166
FXUS63 KLBF 020524
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight and again on
  Saturday. There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for western
  portions of the forecast area tonight and southwestern
  portions of the forecast area for Saturday.

- Temperatures will be relatively cool this weekend with highs ranging
  from the mid 70s to middle 80s. Temperatures will begin an
  upward climb Monday with 90s arriving across the area for the
  remainder of the work week.

- Precipitation chances will decrease next week as ridging
  builds east of the central and southern Rockies.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

H5 analysis this morning had a ridge which extended from eastern
Wyoming north into southern portions of the NW Territories of
Canada. East of the ridge, a trough extended from western Quebec
south into the eastern Great Lakes. Further west, low pressure
was located over the Gulf of Alaska with a trough extending
south into the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Oregon and
Washington State. On the western periphery of the ridge,
shortwaves were noted over eastern Oregon, northern Montana and
southeastern Montana. Another shortwave was noted over eastern
Utah. At the surface this afternoon, high pressure was anchored
over Minnesota into northern Iowa. A stationary front extended
along the eastern slopes of the Rockies from central Montana,
south-southeast into eastern Wyoming and along the front range
of Colorado. East of the front, mainly cloudy skies were noted
with southeasterly and south-southeasterly winds across western
and north central Nebraska. At 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from
69 degrees at Ainsworth and Thedford, to 76 degrees at Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Thunderstorm chances and severe potential highlight the main
forecast issues over the next 36 hours. For tonight, mid level
disturbances approaching from the west and southwest, will cross
the Rockies into the early evening hours and interact with the
stationary front off to the west of the forecast area. This will
lead to the development of thunderstorms over the higher
mountains of Colorado and Wyoming. This activity will transition
east and southeast this evening. The threat for severe storms
will increase INVOF the front and to the east of this feature as
storms move into a moister environment. Mid level lapse rates
across the panhandle into NE Colorado and far eastern Wyoming
are favorable for large hail. These mid level lapse rates
decrease quickly east of the panhandle so for the CWA, the
eastern panhandle would see the greatest threat for large hail.
As for the wind threat, this should extend east to a line from
Hayes Center, to Cody. Although, with a continued stable low
layer noted east of the panhandle ie. cooler temps and stratus,
the wind threat should decrease after sunset and as you
transition east. As for precipitation chances will favor the far
west and southwest with highest pops, however cannot totally
rule out pops transitioning into central and eastern areas later
tonight. This potential activity appears possible given the
presence of a low level jet tonight, which will be oriented
along the highway 83 corridor. For Saturday, the stationary
front should begin to transition east as a warm front into the
panhandle as surface high pressure begins to transition east of
the Mississippi River. Like the expected setup for tonight,
storms should develop INVOF of the higher terrain along the
front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming and track east. With the
front expected to be farther east Saturday, the severe threat
should be further east as well. Current model trends develop
activity across the Cheyenne Ridge and drops this east and
southeast into northeastern Colorado. Other CAMS develop
discrete storms over western Nebraska and the Sandhills Saturday
evening and drop this activity south. With little agreement
between the timing of the CAMS and location of storms, not
overly confident to the eastward extent of storms across the
high plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

The thunderstorm threat will migrate east on Sunday along with
the warm front. Highs Sunday will range from around 80 in the
east to the middle to upper 80s in the west. Once again, we
should see some storm initiation off to the west of the forecast
area with this activity transitioning east into the evening
hours. With the front further east a larger portion of the
forecast area will see better chances for precipitation Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. After Monday, the threat for
precipitation will decrease across the area as upper level high
pressure builds onto the central and southern Plains. The latest
GFS and EC ensemble QPF forecast really dries up after Monday.
In fact zero members have measurable precipitation for LBF for
Tuesday through Friday next week. In addition to drier
conditions, temperatures will reach well into the 90s mid week
and are expected to persist through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across most of western and
north central Nebraska, as a band of showers and thunderstorms track
east across the region. With this new moisture, particularly across
southwest Nebraska, ceilings are expected to gradually lower
throughout the night, eventually becoming MVFR in the predawn hours.
MVFR conditions are expected to persist into the early afternoon,
when ceilings improve and VFR conditions return across the region.
Winds will remain quite gusty across western and north central
Nebraska tomorrow, with southerly winds gusting to 25 knots or
greater. Also, smoke from wildfires is expected to continue to
produce hazy skies, with potential reductions in visibility at the
surface, though these are expected to remain VFR visibilities.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie