Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
071 FXUS64 KLCH 192329 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak upper level ridge aloft and northerly flow will bring about hot and humid conditions through Wednesday with late in the afternoon thunderstorms which may bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - A trough will move into the forecast area on Thursday and linger into Friday bringing a decent chance for thunderstorms. With the expected high moisture content of the atmosphere heavy rainfall will be possible. - A building high pressure system over the Mountain West is expected to bring a dry northwest flow into the forecast area over the weekend with lower rain chances and less humid conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A broad regime of fairly slack high pressure across the area will continue to breakdown over the next day while coastal troughing gradually begins to deepen over the northern Gulf Coast. In the meanwhile, warm surface temperatures are expected Wednesday with heat indices approaching 103-107F upon factoring the humidity under light winds. Typical summertime isolated to scattered chances of storms will accompany this pattern transition. By Thursday morning more appreciable and widespread PoPs enter the forecast area as a shortwave trough deepens south along the central Mississippi Valley. While the parent trough embedded in the Jet straddled across Canada shifts east through the remainder of the week, a portion of this trough remains unphased and continues to sink southward. This pattern will generate a region of dry, continental air to abut moist marine air along the Gulf Coast. Together, with signs of prefrontal troughing in the low - mid levels, periods of heavy rainfall may occur so the entire forecast area carries a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Naturally, daytime highs will trend a little cooler- to the upper 80`s and low 90`s. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Temperatures will have a slow steady climb back to mid to upper 90`s trough the remainder of the outlook. Areas of scattered to widespread precipitation are still likely Friday across SETX and south Central LA. Gradually through the evening, the frontal boundary will push offshore and stall while drier air mixes in from the north. With the deteriorating frontal boundary along the coast remaining into the weekend noteworthy PoPs do carry into the weekend as well. However, guidance has been consistent on favoring best chances toward the coast as opposed to interior locations which should have more subsidence influence. Another frontal boundary is set to arrive following a more amplified shortwave passing east over the TN Valley given a more unsettled, but warm pattern into the following week. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A cluster of thunderstorms along the Atchafalaya Basin look to move westward and affect the KLFT/KARA terminals before dissipating. Could be some brief gusty winds over 30 knots and IFR conditions between 20/00z and 20/02z. At this point other terminals should have fair conditions that will linger into the overnight. On Wednesday, once again mainly VFR conditions. Will need to watch for late in the day thunderstorm development, mainly after 20/21z. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A weak pressure pattern will be found over the northwest Gulf for the next few days. This will bring about light and variable winds along with low seas. A trough will move toward the coast from the north on Thursday increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during any time of day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A hot and humid air mass will continue over the region through Wednesday. This will bring about afternoon heat index values around 105 degrees and minimum relative humidity values over 50 percent. There will also be a chance for late afternoon thunderstorms. Rain chances will increase on Thursday and Friday as a trough moves into the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 73 96 73 92 / 10 40 40 70 LCH 77 95 75 92 / 10 50 50 80 LFT 76 96 75 92 / 10 40 30 80 BPT 76 95 74 92 / 10 50 50 80 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07