310
FXUS63 KLBF 052339
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
539 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures persist today and tomorrow (Highs
  in 40s), before a cold front arrives Saturday and brings
  colder temperatures for the weekend and early next week.

- Light snow is likely (>55%) late Friday night into Saturday
  near the Pine Ridge, with light accumulations possible near
  and north of Highway 20.

- A stronger cold front arrives Monday, bringing highs in the
  teens and 20s, along with wind chills well below zero early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Currently, a stratus deck continues to slowly erode across portions
of southwest into central and north central Nebraska, with mostly
clear skies noted across much of the eastern Panhandle. Temperatures
thus far remain in the 20s to 30s across the area, with the warm
downslope westerlies (upper 50s to 60s) confined to the western
Panhandle this afternoon.

For tonight and tomorrow, expect the continued erosion of low
stratus as a cold front dives into the area tonight ushering in a
much drier low level airmass. By early tomorrow morning, surface
high pressure will center over central Nebraska and lead to
weakening winds and associated cold advection. Lows tonight fall
into the low teens under mostly clear skies. By late tomorrow
morning, the surface high will migrate southeast of the area, with
southwesterly flow establishing across the area on its western
periphery. This warm advection will both push highs back to above
average in the 40s, and lead to increasing dry air. This will push
humidity values into the upper teens to low 20s tomorrow afternoon,
and could lead to locally elevated fire concerns. However, winds
look to primarily remain under 20 mph tomorrow, tempering the threat
somewhat.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Southerly flow persists into Friday, with another day of highs in
the low to middle 40s. This increasing southeasterly flow is in
response to broad lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado, as a
parent upper shortwave begins to eject across the northern Rockies.
As the surface low ejects across Kansas by Saturday morning, this
will drag a cold front through the area. The parent H7 shortwave
ejects across South Dakota with broad deformation axis snowfall
across much of South Dakota in association. Light snow still looks
likely (>55%) on the southern periphery of this deformation band for
areas near the Pine Ridge, with chances (40-50%) extending eastward
along the HWY 20 corridor. Guidance continues to come into better
agreement with any appreciable snowfall amounts occurring
further north across South Dakota, with just a dusting expected
near and north of HWY 20 at this time. This will be a rather
quick moving system, with snow beginning late Friday night and
ending by late Saturday morning.

This cold front brings highs back to slightly below average (30s)
for the weekend, before a much stronger cold front arrives Monday
evening. This is a consequence of amplifying upper ridging over the
Gulf of Alaska, leading to cross Polar flow by late weekend. This
will promote Arctic airmass intrusion into the central US early next
week, with a return of frigid temperatures. Well below freezing
highs and a threat for morning lows below zero return, along with
wind chill values well below freezing. Some threat for snow will
also exist within this airmass, though confidence wanes with respect
to this. This will need to be monitored however, as a return of
dangerous wind chills are possible along with a threat for
accumulating snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025


Overnight, gusty northwest winds with gusts up to 25 knots across
northern Nebraska will potentially impact KVTN. Winds lessen by mid-
morning with sustained winds of near 10 knots through Thursday
afternoon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through tomorrow
afternoon with winds generally at or below 10 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik