909
FXUS63 KLBF 110818
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early
  evening, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for most of
  western Nebraska.

- A few strong storms are possible late this afternoon and
  evening, east of a Curtis through Butte line. While confidence
  in storm development is low, and storms that form may quickly
  intensify.

- Temperatures will trend downward Tuesday continuing through Thursday.
  Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday,
  rising back into the 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.

- There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning
  Saturday night and continuing into next week. The best
  chances for precipitation are Saturday night into Sunday night
  across the northern half of the forecast area, then Monday
  night across the southern half of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Today into tonight, surface low pressure will deepen and move east
across South Dakota today. A trailing surface trough across western
Nebraska will move east, with westerly winds behind the trough and
southwest winds ahead of it. The stronger winds will range from 15 to
30 mph with gusts to 35 mph across the central Sandhills into north
central Nebraska. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s
throughout the area. Critical fire weather conditions are expected
during the afternoon into the early evening, with a Red Flag Warning
in effect across the western Sandhills into much of north central
Nebraska. Details found in the Fire Weather Section below.

A conditional threat for a few strong thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening across the far southeastern zones. Moderate
instability with SBCAPEs from 2500-3500 J/kg will exist with a weak
cap remaining in place through the afternoon. This should inhibit
thunderstorm development in the afternoon. However, if the cap were
to break, an isolated storm or two could quickly intensify. Large
hail and damaging winds are possible into the evening hours, though
coverage looks very limited. The area of concern will be for areas
east of a line from Curtis through Butte. During the evening and
overnight, a cold front will drop south and south exit the south by
daybreak. Could see isolated light rain showers behind the front
overnight across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska. Lows
will be cooler from the upper 40s northwest Sandhills to the upper
50s far southeast.

Saturday, much cooler behind the front, with highs from 73 to 78
degrees, with a mix of sun and clouds. Northeast winds will become
easterly in the afternoon. Expecting a dry day, except for a slight
chance of showers in central Nebraska in the morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Periodic precipitation chances are the main forecast challenge
in the long term forecast. An upper level low and trough will
enter the northwestern portion of the CONUS Saturday night.
Downstream, ridging will increase from eastern Wyoming into
central Montana. Downstream of this ridge axis, mid level warm
air advection will increase across South Dakota into northern
Nebraska late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The latest NBM
ensembles, with additional support from the deterministic GFS
and EC solns develop precipitation late Saturday night across
northern Nebraska and lift this to the east southeast into
Sunday morning. This precipitation follows a H700 frontal
boundary from southern South Dakota into northern and
northeastern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensemble 12 hr QPF
probabilities have a 40 to 65 percent chance of exceeding 0.10"
of QPF east of a line from Valentine to Burwell ending at 1 PM
on Sunday. That being said, with support from the NBM and
deterministic GFS and EC solns, feel the low end likely pops in
the northeast FA are on track ATTM. The upper level low will
track into the northern Rockies Sunday. Southerly winds will
increase downstream of this low and upper level trough axis from
Kansas northwest into western Nebraska and the northern high
plains of Wyoming, the western Dakotas and eastern Montana.
Decent low level moisture advection will commence Sunday across
the area. By afternoon, a plume of low level moisture surges
north into western Nebraska and the panhandle. The degree of
this moisture is still up in the air with the deterministic
solns tonight with the GFS`s surface dew points well into the
lower 60s, while the NAM12 holds them back into the middle 50s.
Late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, convection looks
to initiate over the Cheyenne Ridge and central Rockies. This
activity then lifts northeast Sunday night into Monday morning,
mainly over western and northern Nebraska. The NBM initialized
with likely pops over the northern third of the forecast area
Sunday night and this appears on track considering the ensemble
QPF forecast has a 50 to 75% chance of QPF`s exceeding 0.10"
Sunday night into Monday morning generally north of highway 2.
As for the severe threat Sunday night, a narrow theta e ridge
noses into the southern Panhandle Sunday afternoon and this is
co-located with decent sfc to 6KM shear~40+kts. Any storms that
do initiate in this environment may be strong to severe
initially, but should weaken as they travel east of the
panhandle. The upper level low and trough will track across
south central Canada, approaching western Hudson Bay by Tuesday
morning. This feature will force a cold front through the
forecast area Monday, stalling this feature out over northern
Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation chances will be
greatest Monday night across the southern forecast area INVOF
the front. This feature will stall out over Kansas Tuesday into
Wednesday with the best threat for precipitation off to the
south of the forecast area. This front will then start to lift
north Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper level trough
tracks east southeast from the pacific NW into the northern
Rockies. This will lead to increasing chances for precipitation
beginning Thursday, carrying over Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the
next 24 hours. Gusty south winds will persist this evening and
overnight, especially across the Sandhills and north central
Nebraska. In addition to this, a strong low level jet will
bring LLWS concerns across most of the region tonight, with
winds around 2,000 ft agl remaining around 40 knots. This will
affect the KLBF terminal until 13Z, and KVTN until 12Z. Gusty
southwest winds Friday morning will become more westerly into
the afternoon with gusts 25KT to 30KT through the day,
especially across north central Nebraska including KVTN.
Winds will turn northerly Friday evening as a cold front moves
south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Near-cricital to critical fire weather conditions are expected
across western and most of north central Nebraska this afternoon
into the evening. Breezy south to southwest winds at the surface
will increase in strength shortly after sunrise as gusty winds aloft
start to mix down to the surface. Localized peak wind gusts could
reach as high as 45 mph during the initial mixing period on the
morning across the northeast portion of our CWA. The wind profile is
expected to become more westerly through the afternoon as a dryline
feature surges east with consistent gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range.
This dryline could push as far east as a line from North Platte to
Butte, plunging humidity values as low at the mid teens. Winds
should start to settle by the mid evening. Isolated chances for
showers as well as overnight humidity recovering around 70 to 80
percent across the region, should help limit the overall threat
continuing into the overnight hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...MRS