243
FXUS63 KLBF 151732
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected through this afternoon, before a
  slight chance (15-25%) exists for showers and thunderstorms to
  enter the western Sandhills this evening.

- A more widespread threat for thunderstorms is expected
  tomorrow, as a cold front approaches the area. These storms
  could be strong to severe, with a threat for damaging wind
  gusts, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Showers and thunderstorms persist into late week, with
  increasing confidence in substantial accumulations (1.5-2.0")
  through the end of the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Currently, a narrow band of patchy fog has developed just east of
HWY 83 and south of HWY 2, in the vicinity of a weak surface frontal
boundary. This fog will persist through sunrise across portions of
central Nebraska, before quickly eroding.

Dry conditions are then expected to prevail through much of the day,
as subsidence increases aloft due to height rise behind the
departing upper low responsible for today`s precipitation. With
southerly flow strengthening under clear skies, temperatures
rebound back into the lower to middle 80s across the area. By
late this afternoon, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected across the higher terrain of Wyoming. A few of these
showers and thunderstorms may survive into the western Sandhills
and Pine Ridge vicinity by late evening. That said, these
should provide little in the way of impacts, as they should
quickly weaken as they enter the area.

Attention then turns to an upper low ejecting out of the
Intermountain West into the Dakotas by Tuesday evening. An
associated surface low will eject across South Dakota through the
afternoon, with a surface cold front moving into the western
Sandhills. The arrival of the upper shortwave looks to lag peak
heating and arrive late evening, keeping deep layer shear modest.
That said, ample instability will be in place ahead of the surface
cold front, and scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is
expected late Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear vectors remain
oriented largely boundary parallel, and should promote quick upscale
growth along the surface front. As storms congeal, a threat for
damaging wind gusts could develop across much of the area into
Tuesday evening. This could also lead to a threat for locally heavy
rainfall, especially in any areas that experience training. PWAT
values again climb above the 90th percentile climo, exceeding 1" for
much of the area. Ensemble guidance has begun to latch onto this
threat as well, with 24 hour probabilities of >0.50" of QPF
increasing to as high as 70-90% for much of the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska through Wednesday afternoon. Any threat for large
hail looks to be brief, and would be prior to upscale growth.
Precipitation persists into early Wednesday morning, both ahead and
behind the surface cold front, as post-frontal low-level flow
turns upscale.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

By Wednesday, the upper low begins to pass overhead, with widespread
showers and thunderstorms persisting within the deformation axis.
The upper low then begins to slowly cut off nearby into Thursday,
and keep a persistent threat for precipitation going across the
area. Combine this with anomalous moisture remaining in place
(PWATs above 90th percentile) and confidence is growing in
substantial rainfall amounts across the area. In fact, recent
ensemble mean QPF values show amounts in excess of 1.5-2.0" for
the entirety of western and north central Nebraska through
Friday afternoon. This translates to QPF probabilities of >1.0"
peaking above 70-80% for most of the area. Long story short,
impactful rainfall accumulations are looking increasingly likely
for the entirety of western and north central Nebraska through
the end of the workweek. This persistently rainy and cloudy
pattern will also lead to much cooler conditions, with highs
struggling to climb out of the upper 60s each day Wednesday
through Friday.

Drier conditions finally return for the weekend, as the upper low
begins to push off to the east and shortwave ridging moves overhead.
This will also bring moderating temperatures, with highs returning
to the upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast
period.

Dry conditions will prevail Monday with only passing high clouds
likely across the region. Tonight, strengthening flow off the
surface will promote LLWS at VTN but magnitudes should remain
low enough at LBF to preclude mention. Various short-term
guidance hints on patchy fog early Tuesday morning and so added
a mention to LBF where the valley may better shelter the
terminal from stronger southeasterly flow. Even so, capped
impacts to MVFR.

Thereafter, expect a quick return to VFR conditions with breezy
southeast winds gusting around 20 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...NMJ