561
FXUS63 KLBF 092002
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
302 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms the next several evenings bring a risk for
  large hail and damaging wind gusts across western and north
  central Nebraska, though most storms are expected to remain
  elevated.

- Warmer conditions are expected through Tuesday for areas west
  of Highway 83. This may also lead to elevated fire weather
  concerns for areas west of Highway 61 through Tuesday.

- A pattern shift is expected to arrive mid week, with
  conditions switching from warmer and dryer conditions to
  cooler and wetter conditions. Wednesday onward, below average
  temperatures and daily precipitation chances are expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

An upper level high is observed over the Four Corners region, with
subtle ridging across the western United States. The core of
strongest winds aloft remains over the Dakotas, however the edge of
the jet stream is still expected to clip over portions of western
Nebraska this evening. Flow aloft remains mostly west-northwesterly
along the jet, with lower level winds remaining out of the south,
bringing warm air advection aloft. This warm air aloft brings a
fairly strong cap across the environment. A surface low is observed
near the Nebraska-Iowa border, with a cold front tracking across
southern Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

This afternoon, storms are already observed developing across north
central Colorado. These storms are expected to track east, riding
along a surface cold front. However, as mentioned in the synopsis,
the environment is fairly capped, which may limit eventual surface
based convection. However, as seen on the 18z KLBF sounding, there
is ample instability aloft and enough deep layer shear to support
organized convection. However, this should remain mostly elevated
above the cap, which may limit the severe weather concerns to large
hail, though cannot rule out some strong wind gusts with the
stronger cells. However, believe this severe threat will mostly
remain limited to western and southwestern Nebraska, where the
better surface convergence and hotter surface temperatures may help
overcome the cap. Additional showers and thunderstorms may track
across north central Nebraska late night, however, the severe risk
with these storms appears quite low at this time.

As storms exit the region, expecting another night with ample
humidity in the lower levels and very light surface winds. This may
yet again bring patchy fog across portions of the region, especially
southwest to north central Nebraska. Probabilistic guidance and
forecast soundings continue to suggest a strong signal for fog
tonight, however deterministic guidance struggles to generate any
fog. This has brought some lower confidence in determining how dense
fog is expected to be, so may see more drastic visibility reductions
compared to the current forecast. Have increased dewpoints in the
latest forecast, as guidance has been well lower than actual
observed conditions. As more rich moisture is expected across the
region, do believe that fog development is quite likely tonight, and
may potentially need a Dense Fog Advisory later tonight if dense fog
begins to develop earlier than expected.

A very rinse and repeat forecast for Monday, as temperatures remain
mostly seasonal along and east of Highway 83, with warmer
temperatures west of Highway 83. Did slightly bump temperatures
cooler and increase dewpoints, bringing slightly higher humidity
values throughout the afternoon. However, will still need to keep an
eye on potential elevated fire weather concerns west of Highway 61,
where afternoon humidity still falls around 20 to 25 percent, with
gusty southerly winds up to 25 mph. As with today, as a shortwave
tracks into the region, will see some locally enhanced deep layer
shear, with decent instability building across the region. This will
again support a lower end severe weather risk, with a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 5) across the entire region. Should storms develop, the
main threats will again be large hail and potential for damaging
wind gusts. However, any potential convection will again have a low
level cap to overcome, which may keep the storm threat limited to
late afternoon into the evening, and mostly remaining elevated in
nature.

Conditions remain nearly similar on Tuesday, however guidance does
suggest that an upper level trough deepens off the Pacific coast,
with the subtle ridge over the central Plains pushing slightly
further north. With the main core of the upper jet expected to lift
slightly north, this should limit better deep layer shear to more
northern portions of the CWA. Throughout the day, still expecting
that warmer temperatures will persist west of Highway 83, with highs
in the mid to upper 90s, with more seasonal temperatures remaining
east of Highway 83. Again expect to see some lower humidity values
west of Highway 61, with afternoon humidity values falling between
20 to 30 percent. Easterly wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible,
which may keep continued elevated fire weather concerns going
through Tuesday for areas west of Highway 61. By Tuesday evening,
may see some additional storm development across South Dakota
tracking southeast into portions of north central Nebraska. Though
the better severe weather support mostly remains in South Dakota,
still cannot rule out a few of the stronger storms Tuesday evening
to bring a risk for large hail and strong winds. As with the past
several days, forecast soundings continue to suggest convection
should remain more elevated in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

By Wednesday, an upper level trough begins to track across the
western United States, which will help usher in a pattern shift to
cooler and wetter weather. With this trough pushing slowly across
the western United States, there will be better support for
monsoonal moisture to push north and potentially into portions of
western Nebraska. This will support generally better precipitation
chances mid week into the weekend across most of the region.
Ensemble guidance continues to show a fairly strong signal for
precipitation across the region, with the European ensembles
suggesting higher end precipitation amounts compared to the GEFS.
Already some signals begin to suggest additional severe weather
potential for Wednesday. Instability is still expected to build
throughout the day, as temperatures remain near seasonal Wednesday
afternoon. Later throughout the day, guidance suggests an upper
level shortwave enhancing deep layer shear, which may support
organized convection should storms initiate. However, some of the
more fine scale features will still need to be resolved, especially
given the timing of the trough, to gain higher confidence in the
exact severe threats and timing. For what it`s worth, the Storm
Prediction Center has already highlighted a portion of western
Nebraska and South Dakota with a 15 percent chance of severe weather
in the latest outlook for Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, near daily precipitation chances are expected with
temperatures dropping to below normal. In fact, Thursday into the
weekend, highs are currently forecast to only reach into the 70s,
which would be around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average. These
temperatures would be at or below the 10th percentile compared to
local climatology, which would be a big flip from some areas pushing
at or above the 90th percentile earlier in the week. With
temperatures remaining on the cooler side and generally cloudy skies
each day, do think that this will somewhat limit the severe weather
potential. However, as mentioned earlier, the better moisture
streaming into the area may be quite supportive of decent rainfall.
Ensemble probabilities are right around 40 to 60 percent on most of
the area receiving one inch or better (total through the end of the
week), with individual runs in the ensembles generally supporting
this. With this somewhat higher confidence in heavy rain potential,
worth mentioning that the Weather Prediction Center has us outlooked
for at least a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Wednesday and
Thursday, with portions of southwest Nebraska in a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall for Thursday. Will certainly be keeping an eye on
these forecast trends as we approach mid to late week. Even though
there is some uncertainty in exact amounts, confidence continues to
build in at least daily precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and this evening. While a few showers and
thunderstorms may track across the region this evening, as of now,
expecting these will miss area terminals, so have omitted from the
TAFs. Overnight, expect another round of fog and low stratus to form
across southwest Nebraska into north central Nebraska. Forecast
soundings and probabilistic guidance show a strong signal for fog,
but deterministic guidance struggles to resolve it. May need to lower
visibilities in follow on forecasts as confidence in visibility
reductions increases, which may bring IFR to LIFR conditions
overnight and into the early morning hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie