760
FXUS63 KLBF 211735
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1135 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold Weather Advisories continue through late morning Thursday
  for portions of western and central Nebraska.

- Temperatures climb through the weekend into next week with forecast
  highs reaching 20F above normal each day Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- A dry forecast is in place until around the middle of next
  week with slight chances (< 25%) across the Sandhills and
  central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Broad high pressure has settled into the middle Missouri valley
early Friday morning. Being on the western periphery of said
feature, broad southerly flow has developed across much of Nebraska.
Within this southerly flow, moisture advection has allowed expansive
cloud cover develop which has effectively held temperatures above
the freezing mark for most locations. Should these values hold,
these would be the first overnight low temperatures above 0F in
nearly a week.

Friday...right out of the gates, a Cold Weather Advisory is in
effect for the central Sandhills east through central Nebraska until
9am CST. While cloud cover is diminishing across the area,
temperatures are unlikely to fall too much more. Given current
temperatures in the low single digits outside of the cloud cover,
we`d need to see 15 mph or stronger winds to reach Cold Weather
Advisory criteria (-20F). HREF probabilities suggest this may fail
to materialize casting some doubt on the meeting the conditions to
verify the ongoing headline. Even so, am always hesitant to cancel a
headline early especially before the coldest hours of the morning so
will continue the Advisory for now and evaluate closer to sunrise.
Earlier concerns for light snow across are southwest zones has
diminished. A modest mid-level disturbance across eastern Colorado
should continue to track east-southeast through the day. Any lift
capable of developing precipitation appears more likely to remain
south in Kansas so will keep a dry forecast. Later on, a h85 trough
will move in from the west allowing winds to flip to the west-
northwest during the afternoon. This downsloping wind component
along with warmer air off the surface should allow for appreciable
warmup for our western zones. Did bump daytime highs slightly
utilizing a RAP/NAM blend. This produces upper 30s/low 40s for our
far western zones into the central Sandhills and 20s/low 30s
elsewhere. Gusty southwest winds will precede this h85 trough and
can`t rule out gusts up to around 25 mph. These winds should subside
through the late afternoon. Under mostly clear skies, expect Friday
night lows to fall into the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

This weekend...Height rises quickly follow the mid-level disturbance
which will quickly negate any precipitation potential. Skies will
also clear as subsidence aloft and drier air filters in.
Temperatures will climb day-over-day through early next week with
h85 temperatures reaching the 90th percentile by late Sunday night.
The lone fly in the ointment is how quickly snowpack can melt away.
Given general westerly flow and warming temperatures off the surface
under sunny skies, believe we should see quick melting in the coming
days. NWP guidance suggests most if not all snow is gone by late
Sunday and while not usually perceived as overly accurate, believe
with the setup that it`s within the realm to expect this outcome.
Forecast highs climb to the 40s Saturday followed by widespread 50s
by Sunday. Confidence in this is fairly high as NBM inner-quartile
spread remains limited to around 5F.

Monday and beyond...temperatures will continue to climb as a thermal
ridge noses in from the southwest. Temperatures at h85 climb into
the low to middle teens which remains on the higher side of upper-
air climatology for LBF. Afternoon highs climb into the 60s for each
day Monday and Tuesday though confidence wanes somewhat for Tuesday.
This is due to back-to-back clippers diving southeast across the
northern and central Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. A shot of cooler
air will trail the initial wave which may drop our temperatures some
as well as introduce some gusty winds ahead of and behind the
passing front. The second system will likely track over the area by
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. It`s this wave that introduces
slight chance (< 25%) PoPs across our northern 2/3rds of the
forecast area. This closely matches latest GEFS probabilities for
QPF with similar though less bullish output from the EPS. Given the
warmth, precipitation during the day would fall as rain but cooler
temperatures at night may allow for a rain/snow mix. Confidence on
more precise details is low for now. Ensemble means only paint a few
hundredths of liquid so wetting precipitation appears unlikely at
this time. Though temperatures cool slightly for Wednesday, values
recover for Thursday and Friday with well above normal temperatures
returning. Amplifying flow will develop by late week as upstream
ridging strengthens. The pattern will favor dry conditions and the
continued warmth through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all of western
and north central Nebraska through Saturday. Winds will
generally be light at around 10 kts or less. A few high clouds
can be expected to drift southward into north central Nebraska,
otherwise skies will be clear.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NJ
LONG TERM...NJ
AVIATION...Taylor