902
FXUS63 KLBF 121140
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
540 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will persist across portions of central and
  southwestern Nebraska before diminishing from west to east
  later this morning through this afternoon. Additional
  accumulations of another inch or two east of Hwy 83, tapering
  off quickly further to the west.

- High confidence for dangerously cold wind chills of 20 to 25
  degrees below zero across all of central and western Nebraska
  late tonight into early Thursday morning.

- Temperatures trending to at or above normal on Friday, then a
  quick return to conditions well below normal on Saturday along
  with potential for some light snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

While snow continues to fall across the majority of central and western
Nebraska save for the far northwest, the boundary layer has
cooled to the point overnight that we are below the optimum
dendritic growth zone for snowflake growth. The snow that is
falling is quite fine and not a very efficient accumulator so
we`re back close to a 10:1 ratio, and expect this will be the
case through the remainder of this event. Upper level forcing
will continue to support light fine snow through early this
morning before moving off to the east and allowing precipitation
to taper off from west to east late this morning through this
afternoon. Additional accumulations after daybreak will be an
inch or so east of Hwy 83, tapering off quickly further to the
west. No changes planned in timing of the current headline as
lingering snow on the roads will continue to present a hazard
beyond the end of precipitation. Will reevaluate later today to
see how things progress before making a decision on whether to
end the Winter Weather Advisory early.

Guidance has been a bit too warm lately and with fresh snow cover and
temperatures aloft into the lowest percentiles will be shading the
forecast to the colder guidance members for both highs today and lows
tonight. This will give us afternoon readings in the lower teens south
of I-80 and around 10 above/upper single digits to the north. With high
pressure building down from the north right over Nebraska
tonight expect temperatures will drop quickly after sunset with
some very cold readings overnight with a clear cold signal in
EFI/SoT guidance. Actual air temperatures by daybreak Thursday
will range from around 5 below zero across the sandhills and
panhandle to 10 to 15 below zero east of Hwy 83. Despite light
winds early, as the high continues moving to the south there is
an opportunity to see a 10 to 15mph breeze develop in the
predawn hours. Combined with the very cold temperatures, wind
chills late tonight through early Thursday morning will be in
the 20 to 25 below zero range. This gets into dangerous
territory with potential for frostbite and hypothermia in a
matter of minutes, so will be issuing a Cold Weather Advisory
for over night tonight into early Thursday morning.

As the upper trof continues to move off to the east and deamplifying
ridge moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains Thursday we will get
a break from active weather with quiet though breezy conditions.
Thankfully with the surface high off to our southeast the breeze will
start bringing some warmer air into the region with highs Thursday
afternoon ranging from the low/mid 30s west to upper 20s/near 30 east.
Lows Thursday night will generally be in the teens, though a bit colder
across south central Nebraska with readings down to around 10
degrees.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in advertising a progressive
upper level flow regime with ridging on Friday quickly giving way to
another cold, deep trof moving out of the Rockies and digging into the
southern Plains. This will drive development of a Colorado low this
weekend that will deepen considerably as it moves through the
Mississippi valley and into New England by Monday, with a large cold
high building down into the Plains from western Canada behind the low.
So after Friday brings temperatures at or above normal to the
region, we will get a quick return to temperatures well below
normal with a solid signal for cold in EFI/SoT guidance and
temperatures aloft down into the lowest 10th percentile through
the weekend. Passage of another strong cold front will mark the
return of the colder air Friday night into Saturday with gusty
winds and potential for some light snow, though probabilistic
guidance has only up to a 20 percent chance for accumulations of
half an inch or more. The progressive northwest flow will
continue to bring chances for precipitation through the first
part of next week though again any accumulations look light with
probabilistic guidance generally showing no higher than a 20
percent chance for accumulations of one in ch of more through
Wednesday.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Snow showers persist this morning across western and north central
Nebraska, and begin to taper off from the north and west through the
afternoon. Conditions mostly remain IFR, with brief drops to LIFR
across the region this morning. By early afternoon, conditions begin
to improve to MVFR, with a quick return to VFR by the evening.
Across the north and west, conditions will improve to MVFR and VFR
more quickly, potentially returning to VFR by noon. Guidance has
been struggling with ceilings overnight and there is still
disagreement on timing of improving conditions. May need amendments
for ceilings if conditions change more rapidly than anticipated.
Winds remain light out of the north most of the day, becoming light
and variable overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening
to 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ Thursday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-
056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening
for NEZ025>029-036>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Richie