863
FXUS63 KLBF 201123
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances for Sunday continue to dwindle (< 25%)
  as the main disturbances tracking through the area appears
  likely to remain well east of the local area.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected each
  day Monday and Tuesday due to the combination of above normal
  temperatures, dry air, and breezy winds.

- Greater precipitation chances arrive Monday night into early
  Tuesday (40-60%) and again Tuesday night through Thursday (70-
  90%) with wetting rains appearing probable (50%+).|

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Early this morning, a broad shield of high level cloud cover will
advancing north from the Southern Plains and into eastern Nebraska.
A tandem of mid-level disturbances were tracking through the area
and helping promote southerly moisture advection though moisture
will be shunted east of the local area which will greatly inhibit if
not prevent appreciable precipitation chances across central and
western Nebraska. Broad high pressure was centered over northern
Michigan with ongoing rain and thunderstorms across Oklahoma and
Texas associated with one of the previously mentioned disturbances.

For today, an mid-level trough tracking through the region will be
driven by both prominent northern and southern stream shortwaves.
The former of these is in closer proximity to western Nebraska and
the associated trough axis will gradually shift into the area with
dry air working in behind this feature. The latter of these systems
is helping drive rain and thunderstorms across the Southern Plains
and will become the dominant of the two systems through the day
time. Strengthening upper-level dynamics including divergence aloft
within the right entrance region of 100+ knot h25 jet, strengthening
height falls, and strong DCVA will support deepening low pressure to
our east. On the leading edge of this, strong southerly flow will
promote rapid moisture advection with a quick increase to 150% of
normal PWAT values towards midday Sunday. Further west, however,
general northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will keep the
atmospheric profile on the drier side where PWATs are likely to
remain less than 0.50". This along with stronger low and mid-level
forcing remaining to the east will keep most if not all
precipitation chances outside the local forecast area. Many
deterministic solutions depict no measurable rainfall in the area
with the surface low progged to track near if not immediately east
of I-35. Will maintain a very small sliver of Slight Chance (< 25%)
PoPs along our eastern borders but even this seems overdone. Where
the brunt of this precipitation occurs across eastern Nebraska,
temperatures may struggle to climb much. Being a dry to mostly dry
forecast, did boost afternoon highs slightly for today with most
locations reaching the upper 50s into the 60s. These values are near
to slightly below normal for mid to late April. What precipitation
chances materialize for central Nebraska should quickly depart to
the east leaving dry conditions by late afternoon. For tonight, did
increase forecast lows as well. Expecting values to fall into the
30s which is near normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

As troughing lifts north and east into the Great Lakes region
Monday, mid-level heights will quickly fill in. Clear skies early in
the day will gradually fill in as the next mid-level disturbance
moves onto the Northern Plains through the day. While most upper-
level dynamics will be focused north of Nebraska, another modest low
pressure tracking into South Dakota will drag a surface trough and
trailing cool front later in the day to western Nebraska. Ahead of
this, strengthening southwesterly flow off the surface will drive a
wedge of dry air in from the Desert Southwest. This incoming dry air
should help keep precipitation chances at bay through the day but
also promote fire weather concerns of which details regarding this
can be found in the accompanying Fire Weather discussion.
Eventually, a Pacific cool front will overtake the surface trough
and introduce a slight uptick in moisture quality. The forecast
trend has been to delay onset of precipitation chances by 3-6 hours.
Precipitation chances will remain limited Monday afternoon/evening,
generally 20-40%. Later on, as the cool front interacts with the
stronger southerly flow containing richer moisture content thanks to
a better fetch from the Gulf, rain and even a few thunderstorms will
become possible across our far east. It`s this area where PoPs are
maximized in the 50-60% range with some mention of thunder. MUCAPE
values should approach 500 j/kg and be enough to promote the mention
of thunderstorms but fall well short of being concerned for any
strong or severe threat. The latest Day 2 Outlook from the Storm
Prediction Center suggests similar thinking with respect to thunder
but displays no severe outlook in the region. With the stronger
southwesterly flow which is a favorable mixing wind, afternoon highs
should safely climb into the 70s and even make a run at 80F for a
few locations south of Interstate 80. As the frontal boundary clears
the area, precipitation will quickly follow and exit prior to
sunrise on Tuesday. The lingering cloud and limiting precipitation
potential should hold overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s
in the east while clearing skies and westerly downsloping winds
should allow for cooler conditions to the west where forecast lows
will fall into the low to middle 30s. No Frost Headlines are
expected as we have yet to reach the median last frost dates in
local climatology.

Tuesday through Thursday...a more active period is set to affect
much of the region and this will include increased precipitation
potential including the likelihood of wetting QPF. A stout mid-level
low will develop along the US/Canadian border with fairly zonal flow
setting up across much of the CONUS by late Tuesday. Later on, the
next disturbance will dive south along the West Coast with
broadening southwesterly flow setting up across the Desert Southwest
through the Central Plains. This will again introduce moisture
advection into the are and set the stage for a wet 24 to 48 hour
stretch of the forecast. A modest low pressure system will set up
along the Front Range with a warm front settled across Kansas.
Eventually this front will lift north into Nebraska and the steady
southerly flow into this front will allow for a prolonged period of
rain and thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in
painting 50%+ probabilities of seeing QPF exceed 0.50" for late
Wednesday into Thursday. This jives with the latest NBM guidance
that suggests Wednesday night into Thursday being the most active
window for precipitation. Instability appears to again be
insufficient to support any strong or severe thunderstorms but
should allow for some general thunderstorms locally. Latest EPS/GEFS
mean values range from 0.25-0.50" across all 26 counties in the
North Platte CWA with some locally higher amounts possible. Even
looking at each ensemble suite`s 75th Percentile output exceeds that
by appreciable amounts so potential exists and appears to be nominal
for a fairly widespread wetting rain event. Temperatures during the
day will be safely warm enough to preclude wintry weather but
overnight temperatures, as they currently are forecast, may support
at least a mix of wet snowflakes at times though impacts appear
unlikely. Daytime temperatures will reach the 60s and 70s with
overnight temperatures largely in the upper 30s and 40s.

Friday and beyond...with expansive southwesterly flow across much of
the central CONUS, an active weather pattern appears likely to
continue through the extended forecast period. This is largely due
to an influx of richer moisture and persistent mid-level
perturbations tracking through the flow aloft. Timing any of the
greater precipitation windows at this range is low confidence but
overall thinking is that precipitation potential, perhaps daily
occurrences, appears probable. This thinking closely matches the
latest 8-14 raw forecast from the NAEFS ensemble which highlights
above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and overnight. A passing surface boundary
today will cause variable wind directions across the region, however
winds generally remain around or below 10 knots. Mid level clouds
are observed on satellite this morning remaining at VFR ceilings
across the region. Clouds will continue to persist throughout the
day, however no impacts are expected to ceilings or visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns will exist today
through Tuesday for much of western and north central Nebraska.

Sunday...near seasonable temperatures and incoming dry air on the
backside of a deepening low pressure across eastern Kansas and
support afternoon humidity minimums falling into the teens to low
20s. While a deep low pressure system will be in the region, a lack
of stronger high pressure to the northwest will limit wind potential
due to the lack of a stronger pressure gradient. Latest NBM
probabilistic guidance suggests the far western Sandhills as the
best potential for seeing wind gusts exceed 25 mph. It`s worth
noting though that this outlook of inclusive for the whole day and
short-term high resolution guidance suggests the strongest of these
wind gusts will arrive late in the day, well beyond peak heating and
the lowest humidity. Because of this, do believe that the threat for
Red Flag Warning criteria being met today is quite low.

Monday...perhaps the day of greatest concern across the region. As
surface low pressure shifts west to east across South Dakota, a
surface trough and Pacific cool front will move into the area by
late day. Ahead of this, enhanced southwest flow with dry air
originating across the Desert Southwest will promote well above
normal temperatures and low afternoon humidity. Daytime highs will
climb into the 70s to near 80F, or roughly 10 to 15F above normal
for mid to late April. Do anticipate afternoon humidity minimums to
fall into the low teens across the southwest to around 20 percent
for northern through north central Nebraska. The latest HREF
ensemble paints increased probabilities of seeing > 25 mph gusts
colocated with < 20% minimum humidity during the afternoon. This
favors areas west of Highway 83 during the mid to late afternoon.
Forecast soundings, even from the more pessimistic NAM, suggests
deep mixing up to ~3km AGL under clear to mostly clear skies. The
greatest question becomes how strong wind gusts actually become. NBM
guidance paints > 80% probabilities of seeing 25 mph gusts or
stronger, but this quickly drops when querying gusts > 35 mph with
probabilities falling below 20% for most locations. On top of that,
late day precipitation potential casts some doubt on expanse and/or
duration of greatest fire weather concerns. Will need to closely
monitor this for potential headlines should confidence in greater
wind gusts and duration materialize.

Tuesday and beyond...following the departure of precipitation
chances early in the morning, another mostly dry daytime with near
to slightly above normal temperatures is expected. Northwesterly
flow in the wake of the Pacific cool front will be gusty at times
but winds will be marginal around 25 mph at their strongest. Day
over day, probabilities of seeing > 25 mph gusts actually fall
considerably for Tuesday with NBM output generally in the 40 to 80%
range for western Nebraska. Will continue to advertise elevated to
near-critical conditions though but increasing precipitation chances
late in the evening heading through the middle of the week should
spell at least an end to fire weather concerns through the remainder
of the week.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ