560
FXUS63 KLBF 090525
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1225 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for much of
  western and central Nebraska on Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday
  afternoon/night, mainly over western and southwestern
  Nebraska. The severe threat is low.

- Well above average temperatures are expected next week, with
  highs returning to the 80s. Highs on Monday and Thursday are
  forecasted to approach 90.

- Near critical, and possibly critical fire weather conditions
  are possible Monday through Wednesday across the area.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a closed area of low pressure over
Hudson Bay in Canada. A trough extended south of this feature
to Lake Superior. A second trough of low pressure extended from
Quebec, south into New England. Further west, a ridge of high
pressure extended from northern California, north into British
Columbia. Immediately west of this feature, a shortwave trough
of low pressure extended along the west coast of Canada to just
off the shore of Washington State. Further east, a shortwave
trough was present from central Nebraska southwest into
northeastern Colorado. This disturbance continues to drop
southeast today and a broad shield of clouds in association with
this feature were located over central and eastern Kansas this
afternoon. Another decent disturbance was located just south of
New Mexico, while high pressure was located over western Cuba.
At the surface this afternoon, a stationary front was situated
from southwestern Kansas into northern Missouri. Winds behind
the front were northwesterly this afternoon with gusts in the
25 to 35 MPH range. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with
abundant altocumulus clouds across the forecast area.
Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 66 at Gordon to 75
degrees at Broken Bow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Overnight, the shortwave, currently off the coast of Washington
State, will migrate east, ending up over western Montana by 12z
Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will track across South
Dakota tonight, backing into northeastern Nebraska by 12z
Saturday. This feature will then back into the forecast area
from the east on Saturday. For tonight, am expecting relatively
clear skies and light winds across the area. This will allow
lows to reach the lower 40s across the area. Based on the latest
MAV guidance, will trend lows down slightly in the Platte River
Valley where readings around 40 seem reasonable. On Saturday,
the cold front will push into the northern half of the forecast
area midday. Highs across the northern forecast area will be in
the mid to upper 60s. Highs south of the front, generally south
of highway 2, will be in the 70s. By mid afternoon, the H85
front will extend from the Panhandle, southeast into SW
Nebraska. Later in the afternoon, the shortwave will approach
northeastern Wyoming from western Montana. In advance of this
feature, steepening lapse rates, coupled with the approach of
the shortwave will lead to the development of showers across the
Black Hills and far NW Nebraska. This activity will then track
to the south southeast into the evening hours. Modest 300-500
J/KG mixed layer CAPE is present from the southern Panhandle
into SW Nebraska Saturday afternoon, per the latest NAM12 soln.
The threat for thunderstorms is also supported by slightly
negative LI`s in the before mentioned areas. With this
instability present, decided to insert a mention of thunder in
the forecast for the Saturday/Saturday evening time period. ATTM
any severe threat should be minor given the lack of low level
moisture and would be confined to a threat for marginally gusty
winds (ie. non-severe). The cold front will be forced further
south Saturday night into Sunday. This, coupled with the exiting
shortwave, will lead to cooler and drier conditions for Sunday.
As for fire weather concerns, Saturday will feature slightly
cooler temps and Sunday even cooler. Winds on Saturday may
briefly meet critical red flag criteria, however with the cooler
temps and min RH in the upper 20s to upper 30s%, no critical
RFW conditions are anticipated ATTM. Sunday will see lighter
winds and min RH around 30 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A broad ridge of high pressure aloft will build into the
southwestern CONUS Monday, transitioning east midweek next week.
This feature will lead to high temperatures well into the 80s
for Monday through Friday. As for fire weather concerns, they
appear greatest on Monday and Wednesday in the west and Tuesday
in the east. Min RH on Monday and Wednesday reaches 15 to 20
percent across the area. Min RH on Tuesday, approaches 20
percent for the entire forecast area. Winds appear strongest
Monday and Wednesday with good gust potential up to 25 MPH per
the latest NBM probabilistic ensemble forecast. On Tuesday
afternoon, gust potential up to 25 MPH looks decent in the
eastern CWA per the latest NBM ensemble probabilistic forecast.
After Wednesday, the NBM does hold onto the drier air across the
forecast area. However, the latest deterministic, GFS and EC
soln`s do push a plume of gulf moisture north into the area
Thursday and Friday. This results in surface dew points reaching
into the 50s. This will reduce the fire threat across the area,
replacing it with a threat for thunderstorms. The latest GFS
soln develops a nice instability axis from the southern into the
central Plains toward the end of next week. With the ridge
beginning to break down midweek next week and a transition to
west and west southwest flow aloft, we could see the first
decent threat for strong to potentially severe storms across the
area late next week. This possible threat was mentioned in the
latest SWOD48 from SPC earlier today.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraka throughout the effective TAF period. Light and
variable winds continue throughout the night, briefly becoming
westerly in the morning. As a cold front tracks through the region,
winds shift to northerly and become gusty throughout the afternoon
and evening. After sunset, as an inversion develops, winds again
become light and variable. Cloud cover is expected overnight and
into the morning, with VFR ceilings remaining and light rain showers
across southwest Nebraska. Late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms
are possible across western and southwestern Nebraska, but
confidence in coverage is low at this time, so will omit from
TAFs.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie