538
FXUS64 KLCH 092107
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
307 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

A weakening cold front has drifted to along Highway 165 southward
to Cameron this afternoon. Deep moisture streaming in from TS
Rafael, the stalling front, and an incoming upper trough has lead
to heavy rain across SE TX and western/central LA. The front will
continue to come to a halt this evening and become diffuse into
Sunday. Heavy rain will remain possible while the boundary is in
the area, however upper support will gradually exit. Rain chances
will still linger through Sunday albeit less than today. The risk
of heavy rain will decrease Sunday.

A slightly cooler and drier air mass will filter in Sunday and
Monday, however temperatures will remain above climo norms.

Rafael will continue to sheared apart well south of the region
with only rough seas and above normal tides anticipated for the
area Sunday, outside of deeper moisture streaming in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

In the long term, Rafael is expected to transition into a post
tropical remnant low with no direct impacts anticipated in our local
area. Surface high pressure is forecasted to be centered over the
Northern Plains, extending eastward toward the Great Lakes Region at
the beginning of the period. This pattern will support light ridging
across our area, accompanied by northeasterly winds and an influx of
drier air, though temperatures will not cool significantly.

MaxTs and MinTs are projected to remain approximately 715 degrees
above climatological normals for this time of year, providing a
slight relief from recent (more drastic) elevated temperatures.
Model guidance currently exhibits some variability regarding the
approaching frontal system, though a general consensus suggests
passage through the area between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. A subsequent decrease in temperatures and drier conditions
is anticipated. Moisture availability appears limited with this
frontal passage, so PoPs are expected to remain below 25 percent at
that time, then decrease below 15 percent for the rest of the period
post frontal passage.

Stigger/87


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Low ceilings and vis can be expected through the period as a cold
front slows and stalls. Pockets of heavy rain and IFR ceilings are
forecast through tonight. Conditions will gradually improve at
the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tropical Storm Rafael across the Central Gulf of Mexico will
continue to weaken as it moves slowly westward tonight, expected
to turn south-southwest Sunday with continued weakening through
early next week. High seas and swells will continue across the
coastal waters tonight, with gradually diminishing seas by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  78  62  78 / 100  40  20  10
LCH  71  81  67  81 /  70  30  10   0
LFT  73  83  68  82 /  80  60  30  10
BPT  71  84  66  84 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-
     241>243.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for LAZ073-074-252.

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ260-262-515-516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for TXZ615.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Sunday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05