346
FXUS63 KLBF 201121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain above average today and Thursday, with
  highs staying in the 90s across the region.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night,
  lasting into early next week.

- Behind a cold front Thursday night, temperatures drop below
  average, and remain below average through the middle of next
  week. Highs are expected to drop into the low to mid 70s
  Sunday through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Upper level ridging remains in place this afternoon, with a nearly
stationary surface boundary remaining stalled out across north
central Nebraska. Warm air advection from the southwest will allow
the surface boundary to become more of a warm front. Ahead of the
front, areas across north central Nebraska will see highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s, with temperatures behind the front in the low
to mid 90s across western Nebraska. With the warmer temperatures
this afternoon and evening, CAM guidance suggests the possibility of
convective temperatures being reached, potentially allowing for some
very weakly forced and short-lived thunderstorms. However,
confidence is quite low, so have kept PoPs low for this afternoon
and evening.

Thursday, a low pressure system and cold front track southeast
across the Dakotas, as an upper level low tracks across Alberta and
Saskatchewan. Ahead of this system, temperatures climb once again
into the mid 90s across most of the region, with dewpoints in the
upper 50s to 60s. With higher dewpoints to the east, instability is
expected to be greater across eastern Nebraska into portions of
north central Nebraska. Precipitation is not expected through the
morning and afternoon, but by the evening, as the front approaches,
chances of precipitation increase. For now, the best combination of
instability, moisture, and shear are expected over eastern and
central South Dakota, and as such, stronger storms are expected to
the northeast of the region. Given the vicinity of the upper level
high, shear will be quite lacking across western Nebraska, with
upper level flow only around 10 to 20 knots. Some thunderstorm
activity may be expected along the front, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday evening into Friday
morning. However, given the lack of shear, and late evening to
overnight timing, the severe risk remains low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The upper level low continues tracking east, with a few shortwaves
tracking across the northern Plains. This will allow the upper level
high to slightly retrograde, as a deeper trough develops across the
Great Lakes. This pattern will set up northwesterly flow aloft
across western and north central Nebraska. A fairly active surface
pattern along the Rocky Mountains will set up near daily chances of
precipitation across portions of the region Friday into early next
week.

As part of the pattern shift, temperatures are expected to cool off
across the region. Temperatures remain around seasonal on Friday,
with cooler than seasonal temperatures starting on Saturday.
Starting on Sunday, highs are expected to drop even further, with
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s through mid week. For
reference, average highs this time of year are around 86 degrees, so
this would bring temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees below
average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Skies will remain mostly clear,
outside of high based cirrus. Winds remain mostly light out of the
south to southeast, generally at or below 10 knots. A highly
localized patch of fog formed at the KVTN terminal early this
morning, but is already showing signs of clearing and should
continue to quickly clear this morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie