.

- With the potential for breezy northeast winds, dry antecedent
  conditions, and low afternoon relative humidity, there will be
  an elevated risk for grass and marsh fires Thurs through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A warm but pleasant start to this Wednesday is ongoing across SE TX
and SW LA, with temperatures in the 80s amid sunny skies. Warm and
sunny conditions will prevail through this afternoon, with highs
expected to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Aloft, broad flat
ridging extends across Mexico to FL with a dry mainly westerly flow
overhead. At the surface, a cold front is draped from New England to
the Ark-La-Tex, with a light NErly flow ongoing across the CWA ahead
of this front. This boundary will meander across the Ark-La-Tex this
afternoon into tonight, before eventually making its way through the
CWA to the Gulf Coast by tomorrow morning. Main indication of
frontal passage will be strengthening NE winds at the surface, as
ridging aloft will hinder any convection from developing. Behind the
front, a drier airmass at the surface will gradually filter into the
region tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night, with dewpoints
falling from the mid/upper 60s at sunrise tomorrow to the mid/upper
50s by sunrise Fri. The combination of breezy winds and dry air,
along with the lack of rain we`ve been seeing across the area, will
bring an elevated fire risk tomorrow.

This drier airmass will linger overhead Fri into the weekend as
surface high pressure ridges across the area behind the front
keeping a modest NErly flow in place. At the same time, upper level
ridging overhead shifts westerly and builds across the Plains,
resulting in a dry NW/N flow overhead aloft. As a result, seasonal
temps are on tap for Friday with highs warming into the mid to upper
80s and overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Moving into the weekend, upper level ridging over the Plains early
Sat will gradually weaken as we head into Sun as it becomes
sandwiched between two strengthening troughs. At the surface, the
midweek cold front races south across the Gulf as high pressure
ridges down from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. This will keep a
dry and seasonal pattern in place through the weekend, with highs
again warming into the mid/upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s/mid
60s. Overall, it`s looking like a great weekend for any outdoor
activities!

Moisture begins to slowly return by Sun PM into Mon as surface high
pressure shifts east and winds turn SE across the region. Aloft,
after briefly weakening, ridging begins to strengthen once again
amplifying over the center of the country through the early work
week. So, while moisture returns in the lower levels ridging aloft
will keep precip in check, with more dry weather on the way.
Moisture return will allow dewpoints to tick up and temperatures to
return to above average, with highs reaching into the upper 80s/low
90s once again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Scattered mid-level cloud deck along with a bit of high level
cirrus is expected to persist overhead into tonight along with
light mainly NE winds. Early tomorrow, a cold front will move
through the region, reinforcing and strengthening ongoing NErly
flow and clearing out any lingering cloud cover through the
daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Light to modest winds from the northeast continue today as weak
surface high pressure ridging across the Gulf coast states will
build into the coastal waters. Offshore winds along with seas will
increase by early tomorrow as a cold front moves into the coastal
waters. A SCA has been issued beginning early tomorrow morning
through Thurs midday, and may need to be extended further in the
coming forecast cycle. Offshore winds will remain at least somewhat
elevated through Friday before decreasing over the weekend as
surface high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Light to moderate mainly NE winds will prevail through this
afternoon, with minimum afternoon RH values in the 50 to 60
percent range. A cold front will move across early tomorrow that
will allow NE winds to strengthen slightly, bringing a shot of drier
air into the region. Minimum relative humidity values will
generally range from around 40 to 50 percent tomorrow through the
weekend, with Fri likely being the driest of this period. An
upper level high and dry air aloft will help keep rain chances
very low with no significant rainfall amounts. With the dry
conditions and increasing northeast winds, an elevated fire danger
will be possible during the afternoon over the coming days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  86  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  70  88  63  85 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  70  88  63  85 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  70  90  63  87 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17