434
FXUS63 KLBF 162013
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the northwestern
Sandhills and far northern Nebraska tonight. There is a small slight
risk (level 2 of 5) over the Pine Ridge. Damaging wind is the main
severe threat.

- The threat for thunderstorms, some strong, will continue Sunday
and Monday with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for portions of the
eastern Sandhills and north central Nebraska.

- Above normal high temperatures are expected through the middle of
next week. There are some hints in the mid range model solutions at
a cool down late next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

H5 analysis from earlier this morning had high pressure anchored
over Missouri. This feature was the center of a broad area of high
pressure located over the southeastern CONUS. Further west, closed
low pressure was located off the west coast of British Columbia with
a trough extending to the south-southeast into southern California.
Across the intermountain west, several shortwaves were noted within
the southwesterly flow aloft. These disturbances were noted over
eastern South Dakota, Wyoming and southern Colorado. At the surface
this afternoon, a stationary front was anchored over the northern
third of South Dakota into central Minnesota. South of the front, a
surface trough of low pressure extended south from west central
South Dakota south into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern
Colorado. Winds west of the trough were variable or light from the
north. Winds east of the trough were southerly and gusting as high
as 21 MPH at Broken Bow as of 2 PM CDT. Temperatures ranged from 85
degrees at Ainsworth to 96 degrees at Thedford.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

The threat for precipitation and localized severe threat over
the far northwestern forecast area are the main forecast
challenges in the near term. The Colorado shortwave (mentioned
above) will continue to lift north northeast over the central
Rockies this evening. Showers and thunderstorms in association
with this feature, will develop over the higher terrain this
afternoon, then along the front ranges of Colorado and far
eastern Wyoming late this afternoon and evening. Activity will
possibly fire east, over the Nebraska Panhandle even later by
mid evening. South-southwesterly mid level winds will keep the
bulk of storms off to the west of the forecast area. However, if
storms do develop in the panhandle. far western and
northwestern portions of the forecast area could see isolated
storms. As for the severe threat, mid level shear decreases
quickly from northern to southern, and eastern to western
portions of the panhandle. More favorable shear exists west and
northwest of the forecast area this evening, so the main severe
threat should miss most of the forecast area. As for severe
mode, looking at forecast soundings, an inverted V type sounding
is present over western and northwestern portions of the
forecast area, favoring a damaging wind threat. One final note
for tonight, I did go ahead and extend some isolated pops east
to the highway 83 corridor as the models do force the surface
trough east this evening, probably a response to storms off to
the west ie. possible outflow boundary. Will limit this to
isolated pops as my forecast confidence is limited. Overnight,
convection should march across South Dakota, along the
stationary frontal boundary, being sustained by a robust H85 low
level jet. On Sunday, there are some indications with the
latest CAMS in setting up a surface boundary across northern
Nebraska. This appears to be either a weak surface frontal
boundary or outflow boundary from expected overnight convection
over South Dakota. Regardless, it is hard to ignore this feature
as the CAMS, as well as the NAM12 soln have this feature parked
over northern portions of the FA Sunday afternoon, developing
precipitation. As for the severe threat Sunday afternoon and
evening, deep layer shear is on the order of 20 to 35 KTS Sunday
afternoon with the lowest in the east and highest shear in the
west. Based on the 12z runs from this morning, the highest shear
and more robust CAPE are not co-located Sunday afternoon as
available CAPE is highest in the east where the lower deep layer
shear resides. Mid level lapse rates increase to 7-8C/KG Sunday
afternoon, which may support a localized hail threat. That
being said, given this disconnect between shear and CAPE and
given the forecast lapse rate, feel that the marginal threat for
severe storms is warranted.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

The upper level high, currently over Missouri, will track west,
becoming established over the Central Rockies Monday. Low
amplitude flow will develop over Nebraska as the high tracks
west. This will lead to threat for thunderstorms Monday, some of
which may be on the strong side. Beyond Monday night, the ridge
will become established over the central rockies. This will
lead to a dry forecast for Tuesday through Thursday with temps
well into the 90s. In fact, the latest EC ensemble guidance has
zero precip with all of its members Wednesday through Friday and
very limited precip on Tuesday. There is some indications in
the mid range solutions of a cold fropa Friday night into next
Saturday, which will drop temps back into the 70s/80s. The
latest NBM has cooler temps arriving a day earlier on Friday,
albeit highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Low pressure located across the Panhandle will help generate
isolated to widely scattered convection between tonight.
Relatively greater storm coverage will be near the SD border,
so have added a PROB30 group for TS and variable/gusty winds to
VTN for the 03-09z Sunday window.

Cloud bases will remain generally elevated, with FEW-SCT CU
with bases around 9kft as well as high cirrus. As the surface
low approaches from the west, E-SE winds will gradually veer S
tonight, with wind speeds around 8-12 kts and gusts up to 20
kts this afternoon at LBF. By 12z Sunday, winds will become
variable at VTN with the surface low positioned overhead, with
SW winds at LBF. Wind speeds during the time will be steady
around 5-10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ007-010-028-
029.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...DWS