651
FXUS63 KLBF 050955
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
355 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers and wintry mix/freezing drizzle possible this
  morning

- Warmer temperatures across western Nebraska today

- Next chance of precipitation Friday night through Saturday

- Colder temperatures next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The main concern in the short term is the wintry precipitation
chances this morning and high temperatures. Currently there are
echoes on radar across portions of the northwest Sandhills,
however drier air near the sfc has been preventing much of the
precipitation from reaching the ground. The lower layers should
saturate over the next couple hours and there will be a brief
window when precipitation mostly in the form of snow showers,
however some light fzdz or wintry mix can`t be ruled out, given
forecast soundings. Confidence in precipitation is low however,
which is supported by model probabilities less than 35% for
precipitation across the Sandhills and the drier air. Any
accumulation would generally be trace/dusting amounts, with
timing early morning, generally before sunrise.

As the advancing warm front continue to move eastward through the
day, the next concern in the short term is just how warm will
temperatures get, and how far east the warm front will advance. The
greatest confidence in warmest temperatures is across western
Nebraska, as we get closer to central/north central Nebraska there
is more uncertainty and could see a greater spread of
temperatures. Did increase temperatures a few degrees across
western Nebraska, trending with the warmer models. Probabilities
also indicate a greater than 50% chance that temperatures will
be greater than 57 degrees for areas along and west of HWY 61.
There will be strong thermal ridging across this area as well as
southerly winds today, leading into the greater confidence in
warming temperatures along and west of HWY 61. Temperatures may
even reach 60 degrees and some locations. East of HWY 61
confidence in warming temperatures is less, although did keep
them slightly warmer across central and western Cherry County as
the nose of the thermal ridge extends into the county.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

After the brief warm up, slightly cooler air behind a
passing front will cool temperatures into the upper 30s and 40s for
Thu. and Fri. under quasi-zonal flow. As we head into late week, a
shortwave trof moves into the region late Friday night into
Saturday. Have kept the slight PoPs in the forecast, however
confidence has decreased in Friday night precipitation and would
generally expect any precipitation to mainly fall after
midnight. The greatest likelihood at this time for
precipitation in the form of snow would generally be across the
northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska. Cooler
temperatures are also expected for Saturday was the cold front
passes through, with the coldest air remaining across the north.
Temperatures will cool early next week as a stronger cold front
will bring down colder Arctic air, and a return to single digit
low temperatures or colder.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Stratus continues through the night over western and north central
Nebraska, with ceilings fluctuating from VFR to MVFR. A surge of
moisture overnight will help bring ceilings back to MVFR, but
precise timing remains low confidence, largely driven by a layer of
higher stratus obscuring the lower ceilings on satellite. Have
continue to trend the TAFs towards RAP forecast soundings, which
bring MVFR ceilings by morning, with IFR, and potentially LIFR,
conditions across southwest Nebraska. Additionally, along with the
low ceilings, a dusting of snow may be possible, but confidence
remains low in locations and timing, so will omit from TAFs. By the
afternoon, the clouds move out to the east with a rapid return to
VFR across western and north central Nebraska. The afternoon also
brings gusty surface winds across the Panhandle and northern
Sandhills, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots at the surface. By early
evening, a low level jet is expected to develop, which could
potentially bring LLWS concerns at both terminals around sunset.
Will likely include on follow on TAFs as confidence in the
direction, magnitude, and level become more certain.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Richie