156
FXUS63 KLBF 062017
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weather disturbance will bring another increase in
  shower/thunder chances, especially to southwest into central
  Nebraska late this afternoon and tonight.

- Precipitation chances continue to look slight at best this
  weekend. Temperatures will warm to near normal Saturday but
  fall back to somewhat below Sunday behind a cold front.

- Below normal temperatures to start the week will gradually
  warm to above normal by mid-week. Mainly dry weather is
  currently expected Monday and Tuesday. Chances for a few
  storms return Wednesday into Thursday as humidity and heat
  increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Westerly flow aloft is present across the area with a fairly potent
looking shortwave located across Wyoming. Abundant cloud cover has
persisted across much of western and north central Nebraska this
afternoon. A few breaks in the clouds have been noted, but overall
it remains mainly cloudy. Isolated showers will become more numerous
late this afternoon and evening as ascent and warm mid-level warm
air advection increase as the shortwave begins to move into eastern
Colorado and western Nebraska. The better axis of surface based CAPE
will be located across eastern Colorado into western Kansas late
this afternoon into this thins evening. This area looks primed for
supercell development and the potential for very large hail.

Mid-level lapse rates steepen some tonight as the mid-level wave
crosses the area. Short term Hi-Res models have been indicating that
a cluster of heavier showers/thunder develops after midnight across
southwest Nebraska and then moves eastward across portions of Custer
county and south central Nebraska. This organizes into an area of
stratiform rain/possible thunder across eastern Nebraska after
sunrise Saturday morning.

Behind this area of precipitation, Saturday looks to be mainly dry
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Generally a light
southwest to west low-level flow. Saturday night, a cold front will
surge southward through the area in response to surface low pressure
and an associated upper level low move southeastward across southern
Canada and the northern plains. Does not appear there will be any
convection with the cold front itself, but an area of mid-level FGEN
develops post-frontal with a band of showers dropping southward into
northern Nebraska late Saturday night.

Otherwise near normal temperatures are expected ahead of the cold
front Saturday. A return to below normal readings are expected
Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A large upper level low pressure system will drop over the great
lakes region during the first of the week. Dry weather and below
normal temperatures to start the week will transition to above
normal by the middle of the week.

The upper low will weaken and move into eastern Canada by the middle
of the week as upper level ridging traditions eastward from the
Rockies to the plains. In the meantime, the Bermuda high expands
westward across the western Atlantic. A persistent southerly low-
level flow develops from the Caribbean into the central plains on
the western periphery of the high. This will bring increasing dew
points/humidity and a potential increase in convective chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around this
afternoon through tonight. Mostly expecting conditions to remain
VFR, but some localized MVFR is possible through tonight. All
areas should be VFR Saturday. Winds will be light.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor