Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
196 FXUS64 KLCH 051727 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level disturbance will combine with tropical moisture to produce widespread (70-90% chance) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with storms diminishing around sunset. - Fewer storms are expected Sunday afternoon as upper level ridging builds across the northwestern gulf coast. - Scattered daily afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day from Labor day through the week within a very tropical airmass. Temperatures will remain near climatological normals. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 The radar is gradually becoming infected with another round of meteorological measles this afternoon as the convective temp is reached and initiation gets underway. Aiding in this development is an upper level wave extending across much of the northern gulf coast. KLCH 00Z RAOB from yesterday evening observed a PWAT of 2.1 with guidance in good agreement on this deep tropical airmass sticking around. As such, any of this afternoons storms will be capable of producing high rainfall rates leading to isolated areas of nuisance street flooding. Areas that saw significant rainfall from tropical storm Edouard including parts of Tyler, Hardin and Jefferson counties, will be particularly susceptible to heavy rain this afternoon with a marked difference noted in flash flood guidance values. The upper level support is progged to wash out by this evening, which, combined with the loss of daytime heating, will spell the demise of all, but the most tenacious storms. Precipitation chances will be much lower (20-30%) Sunday as persistent upper level ridging which has been sitting just north of the region since last week edges south offering some suppression. The more extensive sunshine will push afternoon highs back into the low to mid 90s. The region will remain on the southern periphery of the upper ridge from Labor day through the upcoming week with small perturbations intermittently allowing it to strengthen and weaken across the area. The tropical airmass will remain entrenched allowing for daily scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon with temperatures near climatological norms. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon in response to plentiful atmospheric moisture and a weak upper level disturbance aloft. These storms will intermittently reduce visibilities at the terminals and produce outflow boundaries that may cause brief, but rapid changes in wind direction and speed. Storms will begin to diminish after 00Z and largely be over by 02Z. Away from storms, VFR conditions will prevail along with light, variable winds. Jones && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Light and variable winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend, becoming predominantly SE to S by next week. Scattered convection is expected each day with more isolated nocturnal thunderstorms developing overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and have the potential to produce high rainfall rates. Storms will diminish around sunset. Fewer storms expected Sunday afternoon although there will be some develoment. Daily afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the upcoming week. Away from storms, light southerly winds will prevail. Rain from tropical storm Edouard has provided significant drought relief over parts of southeast Texas but much of western and central Louisiana remain in ongoing drought. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...66 AVIATION...66