181
FXUS63 KLBF 210524
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1124 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will move southwest Nebraska later this afternoon through
  early Saturday with accumulations of around 1-1.5" possible.

- Cooler temperatures continue through the weekend, though
  precise values will depend on timing of snow melt.

- Expect dry to mostly dry conditions for much of next week with
  a return to above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Departing trough responsible for Thursday`s snow continues to deepen
over the Great Lakes thanks to strong synoptic lift. A secondary
shortwave crossing Colorado is bringing increasing high level clouds
across the area. Light precipitation is falling over northeast
Colorado and this activity will move into southwest Nebraska later
tonight. Temperatures, thanks to new snowpack, range from middle
teens to middle 20s. These values exceed 20F below normal for
western Nebraska, certainly making it feel like winter has returned
following the extended period of well above normal temperatures.

For late this afternoon/tonight...modest shortwave trough will cross
the Rockies with a low pressure center forming over southeast
Colorado. Weak height falls will spill into western Nebraska this
evening as the center of circulation tracks through the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Further north, a h7 low will form and
track along and just south of the Nebraska/Kansas border. Along this
trajectory, increasing mid-level fgen will lead to broad
precipitation for southwest Nebraska. With temperatures already
safely sub-freezing and expected cooling tonight, thermal profiles
will support an all snow event. Low-levels will be slow to saturate
but eventually these will be overcome. While forecast soundings show
reasonable DGZ depth and saturation, the lack of stronger lift
should support a slow and steady snowfall rate with less than a half
inch per hour expected. QPF closely matches HREF localized
probability-matched mean output with measurable snow limited to the
I-80 corridor and points south and closer to 0.10" along the
southern Chase/Hayes/Frontier County borders. With snow ratios
around 13-16:1, expecting a light and fluffy snow with totals of 1-
1.5" in our southern three counties and less than an inch north.
Though light and fluffy snow is expected, winds will remain light at
or below 15 mph during active snowfall and limit the threat of
blowing/drifting snow. Even so, visibility reductions remain
possible and folks are advised to use caution if traveling in the
area. Lows should fall into the teens for most and perhaps a few
locations hitting single digits. The increasing cloud cover should
prevent values from falling too significantly and precluding a
repeat of sub-zero lows seen Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

This weekend...Amplifying ridge will build in from the southwest
late Saturday into early Sunday. This will promote dry conditions.
Though typically this coincides with much warmer temperatures, the
residual snowpack will likely hold us back on Saturday with middle
30s to lower 40s expected. Encroaching high pressure over central
Canada will drive a cold front south. Reinforcing cold air is
expected in its wake and as a result, high temperatures on Sunday
will cool slightly with upper 20s to upper 30s expected.

Next week...amplified northwesterly flow will develop on the
downstream side of strengthening ridge. Multiple perturbations
within the mid-level flow will dive southeast across the Midwest and
impacts from these should remain east of the area as a result. A
more pronounced shortwave on the backside of deep troughing over the
Hudson Bay will drive ridging back as flow transitions to zonal.
Even so, temperatures should favor above normal values with NBM
envelope values generally in the 40s/50s for Monday but further
climbing to the 60s/70s for Tuesday through Friday. A stronger
disturbance will approach the area around the middle of next week
but NBM trends have been to decrease PoPs as they retreat north.
Overall this is in good agreement with EPS/GEFS solutions but their
respective deterministic solutions suggest not writing off the
potential just yet. With that in mind, will continue to highlight
dry to mostly dry conditions but mention Wednesday/Thursday bear
watching. The warmer temperatures with westerly flow will again
support increasing fire weather concerns as temperatures return to
well above-normal values and breezy conditions appear plausible.
While it`s too early to get into specifics, each day Tuesday through
Friday will be worth monitoring over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

For the KLBF terminal, expect broken to overcast ceilings
overnight through mid-morning Saturday ranging from 2500 to
3500 FT AGL. Skies will scatter out by mid morning gradually
clearing into the afternoon hours. By late afternoon into
Saturday evening, expect mainly clear skies. For the KVTN
terminal, skies will be broken through Saturday afternoon with
broken VFR ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 Ft AGL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler