805
FXUS63 KLBF 190544
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1244 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms is expected through
this evening with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday with highs
rising into the 90s before dropping into the 80s for the end of the
week.

- Rain and thunderstorms return Friday and into the weekend, but the
severe risk is uncertain.

- Much cooler temperatures return for the weekend and into early
next week with highs dropping into the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Lingering showers and storms across southwest Nebraska will continue
through mid-afternoon before more organized convection moves in by
late afternoon. These storms are expected to develop across
northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming and move into the Panhandle
by late afternoon. As storms move eastward, they will encounter an
area of higher instability (CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg,
steep low level lapse rates, and an area of shear around 30 knots)
providing enough support for widely scattered severe storms by early
evening. Some moderate shear will also be present which may result
in some large hail (up to 2 inches possible). Otherwise, the
greatest threat with these storms will be damaging winds as storms
move eastward into southwest and south central Nebraska. While the
severe threat should great diminish after Midnight CT, thunderstorms
and widespread showers may persist through the overnight hours.

There is some concerns that the latest CAMs show a slight southward
shift in the strongest thunderstorms as well as convection in
general. Persistent showers across southwest Nebraska for much
of the day as well as cloud cover may have hindered the best
instability across our region. Although, the latest meso
guidance still suggests there is sufficient instability across
our southern row of counties (Chase, Hayes, Frontier) which may
provide just enough support to be clipped by a severe storm or
two. While we`re not entirely out of the woods yet, confidence
in widespread severe storms is decreasing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Upper level ridging along with surface high pressure will begin to
build across the western US by Tuesday. This will bring a return to
quieter and drier weather through the middle of the week as surface
high pressure builds into the central Plains. In addition to drier
weather, this ridge will also keep above normal (upper 80s)
temperatures across the region. Expect highs to rise into the 90s
across much of north central and western Nebraska through Thursday.

Near daily thunderstorms return Friday night and into the weekend.
At this time, confidence in locations of impact and timing is low
and therefore, the severe potential is uncertain at this time, but a
stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out completely with small hail
and strong wind gusts being the main threats.

In addition to rain chances by the end of the week, cooler air will
also return. Plenty of clouds and potentially isolated rain showers
or thunderstorms during the day will drop high temperatures back
into the 80s for Friday and into the upper 70s to low 80s for the
weekend. Low temperatures will also drop into the mid to upper 50s
by the weekend which near normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain light tonight around 5 kts or less, variable at times.
Then winds will be out of the south by mid morning around 5 to
10 kts before becoming east southeasterly in the afternoon
around 5 to 10 kts. Skies will be mostly clear on Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez