977
FXUS63 KLBF 261750
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1250 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler, below normal temperatures continue through today.

- Rain showers expected through the weekend with the greatest
potential for severe storms on Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Warmer, near to above normal temperatures return on tonight
lasting through mid-week along with near-daily rain/thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Active weather will continue through tonight as a series of
shortwaves track through the region. Instability generally remains
low, which will keep the potential for severe storms low. However,
embedded thunderstorms is still possible which may produce some
stronger winds or small hail. Overall, the main threats with these
storms will be brief heavy rainfall. Widespread QPF amounts will be
light (generally under a tenth of an inch), but higher amounts will
be possible in any thunderstorms. Here, up to a quarter inch (0.25)
could be possible through tonight.

Cold air advection will continue to push in a cooler airmass into
the central Plains through tonight keeping temperatures below
normal. The combination of this cooler airmass, cloudy skies, and
isolated rain showers will result in temperatures struggling to rise
out of the 50s today. Cloudy skies and the exiting of CAA will keep
temperatures on the warmer side of guidance tonight as compared to
the previous few nights. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid to
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

The greatest potential for severe storms in the next week will occur
on Sunday as a upper level trough pushes through and a low pressure
system develops. In addition to this, a dry line will be present
across the region which will help to create a steep gradient of
dewpoints and moisture across the front. With increased moisture
across portions of our forecast area combined with modest
instability (CAPE values potentially above 2000 J/kg, lapse rates
near 7 C/km, and 0-6 km shear around 50 knots), a favorable
environment will exist for severe thunderstorm development by Sunday
afternoon and evening. While the environment remains favorable,
stratus through much of the morning as well as where the dry line
sets up will determine greatly if storms develop as well as the
location. If storms develop, the potential for them to become severe
is high with the main threats being large hail and strong winds with
a lesser threat of a tornado. There is still significant
inconsistency in the models due to the conditional nature of this
event with several still showing little in the way of storm
development at all. Despite this, will continue to emphasize the
severe potential as SPC guidance supports a similar thinking
highlighting much of north central Nebraska in a slight risk Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. This will continue to be monitored
closely in the upcoming days with additional adjustments to the
forecast likely.

Beyond Sunday, with the exception of Tuesday morning through
Wednesday afternoon, the active weather pattern will continue as
shortwaves continue to track through Nebraska and therefore near-
daily rain and thunderstorm chances are possible. At this time the
severe risk remains uncertain, but with mild temperatures in the 70s
though much of the week and some instability across the region, a
stronger to briefly severe storm will be entirely possible
especially in the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned as we will
continue to monitor the environment headed into next week for the
severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

A stratus deck will continue to linger across much of western
and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. MVFR to IFR
conditions will be expected with LIFR conditions possible
tonight into overnight as patchy fog and drizzle may develop and
drop visibilities. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be
possible this afternoon into the evening. Winds will remain
breezy out of the southeast around 15 to 20 kts with gust up to
30 kts.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez