410
FXUS63 KLBF 010838
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is expected
  this evening across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska with
  damaging winds and hail being the main threats.

- The next significant chances for thunderstorms arrives on
  Friday and Friday evening, although the severe potential is
  uncertain at this time.

- Daily chances for thunderstorms continues through the weekend
  and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

An embedded shortwave trough was topping an upper ridge over
western Wyoming and southern Montana early this morning. This
will reach the Black Hills and southeastern Wyoming by mid
afternoon as isolated thunderstorms begin to develop.

A few of the CAMs initiate storm develop further east across
the northwest Sandhills after 21Z, with upscale growth
southeastward into the southeast Panhandle, west central and
southwest Nebraska. Others bring isolated convection in from the
west with a slower timing and less coverage of storms into the
evening. As a result limited POPs to 20 to 30 percent across the
western half of the forecast area this evening. Any storms
which develop will be capable of becoming strong to severe,
given steep low and mid level lapser rates, MLCAPEs 1500-2500
J/kg and 35kt of effective bulk shear. Directional vertical
shear from southerly up to 700mb, to westerly at 600mb and
higher support a somewhat curved and elongated hodograph. A
developing low-level jet should help sustain storms after
sunset. Other storms may develop over central and southeast
South Dakota overnight and reach into the northeastern zones.

Highs today will reach the upper 80s to around 90 across the
west, with southerly winds 10 to 20 mph. Lows tonight from the
low to mid 60s.

Wednesday, the upper ridge axis will extend over the region with
highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Morning showers and storms
may be ongoing from southeast South Dakota into northeast
Nebraska, and could affect far northeastern zones in the
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Daily chances for thunderstorms return Thursday night lasting
through the weekend into early next week. The latest guidance
suggests a greater probability of scattered thunderstorm
development on Friday and Friday night as an upper trough and
Pacific cold front crosses the region. While the severe
potential is uncertain, instability and forcing may lead to
stronger and an increased probability for severe storms. Large
hail, frequent lightning, strong winds, and heavy rainfall are
all so possible. Coverage will likely be scattered at most, so
some locations may not see storms. Timing of storms favor the
late afternoon and into the evening which may unfortunately
impact holiday celebrations. Stay tuned to later forecasts as
models come into better agreement on storm coverage and impacts.

Storm chances will continue through the weekend into early next
week. The upper flow will remain fairly zonal Saturday through
Monday, with highs 85 to 90 and humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, except where
thunderstorms occur. Thunderstorms are expected to develop after
21Z across portions of the panhandle and northwest Sandhills and
become scattered southeastward into portions of the central
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. A few strong storms are
possible this evening. This may affect the KVTN and
KLBF terminals this evening, with KLBF with a better chance
after 02Z. DId not include a mention attm, though will consider
including in the 12Z TAF issuance. Light southerly winds this
morning will increase to near 18012g20KT this afternoon into
this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg