641
FXUS63 KLBF 040531
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1231 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions and strong south winds
  expected Saturday.

- Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
  across western Nebraska Saturday evening.

- After a cool start to next week, temperatures will gradually
  warm through the week with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Potent shortwave digging southward through California and Nevada
this afternoon will begin to shift eastward tonight. Surface low
pressure will continue to deepen across northeast Colorado this
evening and then shift northeastward toward central South Dakota
Saturday as the shortwave begins to eject toward the central and
northern plains. A surface trough will trail back to the southwest
from the low across northwest Nebraska, meanwhile a cold front will
be surging across the Panhandle. Strong southerly winds will be in
place through the day to the east of the nearly stationary surface
trough. As temperatures warm into the upper 80s to near 90, relative
humidity values will fall into the 18-28% range across much of the
area east of the trough. Have opted for a Red Flag Warning due to
the fall harvest underway and grasses which continue to dry and
cure. The western portion of the Red Flag Warning (western Sandhills
region) has the potential for some dry lightning strikes late in the
afternoon into the evening. See the Fire Weather Discussion below
for further details.

The airmass just ahead of the surface trough will be quite dry with
surface dew points in the lower to mid 40s. This is due to drier air
being advected in from western Kansas and eastern Colorado. The more
moist air will be displaced from the surface trough, with mid 50s to
lower 60s dew points remaining east of Highway 83. Nevertheless,
with such dynamics and forcing aloft, a line of thunderstorms should
erupt during the late afternoon or early evening near the surface
trough across the eastern Panhandle . At the onset, some dry
lightning strikes will be of concern. The mid and upper level
moisten fairy quickly during the evening and more rainfall is
expected from the storms by mid-evening as the move north-
northeastward. Isolated damaging wind gusts look to be the main
severe weather threat with these storms. Deep mixing will allow the
stronger winds aloft to easily mix to the surface within the
convection. It is uncertain as to how far east these storms will
get Saturday evening. The upper forcing quickly moves northeast into
the Dakotas, but there will be at least some potential for an
isolated strong storm or two making it as far east as Highway 83 by
mid-evening. A cold front will make it`s way across the area
overnight Saturday night with the front settling south of the area
across Kansas Sunday night. Convection is likely to develop north of
the boundary late Sunday night as lift/FGEN increase north of the
front as the LLJ intensifies. Most of this/heavier rainfall will
stay to the southeast of the area but do have at least some chance
pops across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Upper level ridging aloft looks to take shape as we head into next
week. A small quick moving shortwave does cross the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. This could bring a small chance for showers
but nothing in the way of much measurable rainfall is expected.
Expect a cool start to the week behind the departing weekend system.
Then, as the upper level ridging takes hold, a return to highs in
the mid 70s ar expected by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

LLWS is expected across portions of southwest Nebraska into
the Sandhills and central Nebraska through early Saturday
morning with gust up to 45 kts. Surface winds will remain strong
through the entire forecast period, generally out of the south around
10 to 15 kt with gust around 25 kts through this morning. Winds
will increase Saturday late morning through evening around 15
to 20 kts with gust near 30 kts out of the south to southwest.
There will also be a chance for showers and thunderstorms this
evening, confidence remains low in how widespread the coverage
will be, but greatest time period for showers/thunderstorms will
be in the late evening for both KLBF and KVTN terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Critical fire weather conditions expected Saturday afternoon and
evening across all fire districts in western and north central
Nebraska.

Tonight...southerly winds 10 to 20 mph with some gusts to 25 mph at
times will keep the boundary layer mixed. Humidity recovery will be
limited to 60 to 70 percent.

Saturday...critical fire weather conditions expected. H7 heights
tighten up as a deep upper trough moves across Wyoming and Colorado
during the afternoon. H85 winds with a south southwesterly component
indicate some drying out, and with deep mixing, bufkit soundings
support surface dewpoints falling into the low to mid 40s across
southwest Nebraska into portions of north central Nebraska.
Southerly winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph will be
common during the afternoon, and will remain strong through mid
evening. Temperatures will once again climb into the upper 80s to
near 90F, or 10-20F above normal. Afternoon humidity will fall to as
low as 18 percent in zone 210 and 219, and 20 percent in zones 204,
206, and 210. Zone 208 and 209 fall to around 25 percent. Grassland
fuels were reported as partial cured on Monday. However, with very
warm and dry conditions and increasing winds today into Saturday,
fuels are likely trending toward mostly cured in some areas. Due to
the combination of strong southerly winds gusting to around 45 mph
and low humidity with fuels receptive to large fire growth, have
issued a Red Flag Warning for all fire zones from 17Z until 03Z.

Another concern with be the potential for dry lighting beginning
late afternoon until mid evening across zones 204 and 210 in the
west as rainfall will be very limited initially. Strong outflow
winds possible from any showers or thunderstorms with the lower
levels quite dry. A strong cold front will move through after
midnight with good humidity recovery overnight to 80 to near 100
percent. Wetting rains during the evening remain limited. Though
portions of the western Sandhills could see wetting rains, this is
not expected to be expansive and appears likely to be limited to
mainly Zone 204, where a tenth to quarter inch is forecast.

Beyond Saturday...fire weather concerns will again remain limited as
cooler temperatures settle in for a few days. Occasional rain
chances exist in the extended forecast though mostly dry
conditions should prevail. Temperature do moderate by late week
but confidence in precise temperatures is limited at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT
/9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg