644
FXUS63 KLBF 130843
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
343 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across
  the southeastern counties near a weak frontal boundary this
  afternoon/early evening.

- A cold front move into the area Tuesday, bringing a return of
  thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, some possibly
  strong to severe across north central Nebraska.

- Much below average temperatures in the 70s to near 80
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- Active weather returns Friday and Saturday with highs back
  into the 80s, with continued threats for showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Warmer temperatures return to the region today with H5
height rises and a weak surface frontal boundary reaches to
near a Broken Bow through O`Neill line by late this afternoon.
Highs near 90 to the low 90s, which is about 10 to 12 degrees
warmer than yesterday.

Dewpoints will fall into the upper 40s behind the boundary to
the low to mid 60s in front. During peak heating, some towering
cumulus is expected to develop and could see isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development after 3pm CDT near and east
of a Stapleton through Butte line, with a propagation to the
southeast. A few of the CAMs support this, but not most, so POPS
remain limited to 15 to 20 percent in line with the previous
forecast. A Marginal Risk for severe storms is forecast by SPC
across portions of Minnesota and southeast South Dakota, to
just into eastern portions of Boyd, Holt and Wheeler County.
Deep layer shear and forcing along the surface boundary will be
weaker than to our northeast, yet still supporting of storms
briefly becoming strong with hail and strong wind gusts
possible. Any activity should end by 8pm, with the loss of
heating. Winds light and variable to light southeast tonight
with mostly clear skies and lows 60 to 65.

Monday will be the warmest day this week across the area as
highs top out in the low to mid 90s. Surface low pressure
deepening across Wyoming and Colorado will increase the surface
pressure gradient with southerly winds 15 to 25 mph across the
western Sandhills and 10 to 20 mph further east. Could see a few
storms develop and move into northwest Sheridan County late
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms develop to our west, from
southeast Wyoming into the western panhandle and Black Hills.
May see a few storms move across the northwest Sandhills Monday
night as a fairly strong cold front moves through southeast
Montana. A few strong storms may affect the northern panhandle,
including northern Sheridan County during the evening.

A more active weather pattern returns Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday night as an upper trough crosses the northern Plains
into the western Great Lakes.

Tuesday afternoon and evening, a Marginal Risk for severe storms
is forecast across north central Nebraska as a cold front drops
southward. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to
strong destabilization, and thunderstorms should develop by
late afternoon with upscale growth possible into the evening.
Deep-layer flow is not forecast to be overly strong, with
effective shear around 25-30 kt. Given favorable thermodynamic
profiles, this should be more than sufficient for scattered
organized cells capable of produce strong gusts and hail.

Wednesday into Wednesday night, 20-30 POPs exist for showers
and thunderstorms, though the threat for severe weather remains
uncertain. The cold front should advance into Kansas Wednesday
night, with cooler highs and mainly dry conditions Thursday.
This front should then should lift north as a warm front
Thursday night, with chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday night through Saturday. Highs appear poised to return
to the 80s Friday and Saturday, as a flattened upper ridge
strengthens across the southeastern and southern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday evening. Skies
remain clear or mostly clear with ceilings well above 10 kft.
Winds will generally remain under 10 knots, however, they are
expected to change from the south to the northwest by tomorrow
afternoon before changing back to east northeast during the
evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik