770
FXUS63 KLBF 251120
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) exists for both today (Friday)
  and tomorrow (Saturday), primarily across western Nebraska.
  Damaging winds will be the main hazard.

- Temperatures warm into the upper 90s to low 100s by this
  weekend and early next week, with an increasing threat for
  dangerous heat indices.

- A cold front arrives into Tuesday, with a return of
  thunderstorms and cooler temperatures (Highs in 70s to 80s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Currently, patchy fog is overspreading portions of central Nebraska,
near and just ahead of a weak outflow boundary from earlier
convection. Fog has been slower to develop behind this outflow,
though some westward expansion has been noted over the last half
hour or so. Guidance suggests that a threat for patchy dense fog
will persist for areas primary east of HWY 83 through sunrise,
quickly ending by late morning. The cloud cover will be a little
more persistent than the fog today, with at least scattered to
broken coverage as it slowly erodes from west to east this
afternoon. This will delay the warmup one more day, keeping highs in
the 80s across the area.

By late this afternoon, at least modest instability will be in place
across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills, ahead of a weak
frontal boundary draped across the far western Panhandle. This could
lead to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development across
the Panhandle by late afternoon, though confidence in this is low.
High-res guidance hints at this potential, though little to no
agreement exists in both coverage and placement of any thunderstorms
this evening. With this in mind, have introduced slight chance POPs
(15-20%) near and west of HWY 61, in closer proximity to the weak
frontal boundary. Any storms that do form will encounter a well
mixed environment across the Panhandle, and this could lead to
a risk for damaging wind gusts. Deep layer shear looks to remain
pretty meager, with H5 winds only on the order of 10-20kts and
largely temper the threat for hail. Storms should wane into the
evening, as inhibition increases near and after sunset.

A much warmer day is then expected for Saturday, as strengthening
warm advection boosts H7-H85 temperatures towards the 90th
percentile. This points towards a return of the 90s across the
entire area. Will have to monitor the threat for dangerous heat
indices across portions of north central Nebraska, where the richest
humidity will combine with the warmer temperatures. A sharpening
dryline across the eastern Panhandle should promote greater
thunderstorm coverage across the Sandhills Saturday afternoon. Weak
mid-level flow will lead to meager deep layer shear, though deep
inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will again be in place. Much like
Friday, the primary threat with storms will be damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Persistent warm advection will boost temperatures again on
Sunday and Monday, as a large upper ridge moves overhead. Highs
both days will be well into the 90s, with a threat for low 100s
across southwest Nebraska each afternoon. This, combined with
increased humidity, looks to lead to dangerous heat index values
(in excess of 100F) for areas along and east of HWY 83 both
Sunday and Monday. In fact, portions of north central Nebraska
may see heat index values approach/exceed 105F. Dangerous heat
is beginning to look more likely to end the weekend, and heat
headlines may be needed soon for much of the area.

By Tuesday, a cold front will begin to push into the area, bringing
a return of cooler temperatures and a threat for more widespread
thunderstorms. The exact timing of this front remains low confidence
for now, and will determine if any heat concerns linger locally.
This also marks a return of northwesterly flow aloft into middle and
late week, as the large upper ridge slowly retrogrades west. The
pattern looks to become more favorable for near daily thunderstorms,
and this potential will need to be monitored closely for an
increasing risk for severe weather.&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Dissipating thunderstorms to the west of the terminals are not
expected to bring any impacts to either LBF or VTN.

Main concern going forward is threat for fog/low stratus. Fog
continues to fluctuate across central Nebraska and LBF has noted
modest visibility decreases. Believe patchy valley fog cannot be
ruled out at LBF but magnitudes are likely to only fall to MVFR
criteria. Did remove low stratus from VTN but will need to
monitor trends going forward. Expect diurnal cumulus at LBF but
only passing high clouds otherwise with dry conditions through
the valid forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Low stratus and fog persists into late morning across much of
central and north central Nebraska, with IFR/locally LIFR CIGs
and visibilities expected. By early afternoon, VFR conditions
return and are expected to prevail into tonight. Expansion in
low stratus is again possible into early Saturday morning, and
trends will need to be monitored.

Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, at around 10 to
20kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ027>029-
038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown