781
FXUS64 KLCH 242330
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
530 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure near FL, while low
pressure and a cold front are in the Plains. Overhead, the pressure
gradient has tightened a bit between these two features, resulting
in breezy southerly winds with frequent gusts across the forecast
area. Otherwise, pleasant but warm conditions are ongoing, with
temps currently ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s beneath
scattered cirrus. Main item of note this afternoon, dewpoints are
currently sitting in the upper 50s to low 60s, roughly 20 degrees
higher than this time yesterday thanks to moisture return brought
on by onshore flow. Tonight, climbing dewpoints will result in
well above average temps with lows only falling into the low to
mid 60s.

Moving into the work week, a mid latitude shortwave will push the
cold front in the Plains south towards the forecast area tomorrow,
with the boundary expected to move through the CWA overnight. Prior
to the front, another warm and breezy day is on tap tomorrow, with
rain chances increasing post-sunset as the boundary draws closer.
Guidance is fairly consistent with keeping better rain chances off
to our NE with this front, with only isolated shower activity
expected overhead. Showers move south and east of the CWA by sunrise
Tuesday, as the boundary moves offshore and a small shot of drier
and cooler air filters south into the region in its wake. Highs
on Tuesday are expected to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s,
amid sunny skies and light northerly winds. Overnight into
Wednesday, winds turn back to an onshore flow once again.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

After a seasonal day on Tuesday, Wednesday brings a return of
warm and humid conditions. Redeveloped onshore flow overnight
Tuesday will strengthen throughout Wednesday as the pressure
gradient overhead tightens once again, allowing moisture return
to ramp up rather quickly. As a result, temps will warm into the
upper 70s to low 80s Wed afternoon amid increasingly cloudy skies.

Heading into Thanksgiving Day, a cold front will sweep through the
area early in the day, effectively bringing an end to Wednesday`s
brief warming trend. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will
likely accompany this frontal passage Thursday morning, with rain
chances tapering off by the afternoon hours. Daytime highs may
occur a bit earlier in the day on Thursday than is typical, as
post-frontal CAA brings much cooler and drier air into the region
through the afternoon and evening hours.

Friday into the weekend, post frontal high pressure settles
overhead bringing about a period of much colder and drier
conditions. Temps are only expected to top out in the mid 50s to
low 60s Friday afternoon, while overnight lows fall into the mid
30s to mid 40s. The weekend looks to bring a secondary,
reinforcing cold front that may move through early Sunday, that
will only extend the cool, below average temps for a bit longer.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Southerly flow will continue tonight with easing sfc winds through
daybreak allowing VFR conditions to remain. Moisture advection
from the Gulf leading to FEW to BKN skies, potentially becoming
OVC in some terminals, however, lowest cloud decks appear to
remain above 3500ft. South winds will pick up in the late morning
with gusts toward 15-20kts into the mid afternoon.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Onshore flow will continue overnight through tomorrow, with
occasional gusts likely especially further offshore. A cold front
late Monday into Tuesday will produce a brief wind shift, but
southerly winds will re-develop and strengthen by Wednesday ahead
of another front that will arrive Thursday. Dry conditions are
expected through Monday, with small rain chances returning by
early Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  81  52  67 /   0   0  20   0
LCH  65  81  57  72 /   0   0  10   0
LFT  62  81  60  71 /   0   0  40   0
BPT  65  84  56  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30