303
FXUS63 KLBF 140522
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are expected to overspread northern Nebraska
  this evening from South Dakota. These storms may be strong to
  severe, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western Nebraska
  Thursday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong
  to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- The combination of hot temperatures and humidity will lead to
  increasing heat index values across southwest into central and
  north central Nebraska Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Currently, thunderstorms are forming along the high terrain of
northeastern Wyoming and further east near the Black Hills. Further
southeast, a surface low is positioned across southeastern Wyoming,
with a surface trough extending through the Panhandle. This is
leading to gusty southerly winds across much of the area, as high as
25 to 35 miles per hour. Dewpoints range from the lower 50s across
the western Sandhills to the middle 60s in north central Nebraska.

For this evening and tonight, expect the aforementioned
thunderstorms to continue to progress out of northeastern
Wyoming into southern South Dakota and then northern Nebraska
with time. These storms will congeal into a line as they move
east and southeast with time, primarily posing a threat for
damaging wind gusts. Additional isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across northern Nebraska ahead of this line, though
confidence in this is low for now. Any storms ahead of the line
could be supercellular in nature, with adequate deep layer shear
(~35-45kts) and instability. These more discrete storms will
form within a well mixed environment, and would pose a risk for
damaging winds and hail. At least some threat for dry lightning
could occur with these storms as well, with limited
precipitation expected with their passage.

The main threat will be the encroaching line of storms from the
north, as it pushes into northwest Nebraska by late evening. This
line will encounter increasing instability with eastward extent and
could undergo strengthening with time. However, this will also
coincide with a stabilizing boundary layer. Still, this line should
sustain, and likely develop further south and east, into an
increasing southerly low level jet tonight. Some threat for damaging
wind gusts will likely persist into the early overnight hours north
of HWY 2. Convection then lingers behind the main line into early
tomorrow morning, likely focused atop a lingering cold pool across
north central Nebraska.

Increasing warm advection will boost highs back into the middle to
upper 90s for Thursday afternoon, with dewpoints ranging from the
upper 50s west to the lower 70s in north central Nebraska. The
combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values
approaching 100F for portions of southwest and central Nebraska.
Those with outdoor plans tomorrow should take necessary precautions
to reduce the risk for heat related illnesses.

By late afternoon, scattered thunderstorm development is possible
across the western Sandhills ahead of the surface trough yet again.
These storms will again pose a risk for damaging winds and hail, as
they form within a well mixed boundary layer. A strengthening
southerly low level jet tomorrow evening could again keep
thunderstorms going into the overnight hours for portions of
southwest into central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Yet another warm day is expected for Friday, as upper ridging
remains centered just off to the southeast of the area. High
temperatures again climb into the upper 90s to near 100 Friday
afternoon. Dewpoints look to be a few degrees higher Friday than
Thursday, and this could lead to heat index values exceeding 100F.
Heat headlines may be needed Friday afternoon across southwest into
central and north central Nebraska to address this threat.

Upper ridging then begins to move east by the weekend, with
southwesterly flow establishing aloft in its wake. This will bring a
return of more active weather, as a surface front begins to move
into the area. Near daily threats for thunderstorms should return,
along with temperatures back into the lower 90s. This will limit
heat concerns somewhat, though some locations still will likely see
heat index in the upper 90s. The active regime looks to persist into
early next week, as flow gradually transitions northwesterly aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through the effective TAF period. A line of showers
and thunderstorms is currently tracking across north central
Nebraska and portions of the Sandhills, which is expected to exit
the region in the next few hours. In the wake of the storms, winds
at the surface remain somewhat calm, around 10 knots out of the
south. However, a strong low level jet is expected across the region
overnight, bringing LLWS across most of western and north central
Nebraska through the night. As the jet tracks east and decreases in
strength by the morning, winds remain mostly southerly throughout
the day, with fluctuations from southwest to southeast expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Richie