232
FXUS63 KLBF 040759
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
259 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across the
  western Sandhills, as northwesterly winds gust to 30 to 40
  mph. Additional wildfire smoke is expected to move into
  western Nebraska this afternoon.

- Behind the cold front tonight, a slight chance for showers
  and a few thunderstorms across the south.

- A cool, dry pattern Saturday and Sunday as temperatures range
  from 5 to around 10 degrees below normal, with no
  precipitation expected.

- Highs return to the 80s Monday through Wednesday of next
  week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

A cold front was currently analyzed across southern Alberta and
Saskatchewan Canada. Near surface smoke from wildfires has
visibilities across the area from 5 to 7 miles across most of
western Nebraska. Surface high pressure over the area is
bringing cooler temperatures as low as 45 degrees. Thin high
cloudiness remains over western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Today will be the warmest day of the week as another strong
cold front drops through the Dakotas into northern Nebraska late
afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, winds will turn northwest
in the afternoon, with winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Some
gusts will approach 40 mph across the eastern panhandle and
north central. Increased winds to the NBM 75th percentile, with
deep mixing and diurnal heating maximized. Highs to reach the
mid and upper 80s west to the low 80s in the east. With
dewpoints falling into the mid 40s across the west, afternoon
humidity will fall to as low as 20 percent. Fuels are not yet
expected to be very receptive over the western Sandhills, though
wind gusts 30 to 40 mph and low humidity will lead to elevated
fire conditions.

Windy conditions will persist into this evening, as surface
pressure rises occur behind the cold front. With surface high
pressure building in, lows may reach 40 degrees in the
northwest Sandhills. A slight chance of showers and even a few
thunderstorms across the south after midnight.

Friday, much cooler with skies becoming mostly sunny. High
remain near the previous forecast from the upper 60s west to mid
60s east. Winds remain northwest with breezy conditions in the
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Saturday and Sunday, a deep upper low will remain centered over
Ontario Canada with an upper trough across the Northern Plains
and Great Lakes. High temperatures were lowered to the upper 60s
to lower 70s Saturday and Sunday, although some mid 70s return
the the northwest Sandhills by Sunday.

On Monday, upper ridging will build into the region as a weak
shortwave trough crosses the ridge into Monday night. Could see
a few showers or thunderstorms, though the current NBM forecast
is dry except for a slight chance in the east Monday evening.

Highs Monday through Wednesday warm back up into the 80s west
and the upper 70s to low 80s east. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian
models all forecast a strong upper ridge building across the
Central U.S. as a deep upper trough deepens across the West
Coast. Expect warm highs in the 80s with some 90s possible
beyond Wednesday (Day 7).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Wildfire smoke will continue to lead to low-end VFR visibilities
through Friday evening, with brief periods of MVFR possible. Low
stratus is also expected to overspread the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska, with MVFR/IFR CIGs through late Friday
morning. Patchy fog will also be possible through early Friday
afternoon.

Light and variable winds through sunrise quickly strengthen from
the northwest Friday afternoon, with widespread gusts of 25 to
40kts expected. The strongest gusts are expected near and north
of HWY 20.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown