964
FXUS63 KLBF 052014
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
314 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers crossing the area this afternoon will move east of
  the area tonight. Still a few isolated showers cannot be ruled
  out through Friday behind the initial shower activity.

- A decent weather disturbance will bring another increase in shower/thunder
  chances, especially to southwest Nebraska Friday night.

- Precipitation chances continue to look slight at best this
  weekend. Temperatures will warm to near normal Saturday but
  fall back to somewhat below Sunday behind a cold front.

- Below normal temperatures to start the week will gradually
  warm to above normal by mid-week. Mainly dry weather is
  currently expected Monday and Tuesday. Chances for a few
  storms return Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

It appears that the severe threat which develops later this
afternoon should mainly be confined to portions of the southern
Nebraska Panhandle into northeast Colorado. Low-level laps rates are
steeper in this area to the west of the overcast conditions. The
better heating has allowed for at least some surface based CAPE to
develop. Scattered convective initiation is ongoing across southeast
Wyoming and the southwest Nebraska Panhandle. Hi-Res model guidance
suggests that most if not all of this activity will move
southeastward into the better instability axis across northeast
Colorado into western Kansas. Will watch far southwest Nebraska,
mostly just Chase county, for possibly being brushed by a stronger
storm late this afternoon into the early evening.

Westerly flow aloft continues Friday as the next shortwave will be
approaching from the west within the flow. Abundant cloud cover is
expected across much of western and north central Nebraska through
the day. There may be some breaks during the afternoon, but overall
it looks to be a cloudy day. Isolated showers will become more
numerous across the Panhandle during the afternoon as ascent
increases from the approaching shortwave. Again tomorrow, it appears
the better instability and severe threat will remain southwest of
the area. As the wave crosses the area Friday night, showers will
become likely, especially across southwest Nebraska south of I-80.
A little thunder cannot be ruled out with some weak mid-level
instability noted.

Friday will bring another below normal day temperature wise, with
highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A large upper level low pressure system will develop southeastward
across Canada toward the Great Lakes this weekend through Tuesday of
next week. Strengthening northwest flow aloft will occur through the
first of the week as this occurs.

At the surface an strong low pressure center will dive southeastward
and be centered across northern Minnesota by late Sunday night. On
Saturday, a weak surface trough will be located across the forecast
area. Very little forcing aloft and meager CAPE is noted across the
area. Convergence along the trough also is very weak. At this time,
it appears there is little chance for convective development given
the above factors.

On Sunday a cold front will cross the area. Shear really ramps up as
the northwest flow aloft increases. As the airmass dries in the low-
levels there is little to no CAPE. A few showers will be possible
with the frontal passage Sunday morning but little chance for any
convection. Another below normal temperature day is expected behind
the front, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Rather breezy as well
with northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Dry weather and below normal temperatures to start the week will
transition to above normal by the middle of the week. As the Bermuda
high expands westward across the western Atlantic, a persistent
southerly low-level flow develops from the Caribbean into the
central plains. This will bring increasing dew points and a
potential uptick in thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

An area of rain will move east to west across the area this
afternoon, with isolated showers lingering through tonight into
Friday morning. An area of low clouds will develop in the wake
of the rainfall, and will linger across much of the region
through Friday morning. Expecting MVFR and localized IFR this
afternoon through Friday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor