532
FXUS63 KLBF 101939
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
239 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow
  afternoon, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for most of
  western Nebraska.

- Strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon and
  evening, mainly east of a Butte to Broken Bow line. While
  confidence in storm development is low, and storms that form
  may quickly intensify.

- Uncertainty builds into the forecast late this weekend.
  Though there is still some uncertainty, expecting to see
  increasing precipitation chances Sunday night.

- An active pattern remains into mid week, with potential for
  daily precipitation chances a slightly cooler than seasonal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An upper level trough tracks south of the region this afternoon,
with a slight ridge following to the west. Behind the subtle ridge,
mostly zonal flow is observed. Tonight and through most of the day
tomorrow, this will continue a fairly quiet weather pattern, as an
area of subsidence tracks across the region. The main feature of
focus over the next 24 to 26 hours will be the strengthening surface
boundary across western Nebraska. Already, beginning to see the
suggestion of a dry line developing, as lower dewpoints are observed
across eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska down into north central
Colorado. East of this boundary, dewpoints remain relatively highs,
generally staying in the 50s to mid 60s. West of this feature,
already seeing afternoon dewpoints plummet into the 30s. Cannot
completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm to develop along this
feature late this afternoon into the evening, however, expect
anything that may develop would be fairly short lived, given the
more prominent subsidence and fairly dry layers aloft. However, the
warmer and quickly drying conditions across western Nebraska will
continue to support elevated to near critical fire weather concerns
through this evening, with potential for critical fire weather
conditions tomorrow. Will discuss further in the fire weather
section below.

As this dry line feature tracks across the region tomorrow,
expecting very low humidity in its wake, as well as gusty westerly
to southwesterly winds. With these in play, have decided to issue s
Red Flag Warning for portions of the region. A more detailed
discussion can be seen in the fire weather section below. While fire
weather seems to be the main weather story of tomorrow, cannot
completely rule out a bit of a severe weather risk. Ahead of the dry
line, will still see some fairly robust dewpoints, generally
climbing into the 60s for our eastern-most zones. This will help to
build an area of greater instability, especially across central and
eastern Nebraska. However, we may still see a fairly narrow corridor
of heightened instability across our eastern most zones, generally
along and east of a Butte to Broken Bow line. Will also see stronger
winds aloft, supporting greater shear across the region. This may
allow any storms that develop along the surface boundary to quickly
grow, possibly becoming strong to severe. The main threats with
these storms appears to be damaging wind potential and large hail.
However, given the expected environment, confidence in storms
developing in the North Platte CWA remain relatively low. Latest
guidance continues to form most of the convection east of the County
Warning Area, with a few clipping our easternmost portions. All this
to say, though storm chances tomorrow afternoon and evening are low,
any storm that does form may become strong to severe in a short span
of time. Make sure to remain weather aware tomorrow afternoon and
evening, as conditions may quickly change!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Zonal flow aloft is expected to start this weekend, though an upper
level trough will continue to track east across the western United
States. However, there remains some uncertainty in the forward speed
of this trough, as well as its amplitude, which begins to throw a
fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday into the early
week. As for Saturday, expecting the zonal flow aloft to persist,
keeping relatively pleasant highs in the upper 70s across the
region. Throughout the day, expecting low chances for precipitation,
though chances for rain showers and a thunderstorm or two increase
Saturday evening into the overnight hours.

Sunday, however, much will depend on where the trough eventually
ends up. Temperatures, for instance, remain highly uncertain, with
latest NBM guidance showing an astonishing 16 degree difference in
the 25th to 75th percentile solutions! Again, much depends on the
location of the trough. If the trough arrives a bit more early, as
some solutions suggest, then we would favor the cooler temperatures
and higher rain chances through the day, In this faster scenario,
highs would favor the mid 70s to lower 80s, with rain and
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon. However, if the trough is
slower tracking to the east, then we favor a warmer and potentially
drier solution. This scenario would favor highs in the lower 80s to
possibly lower 90s across southwest Nebraska, with lower rain
chances in the afternoon, potentially into the early evening. While
uncertainty remains highest during the daytime hours, do see some
slightly better agreement on the evening into the overnight hours,
which should continue to favor rain chances overnight, especially
across northern Nebraska. This shows up well in ensemble guidance
with the European and GEFS ensembles both highlighting a 50 to 70
percent chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch across northern
portions of Nebraska, with highest confidence in both runs along and
north of Highway 20.

Given that solutions continue to struggle with the location of the
trough, expecting some uncertainty to remain into Monday, mostly in
the precipitation forecast, though there still remains some spread
in the temperature forecast as well. However, given that the upper
level trough is expected to track somewhere to the north, should see
stronger winds aloft across portions of the region, but especially
areas just east of the region. This may bring some stronger shear
across the region, and may be able to support some strong to
potentially severe storms on Monday. Again, confidence remains on
the lower end, given the uncertainty in the location of the upper
level trough. However, this may be a period of time worth keeping an
eye on, especially if the trough favors a slower track across the
region Sunday night into Monday afternoon .

The pattern is expected to remain somewhat active behind the system
on Monday, with another trough pushing into the region. This should
continue to favor continuing chances for rain and thunderstorms
through mid week, with highs generally remaining in the 70s, though
some cooler solutions suggest highs only in the 60s for Tuesday. If
these cooler temperatures come to fruition, this would be slightly
cooler than seasonal, as our typically highs for mid September are
right around 80 to 81 degrees. However, with the fairly active
pattern and high uncertainty in this weekend, still have medium
levels of uncertainty in the mid week forecast, as large scale
models continue to be slightly out of sync on timing of these
potential upper level systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. A few lower fair weather cumulus
clouds are still tracking across southwest Nebraska this afternoon,
however, expecting no impacts to area terminals. Winds may remain
gusty out of the south this afternoon, with a brief pause this
evening. However, winds are expected to intensify again this
evening, especially across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska,
where gusty conditions may persist through the night. In addition to
this, a strong low level jet will bring LLWS concerns across most of
the region tonight, with winds around 2,000 ft agl remaining around
40 to 45 knots. By the morning hours, expecting mixing to develop
quickly, making very gusty conditions tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected to
continue this evening across portions of western Nebraska, largely
driven by lower relative humidity. Continue to see a developing dry
lien feature across portions of western Nebraska this afternoon,
which is expected to surge east tomorrow. Winds across western
Nebraska have generally remained less than 20 mph this afternoon,
though, which is helping to limit a greater fire weather concern
this evening. Overnight, a strong low level jet develops across most
of the region, and even though a stable layer aloft is expected,
will likely see some gusty conditions throughout the nighttime
hours.

These gusty winds aloft will begin to mix to the surface in earnest
shortly after sunrise. Gusty southwesterly to westerly winds are
expected across the region, with the strongest wind gusts generally
expected to remain along and north of Highway 2. As the dry line
feature tracks east through the day, expect to see humidity values
as low as 15 percent in its wake. This may push as far east as
Highway 83, so generally expecting the low relative humidity to
remain along and west of Highway 83, with strongest winds north of
Highway 2. Winds begin out of the southwest through the day,
becoming westerly by the afternoon, with peak gusts around 40 mph.
This will lead to critical fire weather conditions across the
eastern Panhandle, western Sandhills, and portions of north central
Nebraska. Overnight humidity recovers around 75 percent across most
of the region, which should help limit the threat overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Friday for NEZ204-206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Richie