661
FXUS63 KLBF 222320
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight

- Severe thunderstorm chances Friday evening

- Cooler temperatures for Memorial Day weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The main concern in the short term will be the chance
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late tonight. Did keep some
of the inherited slight PoPs for late this evening, before 06z, but
confidence is low in any convection developing before midnight.
Convection after midnight is expected to develop as a SW trof
translates eastward. The greatest threat for convection will be
across northern Nebraska into north central Nebraska by
morning. Generally expect more scattered development across the
northern Sandhills with convection tonight to be mostly north
of HWY 92, with lesser more isolated convection south into the
southern Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. The better forcing
and instability is across the northern Sandhills into north
central Nebraska. Convection will be mostly showers and some
isolated thunderstorms possible through the early morning hours
with more thunderstorm activity during the morning hours across
north central Nebraska. Convection across north central Nebraska
may linger into the late afternoon hours as focus then turn to
possible convection to across western Nebraska.

There is a potential for severe thunderstorms Friday evening across
western Nebraska, however the severe setup is largely conditional.
The main hazards will be hail and strong winds, with an isolated
tornado threat. A sfc low will strengthen across the Rockies as it
moves eastward with a triple point access to the west of the
forecast area with the warm front lifting northeast and a dry line
advancing eastward, although low there is an isolated chance for the
potential to see a tornadic threat. Winds will be backed across the
area and help to draw in moisture. However it does appear it will be
a fairly narrow corridor where the tornadic threat exist. There will
also be a threat for large hail should a storm develop with 0 to 3
km MU CAPE values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg and steep lapse rates.
The best environment is generally along and west of HWY 61. However,
as mentioned earlier the severe threat is largely conditional as
stratus that moves in tonight may be rather persistent and stay
in place through most of the afternoon across western Nebraska
keeping a more stable environment. However should far western
Nebraska see clearing tomorrow, enough for daytime heating to
warm temperatures will likely see supercell development, with
potentially splitting cells. Will have to continue to monitor
throughout the day to see if sunshine will prevail or stratus
persist. Storms will likely develop across Colorado and the
Panhandle and move eastward, however there will be a low-level
jet later in the evening that could potential aid in some
additional development across western Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Temperatures will remain cool over the holiday weekend
with highs in the 50s and 60s through early next week. Climatology
wise this is around 10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Although the holiday weekend may not be a complete wash
out, chances for showers and thunderstorms exist everyday,
Saturday, Sunday, and Memorial Day. The risk for any potential
flooding is low as rainfall is not expected to be heavy
rainfall, but could see the potential of a half inch to an inch
of total rainfall across the area from Thursday night through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Cloud cover will increase into the overnight hours with an
increased threat for thunderstorms at both terminals overnight.
The greatest threat for thunderstorms is between 08z and 12z
Friday. Ceilings will fall from 8000 FT AGL to 2500 to 3000 FT
AGL toward 12z Friday. Ceilings will then fall further Friday
morning to around 1500 FT AGL and remain there until mid
afternoon, increasing to 2000 to 3000 FT AGL Friday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Buttler