634
FXUS63 KLBF 111134
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected for areas
  of the western Sandhills into the Panhandle today. Southwest
  winds will increase this afternoon along with low humidity
  values.

- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions are
  expected Thursday ahead of a powerful storm system. These
  conditions will affect all of western and north central
  Nebraska. Strong south winds will combine with low humidity to
  create the conditions.

- A powerful storm system will cross the area Friday into
  Saturday. Very strong winds are expected, but snowfall
  amounts and potential blowing snow remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Flow aloft becomes nearly zonal aloft today ahead of an approaching
shortwave moving onshore the southwest U.S. coast. A leeward surface
trough will deepen ahead of this feature, with winds becoming
south to southwest across the western half of the area by this
afternoon east of the trough. Bufkit sounding data indicates
deep mixing and potential wind gusts around 30 mph. This would
be for areas mainly west of Highway 61. Air aloft remains very
dry, with this drier air having no problem mixing to the
surface. Appears humidity values will fall to near or perhaps
just below 20% as highs reach into the mid 60s. The combination
of these factors will bring near-critical fire weather concerns
for areas along, and especially west of Highway 61 this
afternoon.

The leeward surface trough will weaken as it advances eastward
across the area tonight. Weak surface high pressure builds into the
area overnight as well with winds becoming light. These light winds
will continue into the day Wednesday. Although humidity will still
be quite low Wednesday, light winds will bring a reprieve from
the heightened fire weather concerns. The light winds will
continue into Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Thursday, a deep longwave trough will be moving onshore across the
western U.S. coast. This feature will advance eastward into the
Intermountain West by later in the day. Rapid surface cyclogenesis
will occur ahead of this, with a 988mb low located across northeast
Colorado by Friday evening. The surface pressure gradient will
tighten through the day across the plains ahead of the deepening
low. Return low-level moisture will be limited as the southerly
winds increase. With the low humidity and gusty south winds, near-
critical or critical fire weather conditions appear they will likely
develop across all of the area by Thursday afternoon. Dew points do
begin to rise some east of Highway 83 Thursday night, but not enough
to bring good humidity recovery. Appears maximum humidity values
will only reach 50-60% Thursday night as gusty south winds continue
through the night.

The longwave trough will bottom out across the four corners region
Thursday night. On Friday, it advances eastward as a deep negatively
tilted system across the plains. GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means are very
close together, with a deep surface low (sub 980mb) centered across
far northern Kansas by early Friday evening. A strong cold front
will be moving southeastward across western Nebraska during this
time. Strong winds will be very likely on the backside of the
surface low. NBM and the Grand Ensemble are all indicating at least
a moderate probability of winds gusting 50+ mph Friday night into
Saturday across nearly all of western and north central
Nebraska.

What continues to be uncertain is the amount of precipitation,
including snow and blowing snow, that may accompany the system.
The moisture will be limited initially, with the deeper Gulf
moisture remaining southeast of the area. This, along with the
fast forward speed of the system, will likely limit the amount
of precipitation that develops/falls across our area. Thermal
profiles continue to indicate that what does fall Friday night
into Saturday will be a mix of rain and snow...with a change
over to all snow possible. Overall, snowfall accumulation
probabilities have decreased. The areas most at risk for some
snow accumulation and blowing snow are across north central
Nebraska. Appears that a brief deformation axis could
materialize for a few hours late Friday night into Saturday
morning. This could become problematic if the precipitation
changes over to all snow, as strong winds that will accompany
what falls. Bottom line is this is a very deep/strong system
that will cross the area. Some sort of headline or headlines will
likely be needed as we get closer to the system`s arrival. Stay
up to date with the latest forecast information.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

An area of IFR ceilings have developed behind a cold front
across northern Nebraska. Models are not handling this well, and
it appears to have developed where some low-level moisture has
pooled behind a cold front. This should dissipate later this
morning but overall confidence is low on exactly when. Otherwise
VFR conditions can be expected as winds gradually become
southerly at 5-15 kts this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor