802
FXUS63 KLBF 242328
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and
  tonight, primarily near and south of Interstate 80. Locally
  heavy rainfall will be the main threat.

- Below average temperatures (Highs in the 70s) will continue
  through much of the week, along with near daily threats for
  showers and thunderstorms.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Currently, isolated thunderstorms persist across portions of
southwest Nebraska, within a weak H85 upslope flow regime. These
storms are occurring within a strongly sheared but modestly
unstable zone, and have largely struggled this afternoon. Still,
a few brief instances of stronger storms have been noted today,
and this is expected to be the case into this evening.

By tonight, another modestly increasing low level jet across western
Kansas should lead to increasing thunderstorm development for areas
near and south of I-80 after Midnight CDT. Much like last night and
this morning, deep layer shear will remain adequate for updraft
organization, with straight hodographs with height above the low-
level inversion. That said, any strong storm threat will tempered by
meager MUCAPE overnight, generally <1000J/kg south of I-80. The
greatest risk tonight looks to be locally heavy rainfall, especially
across portions of southwest Nebraska where the greatest
accumulations occurred last night and this morning. These storms
will persist into early Monday morning, before ending by early
afternoon.

Additional scattered thunderstorm development is then possible near
the HWY 20 corridor Monday afternoon, near a surface warm front
draped near the SD/NE border. Instability will again be meager at
best, and should limit any threat for strong to severe storms. The
persistent low stratus in place across portions of the area today
should gradually erode tomorrow, and this should boost temperatures
back into the middle to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Currently, isolated thunderstorms persist across portions of
southwest Nebraska, within a weak H85 upslope flow regime. These
storms are occurring within a strongly sheared but modestly
unstable zone, and have largely struggled this afternoon. Still,
a few brief instances of stronger storms have been noted today,
and this is expected to be the case into this evening.

By tonight, another modestly increasing low level jet across western
Kansas should lead to increasing thunderstorm development for areas
near and south of I-80 after Midnight CDT. Much like last night and
this morning, deep layer shear will remain adequate for updraft
organization, with straight hodographs with height above the low-
level inversion. That said, any strong storm threat will tempered by
meager MUCAPE overnight, generally <1000J/kg south of I-80. The
greatest risk tonight looks to be locally heavy rainfall, especially
across portions of southwest Nebraska where the greatest
accumulations occurred last night and this morning. These storms
will persist into early Monday morning, before ending by early
afternoon.

Additional scattered thunderstorm development is then possible near
the HWY 20 corridor Monday afternoon, near a surface warm front
draped near the SD/NE border. Instability will again be meager at
best, and should limit any threat for strong to severe storms. The
persistent low stratus in place across portions of the area today
should gradually erode tomorrow, and this should boost temperatures
back into the middle to upper 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Surface high pressure will slowly trek eastward into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley by Tuesday, with southerly flow returning to the
area. till, warm advection remains weak, and temperatures look to
remain below average for much of the upcoming week. Some moderation
in temperature is expected into late week, with highs climbing back
into the upper 70s to near 80 across the area. With northwest flow
expected to persist aloft through much of the week, near daily
threats for showers and thunderstorms will likely continue as well.
Any severe threat will be tied to how much instability will be in
place, and lends low confidence in any threat for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Expect mainly cloudy skies at both the KLBF and KVTN terminals
over the next 24 hours. At the KLBF terminal, ceilings will fall
from around 3000 FT AGL to 1500 FT AGL later tonight. Ceilings
will then increase to 3500 to 7000 Monday morning with broken
ceilings continuing into the afternoon hours. At the KVTN
terminal, sky cover will become broken late this evening with
ceilings ranging from 5000 to 10000 FT AGL through Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Buttler