261
FXUS63 KLBF 061152
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
652 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and general thunderstorms are likely this morning across
  much of west central Nebraska with daytime temperatures
  running 10-15F below normal.

- Cooler temperatures carryover into early Tuesday with patchy
  frost possible over the western Sandhills.

- Temperatures warm beyond midweek with highs returning to the
  upper 70s and lower 80s and mostly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

This morning, scattered showers with a few weak thunderstorms are
overspreading western Nebraska. This was developing in response to a
weak shortwave crossing the Central Rockies. Increasing WAA ahead of
this feature will aid in strengthening fgen, mainly around h7, and
will lead to a few localized areas of more widespread coverage.
Lapse rates and subsequently, instability, remain quite poor with
MUCAPE values only 100-500 j/kg favoring areas south of I-80. This
is where a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but no severe
weather is expected. QPF remains light with only 0.10-0.20" of
rainfall for a select few. Precipitation should clear out by early
afternoon as h5 trough axis clears and mid-level heights begin to
climb. Temperatures today will remain on the cooler side, thanks to
the precipitation and lingering cloud cover. Forecast highs did get
a slight boost from previous forecast owing to higher resolution
short-term guidance, notably the HRRR/RAP/NAM Nest. This
reintroduces a few areas of 60F though most locations remain in the
50s. Winds will remain light and variable as high pressure settles
south into the area. Speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph
all day.

Tonight...aforementioned high pressure will stall over central
Nebraska, lingering through the overnight. This will draw in drier
air as dew point values look to fall into the middle to upper 30s
across the Sandhills. With the fairly light winds and gradually
clearing skies should allow for a good night of radiational cooling.
Statistical guidance, including their respective bias corrected
versions, continue to advertise middle to lower 30s across the
western Sandhills. Did decrease temperatures slightly as a result
and opted to introduce a mention of Patchy Frost for our northwest
zones. A few of these areas have already seen Frost headlines this
season and because of that, no new headlines for Monday night are
expected at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Longwave troughing over Hudson Bay will continue to depart to the
east. Low-amplitude ridging will fill in over the High Plains as a
result. This should allow temperatures to climb. Dry to mostly dry
conditions are likely as upper-level high pressure expands its
influence north into the Central Plains. NBM guidance shows quick
increases of inner-quartile MaxT values Thursday through Sunday,
favoring the upper 70s to lower 80s. The latest forecast highs show
multiple days with values exceeding the 75th percentile in
climatology for both LBF and VTN, peaking Saturday in the lower 80s
for both. The next upper-level disturbance appears set to arrive
sometime over the weekend and this should lead to a return of more
widespread precipitation chances. EPS/GEFS probabilities show
limited confidence though with other minor timing discrepancies so
precise details are far from certain at this time. Overall though,
much of the greatest upper level dynamics will remain to the
northwest and this should prevent too significant of a cooldown.
Latest NAEFS 8-14 Day outlook highlights above normal temperatures
so the expectation is for seasonable to slightly above normal
temperatures to continue into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Isolated to scattered showers continue to track north and east
across central Nebraska. Activity should continue to wane over
the next 2 to 4 hours, with both terminals likely seeing an end
to the threat of rain in that time.

Thereafter, expect lingering low and mid level clouds. This
could potentially extend aviation impacts with MVFR conditions
possibly continuing through much of the daytime today. Tonight,
winds will again become weak as surface high pressure settles
into the area. This may introduce some fog concerns to the area,
however, have kept mention out for now and will advise later
shifts to monitor trends.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ