878
FXUS63 KLBF 062041
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
341 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost potential tonight is of concern, especially across
  northwest Nebraska.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week.

- A warning trend is expected through the week. Thursday thru
  Saturday could see a few locations over 80 degrees. Most
  likely to occur Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Surface high pressure will settle southeastward and be centered
across the area by Tuesday morning. Skies will clear (at least
somewhat) and winds will be light. Have opted to issue a Frost
Advisory for northwest Nebraska. Temperatures across this area will
fall into the 32-35 degree range and will likely see frost
formation. It has been a month since the last frost across this
area, so after collaboration decided a frost advisory is necessary
due to the lapse since the first frost advisory of the season was
issued nearly a month ago. As far as the rest of the area, could see
some patchy frost across portions of central into southwest
Nebraska. Especially in low-lying areas. A bit uncertain across
southwest Nebraska where a band of mid-level clouds should streak
across from the southwest overnight. Erred on the side of caution
and went with the lower guidance -  since no frost has
occurred yet and not exactly sure how much cloud cover there will
actually end up being.

As the surface high shifts east of the area Tuesday, southerly low-
level flow will gradually develop. Weak WAA will add about 10
degrees to high temperatures, with mid 60s expected at most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Ridging aloft begins to build northward through the plains on
Wednesday. Ridging will continue to amplify Thursday into Friday as
a deep upper trough starts to dig southward along the west coast. By
Saturday, the ridge will shift eastward slightly as the west coast
upper trough begins to eject northeastward toward the northern
Rockies Saturday and into Canada by Sunday. Overall, this looks to
be a dry and warm pattern for our area through Sunday. Highs will
warm from the mid 60s to near 70 Wednesday into the 70s to lower 80s
Thursday through Sunday. As the ridging aloft begins to breakdown
Saturday, gusty south winds appear they will develop. Humidity seems
to remain only marginally low as some low-level moisture is returned
northward into the area on the southerly flow. Will have to monitor
this however, if the air is drier and humidity lower, then some fire
weather concern could develop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

MVFR ceilings should gradually improve across all of western
and north central Nebraska this afternoon. VFR is expected all
areas tonight and lasting into Tuesday. Winds will be light,
less than 10 kts through the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for
NEZ004-022-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor