465
FXUS63 KLBF 031726
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1126 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions return to western and north central
  Nebraska today, and this persists into next week.

- Near record temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty west
  winds will lead to increasing fire weather concerns across
  western Nebraska on Sunday afternoon.

- The next threat for precipitation looks to arrive late next
  week, though confidence in any precipitation remains low
  (10-20%) for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Currently, a weak front bisects the area, with expansive stratus and
patchy fog near and east of HWY 83 ahead of the boundary. Further
west, mostly clear skies and weak westerly winds prevail.
Temperatures range from the middle 20s to low 30s across the area.

For today, an upper level ridge axis will translate overhead, with
increasing subsidence aloft as this occurs. This will lead to clear
skies today, helping to boost temperatures. Combined with this, warm
advection returns, with weak westerly downslope flow establishing
across the area. Highs today range from the lower 40s in north
central Nebraska to near 60 degrees in southwest Nebraska. A weak
warm front lifts across the area tonight, and could lead to
another round of fog development overnight east of HWY 83.

As the upper ridge axis begins to move off to the east, a quick
moving shortwave begins to cross the Rockies. This brings increasing
middle and high cloudiness tonight as moisture streams in aloft,
allowing lows to remain in the upper 20s to 30s. The shortwave
quickly departs late Sunday morning, with skies clearing into
tomorrow afternoon. The low level warm advection regime persists
into tomorrow as well, boosting H85 temperatures back above the 90th
percentile as we head into tomorrow afternoon. As westerly flow
strengthens, enough diurnal mixing will be achieved to push
temperatures into the middle to upper 60s across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska. Deterministic guidance continues to suggest that
the current forecast could be on the low side, and this would have
implications on expected minimum humidity values. This will also tap
into stronger winds aloft, and momentum transfer suggests westerly
gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour tomorrow afternoon near and west of
HWY 83. The combination of near record temperatures, dry conditions
and gusty westerly winds will promote increasing fire concerns,
especially across western Nebraska. This will need to be monitored
closely, and fire headlines could be needed should confidence
grow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Zonal flow prevails aloft as we head into next week, with benign
weather conditions expected to continue locally. The broad warm
advection regime continues as well, keeping daily highs well above
average in the 50s to low 60s each through midweek. Some fire
concerns may continue as well, though confidence in this remains low
for now.

By late week, upper troughing begins to deepen across southern
California, with a separate northern stream trough ejecting into the
Four Corners region by Thursday. In response to this, southwest flow
establishes across the Plains in advance of this low. The
progression of this northern stream trough will drive any threat for
precipitation locally, as it eventually ejects into the central
Plains into Friday. Guidance is in surprisingly good agreement
at this range with respect to the track of the upper low,
keeping it off to the southeast of the area. This solution means
the area would remain in the cold sector, and wintry
precipitation could be an issue. As of now, guidance suggests
the system will remain an open wave, and this could limit
impacts somewhat should this come to fruition. Still, trends
will need to be monitored closely and those with travel plans
late week should pay close attention to future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

At the KLBF and KVTN terminals, FEW-SCT250 this afternoon and
evening, becoming BKN200 06Z-16Z Saturday. Stratus and fog is
possible tonight across eastern portions of north central
Nebraska from 04Z-15Z Saturday, including KONL.

Winds remain light AOB 10KT at KLBF the next 24 hours. At KVTN,
southerly winds increase by 08Z Saturday with gusts to 18KT,
becoming southwest 12Z-18Z Saturday with gusts 20-25KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg