933
FXUS63 KLBF 081123
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
523 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall moves up from the south today and
  continues across central and western Nebraska thorugh
  Saturday before tapering off Saturday evening.

- Rainfall amounts will vary a good deal from north to south
  with an 80 percent chance for an inch or more of rainfall
  generally along and south of INterstate 80, but only a 50
  percent chance for half an inch or more up along the South
  Dakota border.

- Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures return by the end
  of the weekend and continue through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Significant deep layer moisture transport continues across the
Plains ahead of a closed low over the southwest US with clouds
continuing to surge northward across central and western Nebraska.
The vertically stacked low will slowly eject northeastward tonight
and cross Nebraska tomorrow. Diffluence aloft along with mid level
deformation and isentropic lift ahead of the approaching low will
generate significant synoptic lift, and with precipitable water
values nearing maximum values around one inch the result will be
widespread precipitation spreading up form the south today through
tonight and into Saturday.

The heaviest precipitation will occur tonight before moisture aloft
wanes as we get into the dry slot, though lighter precipitation
will continue in abundant low level moisture through Saturday
before winding down Saturday evening as the slow moving low
finally moves off to our east. Rainfall will be widespread
though there will be a good deal of variation north to south.
Probabilistic guidance shows high confidence with an 80 percent
chance for rainfall amounts of an inch or more generally along
and south of Interstate 80, though the signal tapers to only a
50 percent chance for amounts of half an inch or more up along
the South Dakota border.

While temperatures across northeast Nebraska around the Niobrara
valley will be at or slightly above normal today, the approaching
low will keep cool air locked in across southwest Nebraska where
highs today will only be in the lower 40s and lows tonight will
range from the upper 30s southwest to lower 40s northeast. Bufkit
profiles this evening as the heaviest precipitation pushes up from
the south indicate temperatures near the surface and through the
boundary layer across far southwest Nebraska and the western
sandhills into the panhandle will remain warm enough to prevent a
transition to wintry ptypes though this will be a very near miss
with any ptype issues with accumulating snowfall expected to remain
down in Colorado and in the western panhandle. Will be keeping a
close eye on this to see if precipitation rates can induce enough
dynamic cooling to yield wintry ptypes and accumulating snowfall
west of Hwy 61 this evening/early tonight. With abundant cloud cover
and lingering rainfall temperatures rise very little and remain in
the 40s on Saturday. Clearing skies as the low moves off to the east
will allow lows by daybreak Sunday to range from the upper 20s
across the western sandhills to the upper 30s further out toward Hwy
281.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Following our rainfall event, ensemble guidance is in good
agreement in developing a drier low amplitude progressive
pattern over the US through next week with temperatures within a
few degrees either side of normal. There may be an opportunity
for some precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday as a fast
moving upper trof swings through the Plains, but probabilistic
guidance only generates a 30 percent chance for precipitation of
0.01" or more and blended guidance is also quite dry. Will stay
with a dry forecast for now and see how trends develop in the
days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

A broad area of rain showers will gradually push into southwest
Nebraska by late this afternoon, expanding in coverage across
all of western and north central Nebraska late this evening.
Low-end VFR CIGs continue through late this evening, falling to
2000-3000 FT AGL by 00Z Saturday for southern terminals (LBF).
As precipitation expands in coverage through 06Z Saturday, CIGs
and visibilities will continue to lower with widespread IFR and
brief period of LIFR conditions expected for both terminals
through the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and
variable into this afternoon, becoming out of the east at 10 kts
or less with an occasional gust up to 20 kts possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Viken