928
FXUS63 KLBF 302011
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be below normal through Friday with a gradual
  warmup to more seasonal levels by early next week.

- The threat for severe storms appears low through Friday,
  however an uptick in severe potential, particularly over
  western Nebraska will begin to increase this weekend.

- The threat for thunderstorms will continue through the middle
  of next week, however the severe threat remains uncertain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored over
northern Texas into southern Oklahoma. Weak flow was noted north of
the high with a disturbance over central California and disturbances
over southwestern Nebraska/northwestern Kansas, and over portions of
Wisconsin. Rain showers, in association with the SW Nebraska
shortwave, continue to track from south central into southeastern
Nebraska and SW Iowa and NW Missouri this afternoon. Additional
shower activity developed over northeastern Lincoln County around
noontime and drifted to the south before dissipating. Isolated
showers had also developed over southern South Dakota and were
dropping south into northern Cherry county over the past hour. AT
the surface this afternoon, a cold front was situated across
southern Kansas with high pressure noted over south central Canada.
Winds this afternoon were northeasterly across the forecast area and
with widespread cloudiness, temperatures as of 2 PM CDT, ranged from
70 degrees at Gordon, to 80 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected across the forecast
area over the next 36 hours. The cool temperatures are a result
of persistent cloud cover and cool high pressure, which
transitions from North Dakota into the eastern Dakotas and
Minnesota. Skies will remain mostly cloudy tonight and stratus
development looks probable across southwestern into central
portions of Nebraska. This stratus will develop as winds
transition to the southeast late tonight, forcing additional
boundary moisture northwest from south central and southeastern
Nebraska. The latest HRRR and NAM soln indicates potential for
fog development overnight. Will limit this at patchy as the SREF
visibility probabilities are indicative as such. Also, we
should see an abundance of mid and high clouds lifting into the
area from the west as convection decays over eastern Colorado
into the western Nebraska Panhandle. With cloud cover expected
aloft, this usually is a hindrance to dense fog across the area.
With respect to precipitation: As mentioned earlier, there will
be decaying convection off to the west of the forecast area
tonight. The latest CAMS dissipate any thunderstorms well before
they approach the western forecast area. However there is a
hint for at least some isolated showers across the far western
and southwestern forecast area later tonight per the latest
NAM12 soln and WARW soln. That being said, will continue mention
of pops across the far western forecast area this evening.
ATTM, the threat of this reaching as far east as the highway 83
corridor is minimal and will continue with a dry forecast.
Thursday will start out cloudy for most locations and with
southeasterly winds expected, clouds will not burn off until
afternoon in the central and west. Across the east, the NAM12 is
hinting at clouds remaining well into the afternoon hours. The
combination of clouds, abundant low level moisture and an
easterly component to the winds will limit highs to the 70s
Thursday afternoon across the area. The cool temperatures will
limit instability with the most unstable conditions well west of
the forecast area over eastern Wyoming and the front range of
Colorado. Showers and thunderstorms will develop INVOF this
instability axis and will attempt to lift into the western
forecast area Thursday evening/overnight. ATTM, not real
confident in convection making it east of highway 83 and will
confine pops to the western half of the forecast area as such.
ATTM, available instability and CAPE decreases significantly
from west to east across the panhandle, so not concerned about
any severe storms in the west Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

A broad trough of low pressure aloft, will deepen over the
eastern CONUS and eastern Canada this weekend. This will allow
persistent surface high pressure to remain over the upper
Mississippi valley and western Great Lakes. The result will be a
persistent southerly and southeasterly wind across Nebraska. It
will also allow a stationary front to meander across western
Nebraska this weekend. With the front anchored over western
portions of the forecast area, temperatures will vary widely
across the state with cool temperatures in the eastern half of
the state and seasonal temperatures in the west. Off to the
west, persistent high pressure aloft over the SWRN CONUS will
place the forecast area in low amplitude westerly flow or
northwesterly flow aloft. Numerous disturbances will rotate
around the northern periphery of the high, leading to periodic
chances for thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening
hours Saturday thorugh Wednesday. As for the severe threat, this
pattern will probably result in some degree of severe
thunderstorms across the area. This threat will begin to ramp up
in the far west Friday, then transitioning east into at least
the western half of the forecast area this weekend. The ridge
aloft in the west, will try to transition east next week with
warmer temps pushing into central and eastern Nebraska Tuesday.
Resultant highs Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the middle
80s in the east, to the lower 90s in the west and southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

For the KLBF terminal: Expect broken ceilings ranging from 2500
to 6000 FT AGL this afternoon with a threat for scattered rain
showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms. Expect IFR ceilings
to develop after 11z Thursday with patchy fog expected. Low
ceilings and fog will persist through mid morning Thursday with
MVFR ceilings expected late morning. For the KVTN terminal:
Expect VFR ceilings of 3500 to 7000 FT AGL con persist into the
mid evening hours. There will be some limited clearing late
evening with clouds returning toward daybreak Thursday. For
Thursday morning, there may be a period of 3000 FT Broken
ceilings at the terminal through midday Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler