151
FXUS63 KLBF 220530
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening, a few strong to severe storms possible

- Heat Advisory in effect until 8pm this evening

- Hot temperatures continue Tuesday

- Additional storm chances through the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The main concern in the short term is once again the
chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become strong to severe this afternoon
and evening may be possible. There are potentially two areas of
focus for potential thunderstorms development with a sfc trof across
southwest Nebraska into KS and a warm front draped over northern
Nebraska.

For southwest Nebraska where the sfc trof is located
confidence is fairly low in seeing thunderstorms development.
Although there is good moisture ahead of it, with much drier air
behind it, but forcing is weak and current thinking is thunderstorm
development will struggle in southwest Nebraska but may be better
south into near the KS/NE border.

The second area of concern is along the vicinity of the warm
front which is currently near Alliance to Valentine to Lynch and
eastward. CAPE in the vicinity of the warm front is around 2500
to 3000 J/kg, shear is pretty marginal so any thunderstorm that
does form will have to become pretty robust to become strong to
severe, which keeps confidence more moderate in only an
isolated threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening.

As for the heat, will continue the Heat Advisory through 8pm CT
tonight as temperatures are in the upper 80s to mid 90s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s for areas in the advisory.

For Tuesday, the upper level ridge will begin to move slightly
eastward but will still see warmer temperatures under the ridge in
the 90s. As for any heat advisories for Tuesday, confidence remains
a little more uncertain in the potential for widespread heat indices
over 100, thus after collaboration with neighboring offices has
decided to hold off on any heat headlines for Tuesday as of right
now.

There will once again be another isolated potential for
thunderstorms Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The greatest
threat for storm development will be across the northwest Sandhills
in the vicinity of a sfc trof. This will again be another weakly
force environment thus keeping confidence low at this time in both
the development of storms Tuesday afternoon/evening and the threat
of strong to severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

A trof will move through the High Plains Wednesday and
this could potential be the focus for more scattered to potentially
widespread thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additional
chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday as a SW trof moves across the High Plains. Additional low-
end daily chances will be possible through the weekend as we stay in
a somewhat active pattern with a couple weak disturbances across the
High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Tuesday night. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across western Nebraska,
with a threat for brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic
winds. Some threat for storms may persist into Tuesday night.

Winds remain southerly through the valid period, at around 10 to
20kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Brown