257
FXUS64 KLCH 111108
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
508 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first freeze of the year is likely tonight along and north
  of I-10 and Acadiana. A frost advisory is in effect for the
  southern parts of SE Texas along with S Calcasieu and Cameron.

- A Fire Danger Statement will be in effect Tuesday as a result
  of low RH and antecedent dry conditions making dry fuels easily
  ignitable.

- Temperatures over the period will become well above normal with
  little to no rain chances until this weekend into early next
  work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 507 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Surface high pressure is currently centered almost directly
overhead, resulting in light northerly to calm winds and clear
skies. This setup will allow for the coldest conditions of this
brief cold snap, with overnight lows expected to fall into the
upper 20s to 30s.

A Frost Advisory is in effect for Jefferson and S. Orange Counties
as well as S. Calcasieu, S. Jeff Davis, and Cameron Parishes.
While subfreezing temperatures are not expected in these areas,
frost formation is likely on exposed outdoor vegetation. Elsewhere
in the CWA, a Freeze Warning remains in effect where at or below
subfreezing temperatures are anticipated.

The surface high pressure will quickly shift east on Tuesday,
allowing southerly flow to return by lunchtime. From Tuesday
onward, we will see a rapid warming and moistening trend as a
warmer Gulf airmass advects into the area. By the end of the short
term, MaxTs will rebound into the mid 70s to lower 80s while MinTs
only fall to the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dewpoints will also see a
steep rise, but despite this increasing moisture, PoPs will remain
near zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 507 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The warm and dry pattern holds until the weekend, with little
change expected weather wise. Temperatures will remain well above
seasonal averages and rain chances will be minimal. The surface
high pressure will be firmly anchored over the SE CONUS,
maintaining prevailing southerly flow for several days. Flow aloft
is forecast to be predominantly zonal during this period.

We can look forward to a pattern change late this weekend into
early next week. By Saturday into Sunday, a cutoff upper low will
be centered near the AZ/MX border. Closer to the surface, a
tightening pressure gradient will form between the aforementioned
high pressure to our east and low pressures advancing from the
west. This gradient will lead to increasing and potentially quite
gusty southerly flow. This enhanced moisture and lift may support
isolated to scattered showers, particularly Sunday.

Sunday into Monday, the upper low and an associated cold front are
expected to be positioned over the Southern Plains. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated ahead of and
along this boundary. While it is far too early to talk about
specific QPF amounts, current guidance shows high confidence in
rainfall: there is at least an 85 percent chance of receiving
measurable (0.01+ inches) rainfall and at least a 65 percent
chance of receiving a wetting rain (0.25+ inches).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Once again just a wind forecast today as VFR conditions prevail.
Light winds this morning will increase a bit through the mid/late
morning hours, remaining slightly elevated through the afternoon
before decreasing again with sunset tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  44  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  65  55  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  62  49  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  68  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ027>033-044-
     045-055-141>143-152>154-243-252>254.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ073-074-241-
     242.

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ180-201-
     259>262-516.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ515-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...17