050
FXUS63 KLBF 041937
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
237 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening,
  bringing a risk for severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall. A
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains in effect across western
  and north central Nebraska through tonight.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible both Saturday and
  Sunday across all of western and southwest Nebraska, mainly
  west of Highway 83. A Marginal Risk is across most of the
  region both days, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) over the
  northern Panhandle on Saturday.

- A fairly typical early July forecast for the work week, with
  highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Near daily chances (30 to
  40 percent) of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Ongoing convection will continue to track eastward across western
and north central Nebraska the rest of this afternoon and evening.
Multicellular convection is expected to continue, with a few of the
stronger cells capable of producing some gusty winds. More notable
will be the potential for training cells along the surface trough,
which does introduce some potential flooding concerns, particularly
for lower lying areas. PWAT values across the region well exceed the
90th percentile values in PWAT climatology, with values this
afternoon around 1.8 inches. As these cells continue to train along
the surface boundary, taking advantage of the deep atmospheric
moisture, expecting that heavy rainfall continues well into the
evening hours. While current forecast values call for around one
half to one inch of rainfall, locally heavier values are certainly
possible in stronger cells and in areas where cells continue to
redevelop.

As this first round of storms pushes out of the region this evening,
a second round may develop across the Panhandle and track to the
east. However, given the weaker forcing and an environment that has
already been worked over by daytime convection, CAM guidance really
struggles to get a handle on late evening redevelopment of storms.
However, seeing clearing over eastern Wyoming and far western
Nebraska this afternoon along with developing cumulus on satellite.
These observations support that the environment may be building up
for a second round of convection tonight, so will maintain the 30 to
40 percent PoPs across western Nebraska tracking into north central
Nebraska. Expecting that any new convection should be out of the
region shortly after midnight.

Saturday, another round of thunderstorms is possible across western
Nebraska late afternoon into the evening. Instability builds across
the Panhandle during the afternoon, and slightly stronger 500 mb
flow brings in better deep layer shear compared to today. As a
surface boundary tracks into western Nebraska tomorrow evening,
storms are expected to develop, bringing a risk of severe wind gusts
and large hail across western Nebraska, with the best chances along
Pine Ridge in northwest Nebraska. A Slight Risk of severe storms is
localized to the northern Panhandle, with a Marginal Risk extending
further to the east, ending around Highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

An upper level low sets up across the California coast Saturday
evening, which shifts the upper level flow further north across the
Dakotas. The general pattern looking ahead into the work week
continues the flow aloft across the Dakotas, with a few upper level
shortwaves tracking into South Dakota and northern Nebraska. This
will generally set up near typical highs across western and north
central Nebraska, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Along
with this upper pattern, we see a near daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the region, typically around 30 to 40 percent
each afternoon and evening.

Will be worth keeping an eye on trends for Sunday afternoon and
evening. For now, a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms is
outlooked for western and southwest Nebraska, extending into north
central Nebraska. Another round of instability and deep moisture
sets up ahead of a surface front, which primes the environment for
additional severe weather. There is still some uncertainty in where
and when storms develop, which will have impact on storm mode and
expected impacts. However, Sunday looks to be another day worth
watching for some potentially strong thunderstorms, as of now at
least looking like a potential wind and hail threat. Confidence
should begin to increase over the next few forecast cycles, as the
earlier convection will need to be resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are tracking across western Nebraska this
morning and early afternoon, tracking east across the region. These
showers are bringing MVFR ceilings across most of western and north
central Nebraska, with fluctuations to VFR in breaks in the showers.
This activity is expected to continue throughout the day and into
the evening hours, as a low pressure system tracks out of the
region. This will also bring some gusty winds this afternoon, and
potentially into this evening with thunderstorm activity. Will be
monitoring the potential redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
overnight, which may bring additional impacts to local terminals.
For now, confidence is low in overnight storm timing and location,
so have omitted from TAFs for the time being.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie