716
FXUS63 KLBF 110838
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to high confidence in below normal temperatures Thursday
  and Thursday night.

- Low confidence in sub-severe showers and thunderstorms Friday
  night.

- A cooler and drier airmass spreads into the area this weekend.
  Moderating temperatures expected early next week, with above
  average readings returning by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Lingering showers will continue through mid-morning especially
across extreme north central Nebraska. Surface high pressure will
fully settle into the region by late morning giving way to drier
conditions for the afternoon. Cloudy conditions in the morning will
give way to sunny skies for the afternoon. Cold air advection behind
the departing system the previous night will push 850 mb
temperatures in the 9 to 13 C range into north central Nebraska.
This will keep highs on the cooler side of guidance (5 to 10 degrees
below normal) with forecasted temperatures only in the low to mid
70s. Despite lower RH values across southwest Nebraska and some
breezy northwest wind gusts, the cooler temperatures will generally
keep fire conditions low across the region.

Dry conditions continue into Thursday night as high pressure
continues to push into the region. Continued CAA into the region
into Thursday night will keep overnight lows nearly 10 degrees
cooler than the previous few days. Expect temperatures to drop into
the mid 40s Thursday night which are nearly 5 to 10 degrees below
normals for this time of year.

For Friday, another relatively dry day is expected, however, high
pressure will slowly begin to slide to the east by late afternoon.
Some marginal instability across portions of central and eastern
Nebraska will result in an environment favorable for some nighttime
convection on Friday night. While not expecting severe storms at
this time, some isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop east
of US-83 after Midnight. Any showers and storms will push east of
the region by sunrise Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Canadian airmass will sink southward into much of the Plains. This
will be located to the north of a stationary front that will stall
across northern TX into the southeast U.S. This is where the better
low-level moisture and chances for rainfall will reside. As
mentioned it will be cool, with temperatures well below normal. In
fact, highs may struggle out of the 60s on Sunday. Lows will be
quite cool as well, in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday night.
Northwest flow aloft and limited return Gulf moisture through the
middle of next week appears to keep the weather quiet in terms of
convection. Some hint that this could change by the end of the week,
but this is just beyond the forecast period. Temperatures will
gradually moderate, with highs back into the 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central today. These will be a few scattered TSTMS early this
morning prior to sunrise. A cold front will cross the area with
gusty northwest wind developing around sunrise and continuing
though the day. Winds of 20-25 kts with higher gusts are
anticipated. Winds quickly diminish this evening and become
light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Elevated to perhaps briefly near-critical fire weather conditions
are expected this afternoon across far southwest Nebraska into the
Nebraska Panhandle. Gusty northwest winds will develop this morning
and continue through the day behind a cold front. Highs today will
be cooler behind the front, in the lower to mid 70s. Rather poor
humidity recovery tonight will lead to a near or perhaps critical
fire weather day across much of the area Friday. Some areas have
received beneficial rainfall this past week, but other areas have
not. The green-up does continue, but much slower for areas that have
not received as much rainfall.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor