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FXUS63 KLBF 031755
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1255 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing confidence for widespread precipitation across
  central and western Nebraska this afternoon through tonight
  and into Friday.

- Potential for a slushy coating of snow especially form the
  sandhills into the panhandle tonight into Friday.

- A significant warming trend brings temperatures at or above
  normal to central and western Nebraska mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Central and western Nebraska will start the day off with a
surface high right over the region. This will get Thursday off
to a good start, though conditions will be trending down through
the afternoon as the high gets dislodged by a warm front ahead
of a weak surface low pushing up from the south. This will bring
showers up to the I-80 corridor by mid afternoon, then Hwy 2 by
late afternoon/early this evening, and finally Hwy 20 early
this evening. Showery precipitation will continue overnight as
the weak low continues moving northward though a dry slot starts
to diminish precipitation from the southwest. Temperatures will
also fall enough to allow for a wintry ptype from the sandhills
into the panhandle with potential for a slushy coating of snow
by daybreak. On Friday a large area of high pressure will build
southward out of Canada and push a cold front across Nebraska
Friday afternoon. While this will usher in the end of
precipitation Friday night, change to wintry ptype transition
will spread across the region from the northwest before
precipitation diminishes.

Precipitable water anomalies show a good plume of moisture
coming up from the south driven by a modest low level jet with
an axis along or a bit east of Hwy 83. While Bufkit shows the
moisture is reasonably deep values fall a little shy of the 90th
percentile. Forcing is robust with good isentropic lift and mid
level deformation with a bit of added support from some FGEN
forcing. There is also a hint of some elevated instability with
modestly steep mid/upper level lapse rates so there is potential
for some rumbles of thunder tonight. QPF has also trended up
with probabilistic guidance showing almost a 50 percent chance
for liquid amounts of an inch or more in a narrow band from
Imperial up through North Platte to near Thedford, with better
than a 70 percent chance for widespread amounts of one third to
one half inch. While the heaviest precipitation location and
amounts will depend on the track of the surface low and any
embedded convective elements, this is promising to be a much
needed widespread rainfall event for most of central and western
Nebraska tonight through Friday. And for wintry precipitation,
aside from a slushy coating there is up to a 60 percent chance for
accumulations of an inch or two mainly north of Hwy 2 and west of
Hwy 83, though will have to watch for any localized higher
snowfall amounts from dynamic cooling with areas of enhanced
lift/embedded convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing a pattern shift
from a cool western trof being replaced by an initial steep
ridge over the western US that shears off to the north early
next week and is replaced by an even larger ridge by mid to late
next week. This will be a much warmer pattern for central and
western Nebraska with generally dry conditions through next
week. The one caveat will be the period of transition between
ridges when vigorous short wave energy moves out of the PacNW
and dives into the High Plains with potential for some showers
in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Rain showers will slowly move into the region from the south
throughout the afternoon impacting KLBF by 01Z. Rain will eventually
reach northern Nebraska and KVTN by 07Z. Rain will continue
throughout the overnight period and into Friday morning. Visibility
reductions due to falling rain as well as light fog will drop down
to 1 mile at times, especially in the higher intensity bands. Some
cooler air across the north may even result in a rain/snow mix
briefly around sunrise before changing over to all rain once again.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Kulik