624
FXUS63 KLBF 201136
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is expected across
much of north central Nebraska on today and Monday for much of the
forecast area.

- Near daily rain and thunderstorms continue Tuesday through next
week, but the severe risk is uncertain.

- Very hot temperatures arrive for the beginning of the week with
the potential for heat indices in the low 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Lingering showers and storms continue across the region through
sunrise before dissipating. Not anticipating any severe storms with
these early storms, but additional storms are expected to develop
again by late afternoon and last through the evening as a trough
moves through the region. An area of higher instability (CAPE values
near 3000 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, and an area of shear
greater than 40 knots) will be present across much of southwest
Nebraska and into the Sandhills which will provide enough support
for isolated severe storms by late afternoon. Convection is
anticipated to start between 20Z and 23Z across portions of
southwest Nebraska and into the Sandhills before tracking east into
the evening hours. Some of the latest CAMs suggest a secondary round
of thunderstorms moving southeast out of South Dakota into northern
Nebraska by mid-evening. The greatest threats with these storms will
be large hail in discrete supercells across southwest Nebraska with
damaging wind gusts being the main threat in the northern storms.

For temperatures, warmer temperatures begin to creep into the
Panhandle and northwest this afternoon with highs in the 80s east of
US-183 and highs in the low 90s west of US-183.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

An another round of severe storms is possible again on Monday
evening. With enough instability present during the day, widely
scattered storms are expected to develop across the Panhandle by
early evening with large hail and stronger wind gusts possible as
the storms move eastward into southwest Nebraska and the eastern
Panhandle. While the severe risk ends by Midnight CT, storms will
linger across much of the overnight period before pushing into
eastern Nebraska by sunrise.

Near daily isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will continue
Tuesday through the end of the week as several disturbances move
through the region. At this time, confidence in locations of impact
and timing is low and therefore, the severe potential is low at this
time, but a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out completely
with small hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats. Heavy
rainfall is also a concern, especially on Wednesday night and into
Thursday where the latest probabilities show the potential of seeing
over 1 inch of rainfall near 25 to 30 percent across portions of the
Sandhills. While not a significant number, it is an area to watch
over the next few days for possible increases in heavy rainfall and
possible localized flooding. Will continue to monitor severe
potential over the next few days as models get a better handle on
the environment.

In addition to shower and thunderstorm potential, a much warmer
airmass will bring an increase in temperatures through much of next
week. With 850 mb temperatures in the 26 to 32 C range, widespread
surface highs in the 90s are expected for Monday and Tuesday. These
warm temperatures combined with increased moisture will raise heat
indices into the low 100s across portions of north central and into
central Nebraska. Temperatures will cool slightly on Wednesday
through the remainder of the week which should help eliminate heat
index concerns after Tuesday. At this time, no heat headlines have
been issued, but may be necessary if the warming trend remains
persistent. Stay tuned to later forecasts especially if you have
outdoor plans early this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Fog will continue across portions of the Sandhills through mid-
morning. While visibility will drop to a mile or less in the
Sandhills, both terminals should only experience visibility
restrictions down to 2 miles. Ceilings improve as fog
dissipates shortly after sunrise. The next chance of
thunderstorms arrives by late afternoon across southwest
Nebraska. Storms will remain isolated and confidence in storms
impacting KLBF is low, but any storm does have the potential for
strong winds and hail as well as heavy rainfall.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik