537
FXUS63 KLBF 212339
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
539 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions expected through Sunday with a return to milder
  temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s through Saturday.

* Next potential for precipitation arrives on Sunday night across
  the Pine Ridge and South Dakota border with some light snow
  possible.

* Quieter weather returns for the beginning of next week before a
  more active weather pattern arrives by mid-week bringing an
  accumulating snow potential to most of north central Nebraska.
  Accumulation amounts are uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the weekend
allowing dry conditions to prevail. A surge of warm air advection
with 850 mb temperatures in the 6 to 12 C range through Saturday
will result in a gradual return to above normal highs. Surface
afternoon highs will easily rise into the 50s to low 60s Friday and
Saturday. Latest probabilities show that there`s a nearly 30 to 40
percent chance of exceeding 60 degrees on Friday with a 20 to 30
percent chance of rising above 60 degrees on Saturday across extreme
southwest Nebraska. Therefore, went ahead and bumped up highs a
couple degrees from the inherited forecast to account to the
potential of seeing slightly warmer temperatures. With persistent
warm air advection and plenty of solar radiation (limited clouds),
could easily see highs increasing another degree or two above what
is in the going forecast. While Sunday remains dry, the upper level
ridge will begin to flatten in advance of the next system bringing
below normal in the 40s across much of the area. South of I-80, near
to slightly above normal temperatures in the low to mid 50s are
still expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Weak upper level ridging will allow for surface high pressure to
build southward out of Canada. Dry weather will return for Monday
and Tuesday before the next system moves into the region mid-week.
Cold air advection will push chilly northwest flow into the region
as well bringing much colder temperatures to the region starting in
the beginning of the week. Highs on Monday will range from low 30s
to low 40s and the mid 30s to mid 40s on Tuesday. Overnight lows
will drop into the mid teens to low 20s Sunday night through Tuesday
night.

The next system to bring some precipitation to Nebraska Wednesday
and into Thursday as a developing system pushing off the Rockies.
There is still some uncertainty regarding this system, however, the
latest ensembles indicate a slight increase in accumulation
potential (in the form of snow) for Wednesday and Thursday. Still, a
few deterministic models show little to no precipitation across our
area. Therefore, due to contradicting solutions, confidence in track
and precipitation amounts is low. Despite this, forecaster
confidence in at least a portion of north central seeing some snow,
even light snow or a rain/snow mix, is increasing for the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Have increased PoPs across the region
to around 30 percent with less than 25 percent to the north to
account for the slight shift towards a accumulating system. Will be
watching this developing system closely over the next few days. If
you have holiday travel plans, keep a close eye on the latest
forecast and be prepared to make adjustments to your plans.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally be light and variable to light out of the southeast
this evening through tomorrow morning. Winds will then shift to
the southwest in the afternoon around 5 to 10 kts for areas
across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. Across
northern Nebraska winds will shift to the southwest in the late
morning, then to the west northwest by late afternoon, still
remaining light around 5 to 10 kts. Skies will stay mostly clear
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez