443
FXUS63 KLBF 131730
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
  across portions of north central Nebraska. Damaging wind gusts
  will be the primary threat.

- Temperatures remain high on Thursday and Friday. Higher
  humidity across southwest and north central Nebraska will lead
  to heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Additional precipitation chances return this weekend, with
  near daily chances starting Friday lasting into early next
  week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Upper level analysis reveals an upper level high over the Four
Corners region this morning and an upper level trough tracking over
British Columbia. The upper level high is contributing to height
rises over the central United States, with a subtle ridge over
eastern North Dakota. Two small shortwaves are observed over central
Montana and northern Idaho, with the eastern shortwave keeping flow
over western Nebraska fairly zonal. At the surface, a low is
developing over north central Wyoming, behind a stationary boundary
along the front range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

This afternoon and evening bring a fairly active weather pattern
across western and north central Nebraska, with multiple possible
weather impacts. This afternoon, a low pressure system deepens over
eastern Wyoming, ahead of an upper level shortwave. This will help
push a relatively stationary surface boundary off the front range,
making the boundary more of a warm front. Warmer temperatures behind
the front will push afternoon highs into the 90s across the
Panhandle into portions of western Cherry County. Afternoon humidity
values drop to around 25 to 30 percent under this area of higher
temperatures. Winds remain quite gusty out of the south this
afternoon, with wind gusts in excess of 35 mph. This may lead to
elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the Panhandle
this afternoon, especially if the strongest wind gusts overlap with
the lowest humidity values.

Late this afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the Black Hills in vicinity of the surface low. Ahead
of the front, dewpoints build into the 60s. Surface based CAPE
builds into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, with around 40 knots deep
layer shear. As the cluster of storms forms, they are eventually
expected to grow upscale into an MCS across South Dakota and
northern Nebraska. Across northern Nebraska, LCLs are expected to be
fairly high, with a dry near surface layer. This sets up a decent
threat for severe wind gusts across northern portions of the
forecast area. Something to keep an eye on will be the developing
low level jet ahead of the line of storms. The development of this
jet will increase low level helicity values across the region. While
this would normally increase the tornado risk, the generally higher
based nature of the storms should limit the risk of tornado
development. Given the risk for severe wind gusts tonight, and the
low but non-zero tornado risk, there is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
for severe thunderstorms for northern portions of the forecast area,
mainly along and north of Highway 20. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
covers portions of the area roughly along and north of Highway 2,
should the MCS track further south than guidance suggests.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Height rises become more notable on Thursday, with a slight ridge
building over western Nebraska. A very hot afternoon is expected
across western and north central Nebraska, with widespread highs in
the mid to high 90s. Higher dewpoints are expected across southwest
and north central Nebraska, allowing for heat indices to climb into
the high 90s to low 100s. Further west, lower humidity is expected,
with afternoon humidity values dropping around 15 to 20 percent
across the Panhandle. Low humidity and high temperatures may
introduce additional elevated fire weather concerns across western
Nebraska, however, wind gusts are expected to remain under 20 mph,
which may limit the risk. Chances of precipitation remain low on
Thursday afternoon, however, there is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
for severe thunderstorms should thunderstorms develop Thursday
evening. If storms can develop, there should be sufficient mixed
layer CAPE aloft to support a few stronger thunderstorms capable of
producing large hail and gusty winds.

Another hot afternoon is expected on Friday, with highs remaining in
the mid to high 90s across the region. Again, heat indices climb
into the high 90s to low 100s across southwest and north central
Nebraska. A notable shift is expected in the upper level pattern, as
the upper level high is expected further east across the lower
Mississippi Valley and a deeper trough across southern California.
This will allow for a belt of subtropical moisture advection across
the Plains, bringing deeper layer moisture across western Nebraska.
Several shortwaves are expected to track through the flow, aiding in
a fairly active surface pattern. This will set up near daily
precipitation chances across the region starting Friday night and
lasting into early next week. At this time, the severe risk remains
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through tomorrow afternoon. By this evening, thunderstorms are
expected to overspread northern Nebraska from South Dakota, with
a threat for brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.
These storms will exit the area prior to sunrise Thursday
morning.

An increasing southerly LLJ tonight will lead to increasing low
level wind shear for all terminals, which will persist into
sunrise Thursday morning. Winds remain gusty from the south into
this evening, with gusts of 25 to 30kts expected. Winds increase
from the south again tomorrow afternoon, at 15 to 20kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown