895
FXUS64 KLCH 101806
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
106 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move
  west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week
  helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near
  the seabreeze boundary.

- A surge of deeper more tropical like moisture will move around
  the wave and into eastern portions of forecast area proving a
  risk of excessive rainfall on Tuesday into Wednesday.

- The subtropical ridge from the east will build in at the end of
  the week to provide typical summertime weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Conditions are relatively quiet over the forecast area at the
moment. There was a healthy amount of nocturnal convection over
the Gulf this early morning, with some of the convective blow off
and stratiform rain moving inland, especially over lower Acadiana,
and this has somewhat delayed daytime heating and kept the
instability in check. Also with east-northeast flow seen on the
VAD at KLCH up to 10k feet, the seabreeze has been kept down at
the coast.

You can see mainly a cyclonic motion of clouds and showers over
the forecast area from the inverted trough/easterly wave located
off the Louisiana coast. GOES data shows PWAT increasing to near 2
inches near the coast and over eastern portions of the forecast
area. Would expect a few showers and thunderstorms to begin to
develop by 3 pm as air temperatures reach the low 90s. The best
chance will be I-10 and to the south as seabreeze will likely not
make much progress to the north this afternoon.

For the next couple of days, a weakness will be provide by the
inverted trough feature as it meanders to the west. By late
tonight into Monday, PWAT near or above 2 inches with mean layer
relative humidity over 70 percent is expected to invade the
forecast area. Therefore, a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms is expected on Monday. Guidance shows that an early
start is also possible for southern areas as a decent amount of
nocturnal convection is expected again, however a slightly more
southeast component aloft will help the activity have a better
chance of moving inland.

By Tuesday, a swath of highly anomalous and tropical like air on
the western edge of the subtropical ridge will be entrained into
the inverted trof feature allowing for a significant jump in
moisture values, especially for lower Acadiana. PWAT for lower
Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin is projected to increase to
over 2.25 inches, which is will over the 90th percentile, and mean
layer relative humidity values over 80 percent. So convection
that develops in that portion of the forecast area will have the
potential to be efficient precipitation producers. With that
potential for high rainfall rates, a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of
4) for excessive rainfall that may lead to flash flooding will be
outlined for lower Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The highly anomalous moisture on the east side of an inverted
trough will continue to be pushed into the forecast area on
Wednesday as the subtropical ridge begins to build in from the
east. Projected PWAT values are over 2.25 inches and above the
90th percentile with mean layer relative humidity over 80 percent.
With the weakness aloft and daytime heating working with the
moisture expect a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon hours and near the seabreeze
boundary. With the high moisture content, the showers and storms
will have the potential to be some torrential downpours and
therefore a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive
rainfall will be outlined for eastern portions of the forecast
area.

By Thursday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build into the
forecast area and will continue to expand into the forecast area
during the end of the week. This will provide typical summertime
weather with hot and humid days, muggy night, and scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions currently at the terminals. Expect cu to continue
to develop during the afternoon hours with daytime heating,
although ceilings are expected to remain at VFR levels. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to form by max
heating, so will mention VCTS at terminals after 10/20z.

Convection is expected to dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating by 11/02z with fair and stable conditions during the
night. Outside chance of some patchy light fog toward sunrise,
however will keep all terminals at VFR at this time.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A weak pressure pattern over the northwest Gulf will help provide
mainly light winds and low seas into early next week. A weak
surface high will ridge into the coastal waters from the east by
Wednesday providing mainly light onshore winds. An inverted
trough over the northwest Gulf will increase the chance for
showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters during the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A weakness moving across the northwest Gulf will help increase
moisture over the area early next week. Rain chances will increase
with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon minimum
relative humidity values will be over 50 percent on Monday and
over 60 percent by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  73  92 /  20  50  20  60
LCH  76  92  76  91 /  40  70  40  70
LFT  76  91  75  90 /  30  70  30  70
BPT  76  91  76  92 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07