784
FXUS63 KLBF 171125
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers return on tonight, however, the severe risk is low.

- There`s an increasing potential for severe storms on Sunday
afternoon and evening with Slight (level 2 of 5) risk across
southwest and portions of north central Nebraska.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday and again
on Thursday through Friday although the severe potential is
uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

The upper level low that brought gusty winds and rain to the region
the past few days is finally moving off to the east. In it`s wake,
upper level ridging will continue to build across the Plains before
a shortwave trough begins to propagate off the Rockies tonight. This
will result in dry conditions through much of today before rain
develops across portions of north central Nebraska tonight. Coverage
will remain widely scattered and with weak instability across the
area, any thunderstorms that can develop are not expected to be
severe.

The trough will continue to dig southeastward becoming negatively
tilted as it moves into the Plains by Sunday afternoon and evening.
This trough in combination with high dewpoints and decent
instability will bring a greater chance of severe thunderstorms
across the region by Sunday evening. While the greatest risk of
severe storms will remain to the south across Kansas, the latest
models suggest a narrow ribbon of decent instability with CAPE
values of near 1000 to 1500 J/kg as well as lapse rates near 6 C/km.
This will pose a small window of only about 4 to 6 hours for severe
potential in the late afternoon and early evening before instability
weakens. These storms will initially be discrete and have the
potential to produce large hail up to at least 2 inches in diameter
as well as damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph. The main areas of
concern will be across southwest Nebraska (mainly south of I-80).
However, locations of greatest impact is still a little uncertain as
some hi-res models show storms initiating in southwest Nebraska and
moving well into the Sandhills and north central Nebraska before
weakening. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to
date information about this late weekend severe event.

For temperatures, after a chilly start to this morning (lows in the
mid to upper 30s across the region), temperatures return briefly to
near normals (highs in the low to mid 70s; lows in the mid 40s) for
today and tonight. The exception will be across northern Nebraska
where highs today only rise into the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures
drop slightly into the low 60s (north) to low 70s (south) for Sunday
as rain and clouds hinder diurnal heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Active weather continues through Tuesday night as several rounds of
disturbances impact the region. At this time the severe potential
remains low as current model guidance suggests there will be minimal
instability around. However, a stronger storm or two may still be
possible producing some small hail or briefly gusty winds.
Additional details will become clear over the next couple of
forecast cycles.

Weak upper level ridging returns by Wednesday afternoon with dry
conditions for most locations through next Thursday. Active weather
will then return for the end of the week as near-daily thunderstorm
chances are possible Thursday and Friday nights. Unfortunately the
severe risk remains uncertain at this time.

Temperatures are expected to drop through the first half of the
extended as plenty of clouds and precipitation are expected through
mid-week. The coolest day will be on Tuesday when highs will
struggle to only rise into the 50s, with some locations not rising
above the upper 40s across northern Nebraska. Temperatures begin to
slowly rise once again to near normals in the low to mid 70s by the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon before showers
move into the region this evening. At this time confidence in shower
coverage is too low to put it in the prevailing forecast at this
time. Expect increasing clouds and lowering ceilings even if
precipitation doesn`t reach the terminals by 12Z Sunday. Overall,
winds remain much calmer than the past day with southeast winds
remaining at or below 12 knots through Sunday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik