040
FXUS63 KLBF 040638
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
138 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather weather concerns Friday afternoon.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances Friday morning/evening and
  again Saturday.

- High pressure aloft to the southeast will promote warmer temperatures
  much of next week though precipitation chances will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The main concerns will be thunderstorm chances this morning and an
isolated chance tonight. Along with thunderstorm chances on
Saturday. Elevated fire weather concerns are also possible Friday
afternoon. A weak boundary across portions of northern Nebraska will
be the focus for thunderstorm chances this morning. A few of the
CAMs have hinted at the early morning convection being confined
mostly to the northwest Sandhills. Confidence is low in convection
initiation, especially with limited moisture, thus kept PoPs
confined generally around 15 percent. There is the potential could
see some shower/thunderstorm activity this evening as well generally
across our far eastern portion of the CWA, but at this time, the
better environment looks to be east into central Nebraska.

As for Friday elevated fire weather concerns, generally for areas
west of HWY 83 where drier air will be in place and min RH will
range near 25 to 30 percent. Winds will also be breezy out of the
southeast around 15 to 20 mph sustained and gusts around 30 mph or
greater, however the corridor where the strong winds around 20 mph
sustained and up to 30 mph wind gusts, will generally be HWY 83 and
eastward, thus east of the area with the lower RH.

As for Saturday a SW trof will move eastward into Nebraska. MU CAPE
values will range from around 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the afternoon. At
this time thunderstorm coverage during the day will remain mostly
isolated, but heading into the evening and overnight hours may
become more scattered to widespread as the LLJ strengthens.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Saturday Night...Ridge axis will sit immediately east of the local
area with prominent southwesterly flow across the spine of the
Rockies and spilling onto the High Plains. A subtle shortwave will
lift north and east as it crosses overtop the dome of high pressure
aloft situated across the southern Plains. This feature will
interact with moderate to strong instability and ample moisture as
PWATs exceed 1.25" for much of the area. Weak shear should preclude
a greater threat for severe weather but locally heavy rain will be
possible. Forecast soundings depict skinny instability within a
highly saturated profile where mid-level RH is near 80%. Mean winds
in the cloud layer peak around 18 knots and with a strengthening LLJ
late, moisture advection and relatively slow storm motions could
lead to some locally heavy rain concerns. Deterministic solutions,
particularly the GFS/ECMWF synoptic models, depict fairly expansive
coverage of 0.50" or greater QPF. Ensemble solutions back this up
with reasonable coverage of 50% or greater potential to exceed
0.10". Typically, ensembles do not resolve thunderstorm rainfall
intensity well so feel this is probably underdoing the potential a
bit. Further evaluation of higher percentile output shows the
potential ceiling better with 90th percentile output showing 0.50-
0.75"+ across the area.

Sunday and beyond...upper flow will flatten as longwave trough moves
ashore the Pacific Northwest. Multiple lead impulses will
traverse the southwesterly flow across the northern and central
Rockies with glancing blows to western Nebraska. This will favor
continued rain and thunderstorm chances early in the week. This
will peak around the Sunday and Monday evening timeframe as the
lead-up to and eventual frontal passage should lead to more
widespread rain and thunderstorm potential. Current PoPs each
evening climb to around 50- 70% but NBM QPF probabilities show
greater confidence in Monday evening where potential for > 0.25"
surpasses 30%. As strong troughing begins to translate west to
east across southern Canada, ridging over the Southeast CONUS
will retrograde with increasing height anomalies (potentially
exceeding 2 sigma) over southern Nebraska. The ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index highlights greatest temperature anomalies over
the lower Missouri/Mississippi Valleys, closer to the center of
high pressure aloft. Even with that said, temperatures should
largely favor above normal values through the extended period
with highs remaining in the 80s to lower 90s (roughly 5-10,
perhaps 15F above normal any one day). Placement of ridge axis
by late week varies notably between mid-range guidance. This
will have profound implications on the extended forecast with
the difference being general zonal flow or southwesterly flow,
the latter of which would be more favorable for rain potential.
Until guidance can hone in on a more precise outcome, confidence
in precise details beyond Day 5 will remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast.

Shallow fog has been noted across central Nebraska. Recent high
resolution guidance suggests this may fill in across the Platte
Valley with possible minor impacts at LBF. Will monitor trends
before throwing in any mention. Outside of this, will carry
prevailing VFR with only mid-level clouds through late Friday
night. Daytime gusty winds will develop for much of the area
with gusts around 20 to 25 knots likely before diminishing late
in the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ