076
FXUS63 KLBF 041151
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
551 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog/low stratus early Thursday will give way to warmer and
  breezy conditions across the region.

- Snow potential appears to be increasing for Saturday with at
  least light accumulations possible favoring north central
  Nebraska.

- Much warmer temperatures arrive next week with highs 10-20F
  above normal for many Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Satellite analysis depicts a large swath of low stratus stretching
from southern North Dakota down through eastern Colorado. This will
largely colocated with southerly flow on the backside of departing
high pressure, centered over central Iowa as of 09z (3am CST). This
southerly flow has been efficient at introducing richer low-level
moisture with middle to upper 20s dew points now being reported on
area ASOS/AWOS sites across southwest Nebraska. This is helping keep
temperatures milder though still below freezing. With the increased
low-level moisture, some fog/freezing drizzle was reported in the
area and believe this threat will likely persist through daybreak
before waning as focus points elsewhere.

For today/tonight...increased south to southwesterly flow will usher
in a temperature rebound to more seasonable levels across the area.
With h85 values climbing above the freezing mark and breezy
southwest winds, afternoon highs should climb into the upper 30s to
middle 40s. Low stratus will gradually erode and be replaced by high
level clouds during the afternoon with dry conditions expected.
Winds will be breezy with gusts around 25 to potentially 30 mph
during the day. These will turn to more northwesterly as a surface
trough tracks through the area with a slight decrease likely. Lows
tonight will certainly be more mild with low to middle 20s expected.
River valleys may see slightly colder values as cold air drainage
appears probable. This may allow for some locations to reach the
upper teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Friday...another dry day across western Nebraska. West to
northwesterly flow continues as a weak disturbance shifts across the
upper Mississippi Valley. Temperatures at h85 remain largely
unchanged so daytime highs should be a near repeat from Thursday:
upper 30s to middle 40s. Winds will again be breezy with gusts
around 20 to 25 mph, strongest near the SD border. A clipper system
will dive across the Dakotas but impacts should remain north as
NBM/EPS/GEFS probabilities remain muted south of I-90.

Saturday/Sunday...a more unsettled pattern arrives this weekend with
increased precipitation potential including possible accumulating
snow. Some uncertainty remains so confidence is medium at best
regarding the threat for winter impacts. Low-amplitude northwesterly
flow will remain in place as a stronger upper-level disturbance
moves across Canada. Enhanced flow aloft will point a 140+ knot h25
jet into the Central Rockies by early Saturday. Beneath the left-
exit region of this feature, a modest low pressure system will
develop and track along the lee of the Northern Rockies. Ensemble
clustering shows weakening low centers moving along and just north
of the Platte River system of western Nebraska through early
Saturday with only slight disagreements between major ensembles
EPS/GEFS on how far southwest these lows set up. This casts some
doubt on where the greatest low-level forcing sets up. The more
bullish solution, the GFS with the NAM not too far behind, paints
broad warm-air advection preceding the approximately 1000 hPa
surface low. The further northeast placement of the surface low in
the ECMWF/EPS data supports most of the wintry impacts remain across
southeast South Dakota as drier air works in and overspreads the
area. Ensemble probabilities of exceeding 0.1" QPF range from 30-50%
and 40-70% in the EPS and GEFS solutions respectfully. This likely
occurs within the plume of colder air within the northwesterly flow
and thus favors snow. The current forecast hugs closer the wetter
solutions which paints accumulating snow over our far northeast
zones during the day Saturday into the evening. Given a fairly weak
surface low, winds are not anticipated to be overly strong but 20 to
25 mph gusts remain possible. As the system departs late Saturday
evening, wrap-around moisture from the forming h85 and h7 lows may
impact our northern zones into early Sunday. As high pressure shifts
southeast across the Northern Plains, a plume of richer mid-level
moisture will filter in from the northwest with enough lift aloft to
potentially lead to additional light snow across our north. The high
pressure will more notably drive temperatures down across central
and eastern Nebraska while southerly flow further west will keep
things mild. This leads to middle 40s in the west both Saturday and
Sunday but lower 30s falling to the teens in the east for the same
time frame.

Monday and beyond...dry and much warmer weather arrives for the
start of the following work week. Ridging aloft will form off the
coast of Southern California with increasing heights aloft for late
Sunday into Monday. Enhanced northwesterly flow will again dominate
the central CONUS through Ohio Valley. With westerly downsloping
flow likely across the area, temperatures are likely to quickly
climb to above normal values beneath the warmer air associated with
high pressure aloft across the west. This translates to 40s and 50s
Monday through Wednesday with a potential run to the low 60s on
Tuesday. With the strong upper-jet diving south beneath deep
troughing over the Hudson Bay, active weather will likely resume for
the latter half of the week. With timing differences on more
pronounced shortwave disturbances embedded within the mid-level
flow, confidence in day-to-day precipitation predictability wanes
considerably. Even so, and considering noisy output from ensembles,
the potential for a larger system bringing higher impact wintry
weather does not appear overly high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Lingering low stratus and patchy fog will shift east, leaving
both terminals with VFR conditions from mid-morning through the
end of the forecast period.

Satellite imagery shows the back edge of the low cloud cover
stretching from roughly a VTN to SNY line. This will continue to
push east with quick improvement in CIGs at the majority of area
terminals. Concern then focuses on gusty southwest winds this
afternoon, turning more westerly with the passage of a surface
trough. Only high level clouds are expected this afternoon and
potential for anything promoting less than VFR conditions
overnight appears quite low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ