647
FXUS64 KLCH 051108
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
608 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Max heat indices top out in the 100 to 105F range through the weekend.
  Gradual increase over the next work week.

- Weakness aloft to allow for isolated to scattered showers and
  thunderstorms today. Scattered to numerous likely Sun thru
  Tues.

- When thunder roars, go indoors!!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The dreary and humid Independence Day Holiday has come to an end.
That doesn`t mean the fun is over, though! Holiday celebrations
will continue through the weekend; let`s see what to expect.

Weak high pressure ridge overhead continues to erode between wave to
the west and expanding low (Tropical Depression 3) to the east.
Subsidence between these two features should keep rain chances in
check today. Anything that does develop should be isolated to
widely scattered and diurnally driven rather than the widespread
showery canopy we had on Friday. Subsidence should also result in
a more broken sky today allowing for more sunshine to poke
through. Highs in the mid 90s and HIs in the 100 to 105F range can
be expected. For those out and about, please observe heat risk
mitigation strategies for yourself and others.

Upper low should expand and meander west by Sunday, setting up a
stagnant pattern with weakness present over the northern Gulf
states through the first part of the week. This opens the door
for increases in afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
activity. Temps in the mid 90s are expected Sunday as the low is
making its way over. By Monday with greater expected coverage of
convection, temps should top out in the low to mid 90s. Max HIs
each day will top out in the same range we`ve been seeing: 100 to
105F.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper weakness will be present as we transition to the longterm
period. From Tue to Thu, the upper low meanders south towards
south Texas before it washes out altogether later on Thursday. As
it moves away from the northern Gulf, sfc high ridges across the
northeast Gulf from east to west. This transitioning pattern
should result in a gradual decrease in rainfall coverage from the
middle week into the weekend.

As such, decreases in rain-generated cloud cover will allow high
temps into the mid to upper 90s each day. Maximum apparent
temperatures through the longterm period will be dependent on
which source region wins out: moisture fetch off the Gulf or
dry, southwesterly flow off Texas. Guidance wavers between which
vector the low levels will be pulling from. If we have more dry
influence off Texas, that brings greater mixing, higher than
forecast high Ts but lower overall HIs. A moisture-dominated
fetch will result in lower overall High Ts, but greater daytime
humidity and higher HIs. It is too early to know for certain which
scenario we`ll see later in the week. Eventually we`ll get to Heat
Advisory Criteria (Max Heat Indices greater than or equal to
108F). The end of the longterm could be that time!

As always, focus on heat risk mitigating strategies. Summertime is
a marathon, not a sprint! Stay prepared and vigilant over these
long stretches of heat and humidity, no matter if you`re outdoors
daily or just out at times.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Main issue in the near term is the patchy fog and low clouds at
KAEX with occasional IFR conditions, The fog and low clouds are
expected to lift by 05/14z.

For the remainder of the day, mainly VFR conditions are expected
with light winds. There is a small probability of seeing
convection later this afternoon along any sea breeze that may form
and therefore will have VCSH at KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA after
05/20-21z to handle this.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Expect to see a gradual return to typical summertime shower and
storm activity from this weekend into the next work week. Weak
surface high pressure meandering around the northwest Gulf today
and early Sunday will keep seas low and rain chances fairly low.
By Sunday afternoon and beyond, expect daily chances for scattered
to numerous shower and thunderstorms over coastal waters.

Seas will remain low through the period as patterns stall and
weakness remains overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Weak surface high pressure moving around the northern Gulf will
keep rain chances in check today with only a 20 to 30 percent
chance of rain expected along and south of I-10. By later Sunday
and into the work week, the pattern stalls out with weakness
lingering overhead. This should result in a return of diurnally
driven scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to start
the work week.

Daily minimum RH values in the 40 to 65 percent range can be
expected. With little forcing, winds will also remain fairly low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  73  96  72 /  10  10  30  10
LCH  93  75  94  75 /  30  10  40  20
LFT  93  75  92  75 /  30  10  70  20
BPT  92  73  93  74 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...07